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Brazilian Crop, Russian Wheat, Markets & Rain Days Update 5/7/22


Yesterday, the Brazil ag consulting firm, Safras & Mercado, lowered their Brazilian bean crop estimate from 125.08 to 122.3 million mt (USDA is at 125). They kept their estimate of Brazil’s corn crop steady at 118.13 million mt. USDA is at 116 million mt. The top producing corn state Mato Grosso experienced the driest April in 17 years.

Argentina’s corn crop is about 50% harvested and the bean crop is about 55% harvested. Both crops are rated 16% good or excellent by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE).

Andrey Sizov reports farmers in southern Russia are sitting on more wheat in the bins than any time for the past many years. Many farmers will have to carry them into the new crop year when the export quota expires early this summer. That wheat probably will hit the export market in July when the quota period is over and harvest is full bore.

Brazil’s soybean exports were 28% less in April (11.6 million mt) from a year ago. Furthermore, this is the first year ever that April soybean shipments were less than March soybean exports. A poor crop will diminish exports every year.

Here is some good advice from Josh Linville, StoneX’s fertilizer guy:

The worst thing we can do is lock in some of the highest fertilizer prices we have ever seen 6 - 12 months in advance of application... and then see grain prices tumble. If you lock in an input, lock in an output.

One of our 30+ year clients said today his agronomist asked him what would he have to do to buy wheat futures? The client’s brother also contacted him and asked how to buy wheat futures. A client in Nebraska said his barber asked him how to buy wheat futures. Those of you with a futures account, ask your broker if he has had more people than usual who never traded futures before asking how to open an account to buy wheat. If you have not read the Joe Kennedy Story, you need to. Here it is:


Market Data

This morning:

Crude oil settled at $110.61, up $2.35

The dollar index settled at 103.66, down 0.09

July palm oil settled at 6,400 MYR, down 352. The contract high was made April, 29th at 7,229 MYR. Palm oil owns 36% and soybean oil owns 28% world market share.

December cotton settled at $123.74, down $2.70 per cwt. The contract high was made May, 4th at $129.91 per cwt. Cotton competes with soybeans and corn for acres.

July natural gas settled at $8.128, down 0.713. The contract high was made yesterday at $9.052. Natural gas is the primary cost to manufacture nitrogen fertilizer.

July ULSD settled at $3.7888 per gallon, down 0.0316. The contract high was made May, 5th at $3.9282. ULSD stands for Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.


Rain Days Update

The Western Corn Belt has 1 less rain days in the 10 day forecast than yesterday and the Eastern Corn Belt has 1 less rain daysthan yesterday.

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