BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Carryover, aka carryout, is the amount of old crop grain or oilseed that was not used during the marketing year. The job of the market is to make sure we never run out of food or fiber during every marketing year. When necessary, the market rations all commodities by raising the price so users will use less.     USDA reports the carryovers in terms of millions of bushels for the domestic Supply and Demand (S&D) and in terms of million metric tons (mts) for the world S

Tidbits CBOT Monday deliveries  to be assigned today: Corn   80 to 30 June 2025 bullish Meal 199 to 24 Nov 2025 negative Oil   447 to 20 Nov 2025    negative Oats 120 to 13 Nov 2025    bearish Wheat SRW    0 to 18 Mar 2025 bullish HRW   2 to 11 June 2025 bullish HRS  34 to 24 Nov 2025 friendly WTI: Managed money trades (big specs and index funds) were net short West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures in early October for the first time since 2008. Over the last 12 yea

Tidbits Pre-hedge: Thirty minutes before the CBOT closed yesterday afternoon, December corn was up 2¼¢ and settled up 1¼¢. Not much pre-hedging pressure. Was it because of the weekend rain in the forecast? No late pressure in soybeans futures at all, which would be as expected; essentially bean harvest is over.     Rumor is China will soon auction 3.5 million mts of government owned soybean beans. Historically, China offers government stocks at auction when domestic prices ar

Tidbits Today is when President Trump said his tariffs on various imported products from multiple countries will be announced. The market has probably overestimated the impact of these tariffs.     Yesterday, the USDA reported total crush for February after the CBOT closed. The corn crush was 465 million bushels, down 6% from a year ago; corn crushed for ethanol was 421 million bushels, down 5%. The soybean crush was 189 million bushels, 2% less than a year ago. The canola cr

Highlights Often we have written and said: “The expectation of an event will move the market more than confirmation of that event.”  Yesterday’s market action demonstrated that axiom. For two months, the endless talk has been about many more corn acres and fewer bean acres. That is exactly what the USDA reported. Corn acres were up 5% from 2024, while soybean area was 4% lower. Corn closed higher in most contracts yesterday and beans were down 8 to 9¢.

The reports were: Neutral to Friendly Old Crop Corn Negative New Crop Corn Neutral Soybeans Friendly Wheat 20 Minutes After the Report:...

Highlights India is, by far, the largest world buyer of nitrogen fertilizer and they prefer urea. This past week India finally issued their first urea tender of 2025. It was expected to be issued from late January to the end of February. The nitrogen market-makers have been nervous and nitrogen retailers have been stressed the past few months waiting to see how much urea India would seek to buy and what price they would be willing to pay for it. That information is needed to

Tidbits Yesterday, May corn  futures contract made a new low at $4.42 for “the move” (meaning since the recent high was made at $5.18¾ on 19 February) and then closed higher for the day. Technicians call that a “key reversal” and regard it as a trend changer. While very encouraging, nothing is 100% in this business.     Jason Britt  is President of Central States Commodities. He wrote yesterday:   "Brazil’s corn better get more rain than this before the dry season actually st

Highlights We really do not have a logical explanation why soybeans futures are up 68¢ the past 3 trading days and up $1.06 the past 15 trading days.     South America most likely will harvest the largest crop they have ever harvested. The world carryover is a 116 day supply; it is truly a burden for $10.50 futures. Last year’s world carryover was a 107 day supply and you well remember what a painful experience $9.52 soybean futures were last August. The dollar index was 100.

Highlights Why did corn and beans crash and burn yesterday?   The Weekly Export Sales report issued yesterday morning was terrible as it always is Christmas week. It should never be a surprise, but poor sales Christmas week is always a disappointment.    The House of Representatives was scheduled to select a Speaker yesterday. The last time they tried to elect a Speaker, it took three weeks! Thankfully, after the CBOT closed, Mike Johnson, (R-La.) was re-elected to lead the H

Jon Scheve with weekly market commentary made on September 6, 2024 With harvest nearly in full swing across the US, many farmers are...

Tidbits Last evening it was raining in Northern Iowa and Southern Illinois and moving east to the dry Eastern Corn Belt. Of course, futures prices would be down, but the corn crop yield is pretty well set and beans have a long way to go before that crop is made. NOAA’s August weather outlook is still hot and dry.   Get those August basis and futures contracts rolled before the close tomorrow.   Argentine ag-consultant Pablo Adreani reported Saturday: "The government announced

Highlights China returns to work today after their 15-day Lunar New Year Celebration. Reuters News Service reports there are signs that the China gloom and doom may be lifting, even if only temporarily. Equities have rebounded this year from five-year lows, and official figures on Sunday showed that tourism revenues in the Lunar New Year holidays were 47.3% more than last year and 7.7% more than pre-COVID levels of 2019.   The data will offer relief to financial policy makers

Marketing question from a client (first week of October 2022): Roger, I have about one-third of my soybeans unpriced. Am I better off to...