BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights The CBOT ag markets will not trade until 7 PM Monday evening due to MLK Day. Yesterday morning the European weather model  significantly reduced rainfall amounts for the next 10 days for Argentina. It had predicted 2½ to 3 inches (50-60 mm) before Friday morning's EUR model showed just a half to one inch (10-24 mm) in the Buenos Aires province which includes Salto, the sixth location on our rain day chart. It appears most (maybe all) other forecasters are sticking

Highlights Weather in Argentina is the single most important factor for the price of soybeans from now until the rains start. Argentina’s crop areas saw mostly 100°F (38°C) or higher yesterday as the debate about when the showers will start became the number one topic for the bean market. There is no consensus when the showers will come, but there are plenty of opinions and conflicting forecasts.   Reuter’s World Agriculture Reporter Karen Braun issued this report after the

Tidbits Yesterday, March corn  traded over $4.60 for the first time since late June. South American weather is not improving, but make no mistake, the South American soybean crop  will be overwhelmingly large. The USDA is likely to increase its Brazilian bean production estimate on Friday. It is also reasonable the USDA will reduce corn production in the U.S. and world wide.  Yesterday’s Commitment of Traders Report ( COT ) showed managed money holds the largest net long corn

Tidbits Reuters Karen Braun reported Monday’s U.S. wheat inspections  for export were a 12-week high at 404,000 mts. Wheat inspections since June 1, the beginning of the wheat marketing year, are up 27.2% on the year. The bulk of last week's export inspections occurred in the PNW ports were for Asia-bound cargoes, but none to China.   Reuters also reported Russia’s Exporters  and Producers Union sees total grain exports at 45 million mts, with 40 million of it being wheat. So

Highlights The Equatorial Pacific Surface Water temperature has dropped a half °C the past two reporting weeks and is now 1° below normal. That is why it is turning dry in Argentina and Southern Brazil and so very wet in Northern Brazil where 85% of their beans are grown. That much rain is great for the beans in that sandy soil until they are mature. As you know, soybeans cannot be harvested when the stems are wet or even damp. Harvest will be delayed and the quality of the b

Tidbits The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) was reported yesterday morning. It is the measure of inflation at the wholesale level. It was slightly higher than expected at 0.4% for the month of November. Unemployment claims were 21,000 higher than expected at 242,000. The market continues to expect an interest rate cut Wednesday even though the inflation numbers do not justify it. The market has priced in a 98% chance of a 25 basis points cut next week to 4.25-4.50% on the Fed

Tidbits U.S. inflation  at the retail level increased 0.3% in November, the most in 7 months, but the Federal Reserve is still expected to cut interest rates next week to support job growth. However, the decline in the inflation rate has come to an end and the Federal Reserve's inflation goal of 2% per year is well below the November annual rate of 3.6%.   Yesterday, the Bank of Canada reduced its base interest by 50 basis points (one-half percent) to 3.25%. Just a few months

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 198,000 mts of old crop beans to unknown.    The USDA forecasts net farm income to reach $116 billion in 2024, 15% above the 10-year average, but lawmakers argue this masks the struggles of individual producers, particularly row crop farmers. There are increasing calls for federal aid. Ag bankers report a 40% increase in new operating loans and signs of growing debt distress, particularly in the central Plains and Midw

Highlights December basis contracts and long futures positions need to be liquidated or rolled by the close of business on Wednesday, 27 November. Given that December options expire this Friday and December delivery assignments will be issued on the evening of 27th, we recommend you roll basis contracts today or tomorrow to avoid the usual weakness associated with options expiration and first notice day. There are probably a lot of December corn basis contracts. When December

Highlights Wheat has been the upside leader the past three trading days. What are analysts saying is moving the wheat market higher?   The dry US Southern Plains (this area had a crop failure in 2023 and the market did not care) Forecast for freezing temps in Europe Too much rain in France Not enough rain in Southern Russia     Except for cold temperatures in Europe, all of the above is and has been old news for several months and more for the dry Southern Plains.   Yesterday

The numbers were: Negative Corn Negative Beans Neutral Wheat 18 Minutes after the report: May corn -3 May beans -5 July CBOT wheat -7 July KC wheat -7 Sept Spring wheat -6 Bottom line, in the past 24 hours, respected agencies reduced South American corn production by 8.299 mil. mts (326.7 mil. bushels).   Details:   CONAB (Brazil’s USDA) released its monthly update earlier this morning. It put Brazil's safrinha corn production at 85.6 mil mts., down 16.75 mil mts from last ye

At 10 AM Mountain Time today the USDA will release its Planting Intentions and Quarterly Grain Stocks Report. This is the second most important USDA report of every year. As with most USDA reports, the market expected bearish news and priced-in bearish news the past two days. It is unlikely the USDA will produce numbers more bearish than what is reflected in the futures prices.   Today is the last business day of the week, the month, and the quarter. Crazy things can happen o

Highlights United Airlines announced yesterday it launched a $100-million investment to support start-up companies developing and exploring the production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to accelerate the research, production, and technologies associated with SAF. For more details, go to: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/United-Airlines-Launches-Fund-To-Support-Sustainable-Fuel-Start-Ups.html The U.S. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which tracks the man

Highlights The soybean fields of Argentina and Rio Grande do Sul (RGDS), Brazil’s southern state, had temperatures 100 to 104°F (38 to 40°C) over the weekend with the next 7 days predicted to be above normal temperatures and below normal, but with some rainfall, the next few days. Up until late January, the market bought the baloney that any drought in Argentina and RGDS resulting in fewer beans would be more than offset by the above average rainfall in Northern Brazil. We

Highlights Hard red winter wheat led the wheat markets lower yesterday due to rain in the Southern Plains with more on rain tap. Beans and corn were lower due to rain in Argentina and the beans got an extra kick-in-the-head as the market continued to price-in the soon-to-be-made Brazilian crop. It was encouraging that March soft red winter wheat managed to recover enough to settle in the technical support area of $7.20, which supported the higher opening last evening. Eve

Highlights The Tech Guy was right and Roger was wrong. The USDA reports will be issued Thursday the 12th, not Friday the 12th. The dollar index is at a six-month low despite higher interest rates. The spot month CBOT wheat futures price was $10.71 (now $7.42), the US carryout was at 121 days’ supply (now 112 days), the world carryout was at 124 days’ supply (still 124). Wheat is the most sensitive ag commodity to the exchange rate of the dollar. Usually, if wheat was down,

About 2023 new crop Justin asked: "What’s your 2023 new crop recommendations? Will u be putting those out soon? Or do u wait until old crop recs have been filled? I’m fairly new to your program so just asking. Thanks." We will begin tracking new crop beans and corn outlook after the January 12th S&D with the final 2022 production estimates. We do not want anyone pricing new crops until they know their cost of inputs. Inflation of farm supplies and machinery in the 1970’s res

Tidbits Deliveries assigned for today by the CBOT are 654 soy oil to 28 December, 93 soybeans to 25 October, and zero bean meal to 9 December. To learn about how and why deliveries affect commodity prices, go to: www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/delivery-process-at-the-cbot Most of the reasons for lower CBOT prices yesterday were from outside the ag business. For the first time since February 1989, the number of US dollars in circulation decreased from the previous month. Th

We apologize for yesterday's email stating the price changes of the outside markets. Certainly some of you had a near heart attack when we reported the markets were trading when you thought they were not. You were correct, they were not trading. Crude oil started trading last evening and the ag commodities will open at 8:30 AM Central Time this morning. A lack of attention to detail is a vice, especially in our business as a service to you. Again, we apologize. Be at war with

Highlights Soybeans traded sharply higher yesterday morning, possibly for several reasons. China announced that they are lifting quarantine requirements for travelers coming into China on Jan 8th and the weekend was a bit drier in Argentina than was expected. China refers to home grown soybeans as #1 beans and imported soybeans as #2 beans. Yesterday, #1 beans were 2 to 3 cents higher, #2 beans were 59-60 cents higher, soymeal US$5-6 higher, soy oil 241 points higher, and pal