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Tidbits, Wheat, South America, PMI, SAF 4/24/24

Highlights


Wheat has been the upside leader the past three trading days. What are analysts saying is moving the wheat market higher?

 

  1. The dry US Southern Plains (this area had a crop failure in 2023 and the market did not care)

  2. Forecast for freezing temps in Europe

  3. Too much rain in France

  4. Not enough rain in Southern Russia  

 

Except for cold temperatures in Europe, all of the above is and has been old news for several months and more for the dry Southern Plains.

 

Yesterday, soft red winter wheat (CBOT) and hard red winter wheat (KCBOT) July contracts closed above their 100 day moving average price. That will attract another round of technical buyers.

 

July 2024 CBOT wheat is 17¾¢ over the May 2024 CBOT wheat. Full carry is 16½¢. Seldom do we ever see any carry get to 100%; this May to July wheat carry is 106%. That encourages commercials to hang on to their wheat and make that sure-fire profit storing the wheat.    

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