BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits World urea prices this past week were down ~4%, despite the Indian tender. Phosphate prices were mostly unchanged except Single Super Phosphate 20% (SSP) was a bit stronger. MOP prices were mostly steady to up ~3% at around $310 per mt CFR Brazil (delivered to the ports).   Brazil’s farmers are waiting to decide what fertilizer and seeds to purchase for the new crop growing season. Weather and prices are out of whack.   Our clients in the Southeast USA are saying cott

USDA will issue its monthly S&D Friday at 10 AM Mountain Time. It will be a non-event for US numbers. No production changes on US crops until May and domestic demand changes will most likely be unchanged as USDA historically waits until April to make demand changes after seeing the March Quarterly Inventory Report, which is released on the last business day of March.   World production is what to watch on Friday. With the USDA predicting more corn and beans from South America

Highlights March options go off the board at the close on Friday, February 23. First notice day for March grains is Thursday, February 29. Be out of longs by the close of business on Wednesday to avoid risk participating in the delivery process.   The U.S. government said on Thursday it approved a request from Midwestern governors allowing expanded sales of gasoline with higher blends of ethanol in their states, starting in 2025, one year later than originally proposed. The g

Highlights Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian soybeans production estimate to 145 mil mt (USDA 156), down 2 mil mts while leaving his Brazilian corn production estimate unchanged at 112 mil mts (USDA 124).   Dr. Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean production at 50 mil. mts (USDA 50) and corn production 54 mil. mts (USDA 55).   Agricomp Commodities downgraded Argentina’s soybean crop 1.88 mil mts to 49.5 mil mts due to recent excess heat and lack of rain. They stat

Tidbits A US Navy vessel is being fired upon almost every day now in the Red Sea area.   LanzaJet is a leading sustainable fuels technology company. As a Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) technology provider and producer of alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) technology, LanzaJet is accelerating the deployment of SAF. Lanzajet opened their Freedom Pines Fuels facility, the world’s first ethanol-based alcohol-to-jet sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) commercial production plant in Soperton, Georg

Highlights It appears the weekend weather in Brazil was as hot and dry or worse than predicted in the areas which have suffered the most the past two months. The forecast for the next two weeks appears to be a bit drier than it was Friday afternoon, but definitely more rain this week than the past two, but less than half of normal rainfall is the prediction. Later today, CONAB, Brazil’s USDA, will issue its Crop Progress Report. That may be scaring the markets a bit because C

Highlights Smithfield canceled its contracts with 26 US hog farms. Yesterday morning, USDA announced the sale of 372,000 mts of old crop soft red winter wheat and 136,000 mts of old soybeans to China Direct quote from www.oilprice.com : "Prices of Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate were down nearly 4% on Wednesday as an unexpected and significant increase in U.S. gasoline inventories added to concerns about lagging demand. Wednesday’s prices reflect the lowest levels

USDA is now accepting applications for farm loans online: https://www.fsa.usda.gov/news-room/news-releases/2023/usda-now-accepting-applications-for-farm-loans-online Highlights Corn in Brazil is worth more to feeders and ethanol plants than it is worth at the ports. That should mean the end of Brazil’s corn exports for this marketing year. Brazil's southern state of Parana had the wettest Oct-Nov in a quarter century, almost 21 inches of rain (534 mm, ~70% above avg). Yester

Highlights The EU Commissioner for Energy called an emergency meeting yesterday to discuss the possibility of a diesel supply shortage. One EU official said to the press, "Oil is important. Not enough diesel could lead to strikes. Is this a 1973 moment or not?" In late October 1973, Arab Oil Exporting countries refused to sell crude to countries who supported Israel in the Yom Kippur War that began on the 6th of October. The serious fighting was pretty much over within 10 da

Crop Feedbacks Bill in North Central Kentucky called Roger yesterday shortly after noon to let us know that ADM at Silver Grove, KY, across the Ohio River from Cincinnati, pushed (firmed) their soybean bid to $13.00 cash, which was 13¢ firmer than their posted offer. Dave in Northeast Illinois has cut 2200 acres of beans which averaged 55 bu, down 7 bushels from the past two year average. Thanks, Dave. Matt in Northwest/Central Ohio harvested 15 tons of cereal rye forage la

Highlights USDA October S&D will be issued at 10 AM Mountain Time today. Crude oil was weaker yesterday because Saudi Arabia said it will do its very best to keep world crude oil supplies flowing at a constant rate in the event one or more oil exporters decide to restrict or cannot export crude oil. Most eyes are on the possibility of Israel hitting Iran’s oil industry. Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 121,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China and 213,000

Highlights The fighting and atrocities happening in Israel and Gaza the past 48 hours are horrific. Israel will do a massive counter-strike to destroy, after decades of terrorism, the HAMAS organization and its supporters. That means Israel will probably go after Iran because it is a well-known fact Iran backs terrorism and terrorist organizations around the world. Iran produces about 4.5 million barrels of oil per day, so an attack on Iran will disrupt the world's flow of c

Tidbits Mark has a friend near Oto in Woodbury County, Iowa who has cut two fields of beans. The first was 15 bu/ac, the second field 35 bu/ac. The war continues to escalate. Fertilizer Between January and July 2023, the United States increased purchases of fertilizers from Russia to a record US$944 million according to RIA Novosti using US Statistical Service numbers. Russia became #2 fertilizer supplier to the United States. The value of Russian fertilizer imports to the U

Market Comment Brian near Alta in Buena Vista County, Northwest Iowa has chopped silage for six different farmers. Yields corrected to grain yield were all in the 150 to 185 range. All these farms yielded 210 to 240 bushels per acre the past two years. Brian has heard some silage appraisal yields southwest of him in the 35 to 100 bushel range. For those of you considering “re-owning on paper” cash grain previously sold (meaning buying futures or call options or writing puts)

Crop Feedback Justin farms in NE Kansas where almost every year the rains stop before the corn is mature while the day time highs average 90°F (32°C), which means half of the days the highs are in the upper 90’s. Justin predicts Iowa farmers will be shocked how much corn yield loss they have and will continue to lose with the dry soils and high temperatures for the next two weeks. Duane Lowry has 44 years in the grain trading/ag business industry. He is a marketing consul

The Story of Two Clients Chris and Doug were email subscription clients in May 2022. Both farm in Iowa and both became full service clients of Lance’s in early August of 2022. Chris is not going to renew his subscription. He is very upset with Wright on the Market because markets have gone down and all we do is keep saying markets will go higher. Doug renewed his subscription at once upon receiving the invoice this month. What is the difference? Same emails. Same full serv

Euro Currency The European Union (EU) was formed in 1993. It is an organization of European countries to oversee their economic and political integration. Presently, the EU has 27 member countries. Ukraine has applied for EU membership, which is not likely to be approved until the war is over and Ukraine gets government and business corruption under control. Eurozone refers to the 19 European Union countries that use the euro currency. The euro was launched in January 19

Highlights If the front three contract months of any commodity futures settles limit up or limit down, the next day’s daily trading limit is expanded. Yesterday, soybean oil was limit-down in more than three months. That means the bean complex will have expanded limits today: Soybeans: $1.60 a bushel Bean meal: $45 a ton Bean oil: 60¢ a pound Yesterday, the EPA issued its Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS) mandate for 2023 through 2025 compliance years. The ethanol blending targe

Highlights Yesterday’s mid-day weather models added light rains for the I-States, but confidence is low and there is little agreement from other models. There is agreement that temperatures will be above normal for the majority of crop areas from Canada to the Gulf Coast. The nation’s corn crop condition declined 6% last week to 55% good or excellent. That was 3% worse than the market expected, the lowest for this week since 1992 and the lowest for any week of any year s

Highlights U.S. President Joe Biden and House Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy will meet to discuss the debt ceiling today, after a "productive" phone call Sunday as the president headed home from Japan. Staff members for both sides did meet Sunday afternoon. Biden said he would be willing to cut spending with tax adjustments to reach a deal, but the latest offer from Republicans ceiling was "unacceptable." Day time high temperatures in many areas of Asia continue to be e