BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits The Director of Russian Foreign Intelligence Service says France is preparing to deploy 2,000 troops to Ukraine to help fight Russia. France’s President Macron, earlier this month, suggested NATO troops could support Kyiv forces. He has not ruled out the suggestion of French infantry intervention.   The Financial Times reports that the EU is set to place a 95 euro per mt tariff on grain imports from Russia and Belarus. EU imports of Russian grain hit a record 4 mil mt

Highlights NOPA posted a record February soybean crush by almost 20 mil bushels as new facilities come online and processors make up for lost ground due to January weather. The previous record for February was 166.28 mil bu. in 2020; February 2024 NOPA crush was 186.194 mil bu. (average estimate was 178). It is looking more and more like the USDA is 100 mil. bu. too low on their projected crush for this marketing year.   Agrinvest Brokers have reported Paraguay soybeans began

Tidbits Crop input purchases in the USA accelerated the past week as the dry weather has allowed field work. That is the main reason urea prices are up to $437 per ton versus $331 FOB NOLA in early January. This past week, DAP traded above $650 per ton FOB NOLA.   Analysts are saying the price of nitrogen fertilizers in the USA have gone inverted, meaning N bought now is higher priced than N bought 30 days from now and cheaper yet 60 days from now.      With increased prices

Highlights The weather outlook for Brazil’s main growing area looks to be turning drier and warmer next week. Watch the number of rain days in the 10 day forecast we report every day. The first two locations, Rondonópolis and Campo Grande, are in the central part of Brazil where most of the beans and corn are grown.     India is the world’s largest user of urea and it imports ~30% of its urea, which makes it the world’s largest importer of urea. What India pays for urea is th

Tidbits Mark has a friend near Oto in Woodbury County, Iowa who has cut two fields of beans. The first was 15 bu/ac, the second field 35 bu/ac. The war continues to escalate. Fertilizer Between January and July 2023, the United States increased purchases of fertilizers from Russia to a record US$944 million according to RIA Novosti using US Statistical Service numbers. Russia became #2 fertilizer supplier to the United States. The value of Russian fertilizer imports to the U

Highlights Russia attacked the two primary grain terminals of Ukraine for the fourth night in a row. The governor of Odessa said that two people were killed, 100 tons of dried peas and 20 tons of barley were destroyed. White House National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby told reporters that Russia is currently placing sea mines at the entrances to Ukrainian ports and targeting civilian ships carrying food to and from the region. There are rumors that truckers in Br

Nitrogen Fertilizer: Get it Priced Roger has been recommending not to forward price fertilizer, including nitrogen, for more than a year. Natural gas futures have not made a new low since June 1st when it made a double bottom (trend change indicator) and from June 25th, 3 years ago. Winter is getting closer and the war in Europe is escalating. The world's longest ammonia pipeline runs from Tolyatti Azot's plant in Russia to Odessa, Ukraine. The “Tolyatti – Odessa” pipeline u

Highlights If the front three contract months of any commodity futures settles limit up or limit down, the next day’s daily trading limit is expanded. Yesterday, soybean oil was limit-down in more than three months. That means the bean complex will have expanded limits today: Soybeans: $1.60 a bushel Bean meal: $45 a ton Bean oil: 60¢ a pound Yesterday, the EPA issued its Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS) mandate for 2023 through 2025 compliance years. The ethanol blending targe

Highlights Ukraine has reached an agreement with Poland on the resumption of the transit of Ukrainian food through Poland to the Baltic Sea beginning this evening. The U.S. Ag Attaché in Argentina lowered his estimate of the country’s soybean production to 23.9 million mts (USDA at 27). That would be the lowest in 24 years and a yield estimate of 23.5 bu/acre would be the poorest in almost 50 years. Russia is blocking Turkey’s inspection of ships loaded with Ukrainian grain

Highlights On Sunday, China’s National Development & Reform Commission reported to the annual meeting of parliament the broad goals and plans for the year ahead. Since China is the #2 economy in the world and seeks to become #1 economy and it is a major trade partner for most countries of the world, whatever China plans to do is important. China’s 2023 goal is for the economy to expand by ~5%, which is a half percent lower than last year's target. Actual growth in 2022 was

Highlights Agrinvest considers the 2022 global corn crop the biggest failure since 1996. Crops failed in parts of the US, Europe, Ukraine and Argentina. In all, the reduction exceeds 50 million tons from a year ago. USDA reports on its world S&D the corn produced in 2022 was 61 million mt (2.41 billion bushels, 5%) less than the corn produced in 2021. In Kansas, the largest wheat producing state in the United States, just 19% of its acres are rated good to excellent for the

Roger’s reference yesterday to Market Analyst Bill Crowder recommending his clients sell all corn and beans needs to be modified. Bill did send the email to his clients, but he was forwarding Bill Ryan’s email. Mr. Ryan’s email is: bill@crokerrhyne.com We apologize to Mr. Bill Crowder. Thanks, once again, John. Highlights Russia said they will not sign the Ukraine grain corridor deal unless Russia's agricultural and fertilizer producers are “taken into account.” With or witho

Highlights The soybean fields of Argentina and Rio Grande do Sul (RGDS), Brazil’s southern state, had temperatures 100 to 104°F (38 to 40°C) over the weekend with the next 7 days predicted to be above normal temperatures and below normal, but with some rainfall, the next few days. Up until late January, the market bought the baloney that any drought in Argentina and RGDS resulting in fewer beans would be more than offset by the above average rainfall in Northern Brazil. We

February CBOT options expire today. Highlights Tampa is probably the biggest port for US fertilizer coming and going. Ammonia prices were down 19% yesterday. February AA priced at $790 per mt, down from January’s $975. Natural Gas prices have declined over 50% in just the last 6 weeks, trading at the lowest price since May of 2021. It is possible that the restart of the Freeport LNG plant in Texas will cause US natural gas prices to increase as more pipeline natural gas will

Highlights Before December 5th, every controlled nuclear reaction that has ever occurred in this world produced a huge amount of energy from very little fuel by atomic fission, the destruction of an atom’s nucleus (uranium) to form smaller atoms. Since 1909, scientists have known nuclear fusion was possible. Fusion reactions fuse (join) two or more atoms together to form an atom with slightly lighter mass (weight in gravity) than the combined mass of the atoms that were fuse

Highlights China has bought 3+ million mt of Argentine beans since the “fire” sale began in Argentina two weeks ago. Argentine farmers are facing the driest conditions in 30 years as corn planting is set to begin. Some rain is possible over the weekend, but relief will be very temporary. Kory Melby, Brazilian agriculture consultant: "Rain predicted for next Thursday in Goiania. Rained in Rio Verde the day before yesterday. We have clouds in the sky now. Dry season is coming

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Highlights Tomorrow at 10 AM Mountain Time the USDA will issue its monthly S&D with revised world production numbers. Not much is expected other than soybean exports should be increased 25 to 30 million bushels. The USDA will wait until the Quarterly Stocks and Actual Planted Acres Reports on 30 June before making big changes on the July S&D. India may get the UN nod to export 600,00 mt of wheat. Supposedly a big relief to traders, shippers, importers, and logistics partners

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Highlights One year ago yesterday, 85% of North Dakota was in a severe drought (rated D3). This week, North Dakota is rated 4% very...