BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights The USDA’s May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released today at 11 AM Central Time. This will be the USDA’s first of 36 monthly S&D reports for the 2024 crops. The biggest question is: How much, if any, will USDA reduce South American crop production?   In Brazil, the state of Rio Grande do Sul experienced the worst flooding in the state's history. Rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul eased over the weekend, but more rain is expected

Highlights Reasons corn and beans were strong yesterday:   After months of friendly to somewhat bullish fundamental tidbits and firming basis, the growing season has arrived in North America as the growing season comes to an end in South America. On both continents, there are minor weather problems.   The Black Sea’s largest grain export port is Ukraine’s Odessa. Russia hit military objects hard there on Thursday morning with cruise missiles and reports say a lot of damage wi

Highlights The Commerce Department said yesterday morning the US economy’s gross domestic product increased at a 1.6% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2024, less than half the growth rate of the 4th quarter of 2023. The market expected a 2.4% growth rate.     The first quarter growth's pace was below what the Federal Reserve regards as non-inflationary growth rate of 1.8%.  It was the poorest GDP since the recession ended after the first two quarters of 2022. This GDP

Fuel Pricing Many of our clients use a lot of diesel fuel every month doing other things in addition to farming. We had recommended locking-in spring diesel prices last winter. One client priced 20,000 gallons, but used it all by the 20th of March and asked our opinion of what he should do about pricing more diesel. The decision was made to buy diesel hand-to-mouth until a better pricing opportunity presented itself.    Since ULSD has not been around long enough to establish

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported inflation at the wholesale level in March was up 0.2%; the market was expecting the Producer Price Index (PPI) to be up 0.3%. However, there is a credibility problem.   What would you say gasoline prices did in March? Yep, the American Automobile Association (Triple A) reported the price of gasoline in March increased 6.3%. However, the gasoline component of the government’s PPI reported the "seasonally adj

Tidbits Yesterday morning, USDA announced the sale of 152,404 mts of old crop soybeans to Mexico.   Datagro expects to see Brazil’s April soybean exports at 10.65 mil mts vs. 14.05 in April 2023 and corn exports 25,000 mts vs. 176,000 mts in April 2023. Does that indicate a short safrinha crop coming? Not much old crop corn left? Maybe both? Maybe none of the above.   Brent Crude oil’s surge above $91 a barrel on escalating geopolitical tensions, WTI is above $86. The Departm

CBOT Grain, CME Livestock and Dairy & NYMEX Energy Markets are closed on Friday March 29. Trade resumes normal evening session on Sunday April 1. Highlights USDA reported all cotton planted area at 10.7 million acres, up 4% from last year. Upland area is estimated at 10.47 million acres, up 4%. American Pima area is estimated at 203,000 acres, up 38% from 2023.   The USDA also released its Quarterly Pig Crop Report yesterday. The winter pig crop was up 2% from last year even

Tidbits March U.S. manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers index) was better than expected at 52.5, services PMI was below expectation at 51.7, values above 50 imply expansion. Existing home sales were better than expected at 4.38 million. Jobless claims at 210k were less than expected.   Iowa is facing drought for the 4th year in a row. Today's drought monitor showed at least abnormally dry conditions with 23% for corn and 19% for beans. Seasonal outlooks, released by NOAA to

Highlights Presidential elections have begun in Russia, voting will last 3 days. There are 4 candidates running in the election. According to the latest data, the level of support for Putin before the election was 82%. Tidbits Allendale’s farmer survey has US plantings of: Corn at 93.5 mil acres, down 1.2% from 2023 (USDA 91.0) Soybeans at 85.8 mil acres, up 2.7% (USDA 87.5) Wheat at 47.6 mil acres, down 3.9% (USDA 47.0)   The Producer Price Index (PPI), the measure of inflat

Highlights Yesterday concluded the averaging of the Revenue Assurance. So far, the averages are $4.66 for corn, $11.56 for beans and $6.84 for HRS wheat.   Wildfires raging in the Texas Panhandle have destroyed grain in storage bins and likely killed tens of thousands of livestock, state Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller said in an interview on Thursday. It is the largest in Texas history and burning grazing lands covered with years of grass are helping to fuel the fire. Ti

Highlights March 2023 corn made a new contract low each of the last seven trading days. That did not happen even when Jimmy Carter announced (on 4 Jan 1980) a Grain Embargo on our top corn buyer, the Soviet Union. The 9-day relative strength index is 12.9. Anything under 30 is oversold and 20% is considered grossly oversold. People will be talking about the bear corn market action in February 2024 fifty years from now. We expect they will also be talking about the longest and

The CBOT will reopen Monday evening instead of Sunday evening  in observance of Presidents’ Day. Tidbits NOPA soybean crush in January 2024 was 185.78 mil bu of soybeans, a record large crush for any January and 3.8% more than a year ago. The market expected 189.928 mil bu.   Soy oil stocks at the end of January were 1.507 bil lbs, the largest end-month supply in six months and above market expectations of 1.409 bil lbs. However, and more importantly, the bean oil inventory w

S&D Highlights USDA made slight reductions to the demand side for 2023-24 marketing year for corn, beans and wheat, which increased soybeans carryover by 4 days use to 28 days and wheat by 3 days use to 129 days. CONAB reduced their total corn crop by 3.9 million mts to 113.7 million, the second safrinha crop was estimated 3.1 million lower to 88.1 million. Soybeans were updated to 149.4 million metric tons, 5.87 million lower from last month.

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA reported the sale of 206,834 mts of old crop soybeans to Mexico. December bean crush was reported at 204 mil bu. vs 206.5 mil expected, up 9.1% from a year ago. Corn used for ethanol was 481.7 mil bu. vs 474.4 mil expected, up 13.1% from prior year. Brazil's soybeans estimates were updated lower: Datagro: 148.55 mmt (was 152.88 mmt) Agresource: 145.4 mmt (was 150.7 mmt) StoneX: 150.35 mmt (was 152.8 mmt) January agency estimates, as a re

Highlights Soybeans suffered a serious round of profit-taking yesterday triggered by Brazil’s soybean February basis weakening by as much as 80¢ in some areas where harvest is going well. The market ignored the midday 10-14 day weather forecast turning drier for Argentina.   According to Bolsa de Cereales (the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange), Argentina’s bean crop good to excellent rating dropped 11% to 44% with 8% of the crop poor, up 6% from the prior week. That is a big chang

Tidbits Agroconsult sees Brazil’s bean crop at 153.8 mil mts, down from 158.8 in December (USDA 157).   Panama Canal officials announced they will reduce the daily number of vessels allowed to transit the 50 mile long canal to 24, down from the average of 36 this time last year.   Each vessel requires an average of 50 million gallons of fresh water from Gatun Lake on the high ground to feed locks on both sides of the Continental Divide.   The Canal opened in 1914 with two set

At 10 AM Mountain Time today, the USDA will release its final 2023 Crop Production, Quarterly Grain Inventory as of December 1st, Actual Planted Winter Wheat Acreage Reports and the USA and World S&D.   The market expects slight reductions in 2023 US corn and bean crops, larger corn inventory and a smaller bean inventory than a year ago, with South American production down slightly from last month, and less US winter wheat acres than a year ago. Our mailing yesterday had the

CHS summarized some of the world’s problems:  "There is an abundance of drama around the globe to keep every market stressed and off balance. Escalated fighting in the Middle East, Russia fires more missiles at Ukraine, Ukraine shoots down Russian drones, North Korea fires off artillery rounds near a South Korean border and South Korea pushes back, China’s flying spy balloons over Taiwan…"     What could go wrong to cause a hitch in the world food change? After all, Brazil’s

Highlights Reuters News reported that Russia unleashed its biggest air attack of the war on Ukraine on Friday, cities and infrastructure across the country were targeted. Ukraine claims civilian casualties, while Russia says only military facilities were attacked.   It was Russia’s largest aerial attack of the war on Ukraine and wheat closed lower yesterday. What happened to the good ol’ days when market action made some sense occasionally? Did the world forget the Black Sea

Highlights Mexico is the leading export destination for US corn, receiving from 21% to 32% of US corn exported annually in recent years. US corn export sales to Mexico are at a near record pace.   There are six railroad border crossings from the USA to Mexico. Two of them have been closed since 8 AM Monday as the Biden Administration pulled border personnel working the crossings to assist with the illegals crossing in the USA. However, others say the two border crossing point