BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights USDA changes for South America: Argentina’s bean crop unchanged at 50 million mts. Brazil’s bean crop was reduced by 1 million mts to 154, about 6 to 7 million higher than most estimates. Reduced Argentina’s corn crop 2 million mts to 53, which is 6 to 10 million mts above most estimates. Reduced Brazil’s corn crop by 2 million mts to 122 million mts, 9 million mts above CONAB, which will give their May S&D numbers on Monday. Increased Ukraine’s 2023 corn crop by 1

Highlights The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced yesterday a tender to purchase 3.3 million barrels of crude oil for October delivery to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at a price no higher than $79 per barrel. To date, the DOE has bought a total of 32.3 million barrels of oil at an average price of $76.98.   World crude oil demand is expected to grow less this year than earlier estimates and output should grow faster than previously thought, the U.S.

Fuel Pricing Many of our clients use a lot of diesel fuel every month doing other things in addition to farming. We had recommended locking-in spring diesel prices last winter. One client priced 20,000 gallons, but used it all by the 20th of March and asked our opinion of what he should do about pricing more diesel. The decision was made to buy diesel hand-to-mouth until a better pricing opportunity presented itself.    Since ULSD has not been around long enough to establish

CBOT Grain, CME Livestock and Dairy & NYMEX Energy Markets are closed on Friday March 29. Trade resumes normal evening session on Sunday April 1. Highlights USDA reported all cotton planted area at 10.7 million acres, up 4% from last year. Upland area is estimated at 10.47 million acres, up 4%. American Pima area is estimated at 203,000 acres, up 38% from 2023.   The USDA also released its Quarterly Pig Crop Report yesterday. The winter pig crop was up 2% from last year even

Highlights Sunday evening, Andrey Sizov reported a top Russian grain exporter claims that all its shipments have been halted by the Russian government.   Asian shares were slightly higher this morning as investors hope US inflation will not derail the outlook for lower interest rates.    Thursday is the day the USDA will release its second most important data of the year. It is the Quarterly Grain Stocks (inventory) as of March 1st and its Planting Intentions Report.   Pro Fa

Below is the projected S&D (with yields) for Grain & Beans. Here is the link to the full report for oilseeds and grains:...

Highlights Yesterday morning, CHS’s comments started with this paragraph: "The USDA released their long-term projections yesterday. The market seems to be reacting to the yield projections for all three of our major commodities."   Our first thought was 183.5 bushels of corn per acre yield in 2024 is not reasonable as CHS reported it, even though the market expects negative numbers from USDA this morning. Apparently, CHS used last year's report for their commentary by mistake

Highlights CPI for January was up 0.3% instead of the expected 0.2%, which most likely added a month or two to the wait time for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The past 12 months CPI was 3.1% versus the expected 2.9%.     Dr Cordonnier lowered his estimate for Brazil’s corn production by 3 mil mts to 112 mil (USDA 124) and he reduced Argentina’s corn production by 2 mil mts to 54 mil. mts (USDA 55).   Dr Cordonnier lowered Brazil’s and Argentina’s soybean prod

Highlights Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated Sunday night on 60 Minutes that interest rates will stay higher longer than expected and a March cut is "not likely."   Argentina will be hot and dry for a couple more days. Their crops have been hard hit by the weather the past three weeks, but rain is on the way later this week.   Meanwhile, excessive rain in the main growing areas of Brazil have been great for late planted beans, but it is making it very difficult to ha

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA reported the sale of 206,834 mts of old crop soybeans to Mexico. December bean crush was reported at 204 mil bu. vs 206.5 mil expected, up 9.1% from a year ago. Corn used for ethanol was 481.7 mil bu. vs 474.4 mil expected, up 13.1% from prior year. Brazil's soybeans estimates were updated lower: Datagro: 148.55 mmt (was 152.88 mmt) Agresource: 145.4 mmt (was 150.7 mmt) StoneX: 150.35 mmt (was 152.8 mmt) January agency estimates, as a re

Tidbits AGRural lowered Brazil soybean production estimate by 9 million to 150.1 mil mts.   Dr. Michael Cordonnier: Lowered Brazil soybean estimate by 2 mil to 149 mil mts (USDA at 157). Lowered Brazil corn estimate by 2 mil to 115 mil mts (USDA at 127). Increased Argentine soybean estimate by 2 mil to 52 million mts. Increased Argentine corn estimate by 3 mil to 56 million mts.   Farmers’ protests continue in Germany blocking highways and accumulating in Berlin. Demand is to

At 10 AM Mountain Time today, the USDA will release its final 2023 Crop Production, Quarterly Grain Inventory as of December 1st, Actual Planted Winter Wheat Acreage Reports and the USA and World S&D.   The market expects slight reductions in 2023 US corn and bean crops, larger corn inventory and a smaller bean inventory than a year ago, with South American production down slightly from last month, and less US winter wheat acres than a year ago. Our mailing yesterday had the

Highlights The weather outlook for Brazil’s main growing area looks to be turning drier and warmer next week. Watch the number of rain days in the 10 day forecast we report every day. The first two locations, Rondonópolis and Campo Grande, are in the central part of Brazil where most of the beans and corn are grown.     India is the world’s largest user of urea and it imports ~30% of its urea, which makes it the world’s largest importer of urea. What India pays for urea is th

Tidbits Dr. Michael Cordonnier reduced his Brazilian soybean production by 2 mil mts to 151 million.   StoneX cut its estimate for Brazil's soybean crop to 152.8 mil mts, down from its previous estimate of 161.9 mil. mts and corn was reduced 1.4 mil. mts to 124.6 mil mts.   Agronomic firm, Pine Agronegócios, reported yesterday: "Harvest of soja in Campo Verde/Mato Grosso an area of 300 ha (741 acres) with a yield of ~20 sacs/ha. (17.81 bu per acre). The region is one of the m

Highlights The Producer Price Index (PPI) is the measure of inflation at the wholesale level and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the rate of inflation at the retail level. This morning, China reported both indexes. The PPI annual rate was expected to be -2.7% (deflation). The actual PPI was a -2.6% (less deflation than expected, which is good) The annual CPI rate was expected to be -0.1%. The actual CPI was -0.2% (not terrible, but worse than expected). From MetSul Meteo

Highlights USDA issues an Export Inspections Report the first business day of every week which reports the amounts of commodities loaded on a ship, train, or truck, ready to leave the USA. The soybean export inspections were the market shocker yesterday morning when reported to be 1.643 million mts, double the high end of the range of expectations. That was later corrected to 1.036 million mts. While the reduction was disappointing, there were still way more beans exported t

Highlights Today is the last business day of the week, the month and the quarter and there is only one business day (Monday) until the middle of next week. Throw-in the changing weather forecasts and the war in Eastern Europe, you better get a seat belt for your office chair. December corn settled yesterday below the gap made the first week of June on the daily chart. Technically, bad news if one wants corn to go higher. However, the settlement was 38¢ above the May low, so a

Highlights Farm Futures 2023 acreage survey released Friday favors beans over corn: Corn: 87.677 million (88.579 last year, USDA Outlook: 91.0) Soybean: 89.620 (87.45 last year, USDA Outlook: 87.5) All wheat: 45.744 (45.738 last year, USDA Outlook 49.5) Winter wheat: 34.417 (33.271 last year) Spring wheat: 10.152 (10.835 last year) Durum wheat: 1.175 million (1.632 last year) Cotton NA (13.76 last year) Sorghum NA (6.3 last year) Barley NA (2.945 last year) Oa