BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights March CBOT options expire today which usually means lower prices. The expected hot weather in Argentina this weekend sent soybeans higher yesterday, but not so much the corn. We think the faint rumors from the New York Times of a Trump trade deal with China boosted soybeans more than weather. Due to high prices, India cancelled the purchase of 70,000 mts of Malaysian palm oil which had been scheduled for delivery March through June. Sunflower oil futures rose above

Highlights After the ag futures close today, they will not reopen until Monday evening at normal times. Crude oil will be trading normal hours Sunday night and Monday. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its estimate of Argentine corn production by 2 million mts to 46 million mts (USDA 50) and lowered soybean production by 5 million to 47.5 million mts (USDA 49). CONAB (Brazil’s USDA) reduced their Brazilian soybean production estimate by a mere 310,000 mts to 166 million mts

Highlights The weather pattern Mato Grosso and Goias through Wednesday is expected to allow a sharp advance in the harvest pace. Weather forecasts indicate alternating rain and sun, with higher temperatures. Elevators in Mato Grosso reported a three to fourfold increase in soybean deliveries the past two days. Crushers report very low protein content (below 33%), but high oil content.   In Brazil’s leading corn and bean producing state, Mato Grosso (MT), the prices in July fo

Ag market futures will resume trading at normal time this evening. Crude oil began trading as its usual time last evening, namely 5 PM Central, and will trade today until its normal close at 4 PM Central.   Wayne Bacon is traveling, so there will be no world FOB grain price and ocean freight rate report this week. Tidbits Much of Argentina’s crop areas received between three and four tenths (~10 mm) on Saturday.     Sunday morning weather update for crop areas of Argentina: "

Highlights Agricultural markets will close at 12:15 PM CST tomorrow, January 9th in a National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter. The grain markets will reopen at their regular times Thursday evening and trade normal hours on Friday, January 10th, the day of the USDA S&D at 10 AM Mountain Time. The weather forecast for South America has not improved in the past 24 hours. If anything it is hotter and drier in Rio Grande do Sul and Argentina and rain is in the f

Tidbits If you have beans on a January basis contract, get them rolled today to March. This market may go inverted (January premium to...

Tidbits A 25% tariff on imported Canadian crude oil  would have a major impact on North American energy markets, driving up prices for refiners in the U.S. Midwest and potentially hitting differentials for Canadian oil.   The U.S. imported about 4.0 million barrels of Canadian crude and petroleum products per day in 2024.   Refiners in the Midwest rely heavily on Canadian crude. Those facilities are configured to run heavier oil grades which are preferred for diesel fuel. Abo

Highlights December CBOT options expire today.   As we wrote earlier, President Biden authorized Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory with long-range missiles, after that Ukraine launched two missile strikes on Russian regions. Experts say those missiles have to be operated by NATO specialists. Yesterday, Russia launched a strike with the “Oreshnik” Hypersonic Intercontinental Ballistic Missile  at a military plant in Ukraine. It is said hypersonic missiles have a sp

Highlights Leaders of foreign countries who sell products to the U.S. markets, are scurrying to prepare to deal with President Trump’s...

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 124,000 mts of corn to unknown.   Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his South American corn and soybean crop estimates unchanged from last month (in million mts):   Corn: Brazil 125 (USDA 127), Argentina 48 (USDA 51)  Soybeans: Brazil 165 (USDA 169), Argentina 57 (USDA 51)   Egypt purchased 290,000 mts of wheat this week: 120,000 mts Romania 120,000 mts Ukraine 50,000 mts Bulgaria   Chinese manufacturing purchasing manage

Highlights Yesterday’s U.S. commodity market was down on harvest pressure and China sent a record 125 military aircraft to encircle Taiwan “as a resolute punishment for Taiwan’s president's continuous fabrication of ‘Taiwan independence’ nonsense.”     The commodity markets fear that politicians may pull a Jimmy Carter stunt and “punish” China like Carter punished the Soviet Union for its Christmas Eve 1979 invasion of Afghanistan. On 4 January 1980, Carter banned U.S. grain

Highlights The USDA will release at 11 AM Central Time today its monthly S&D. Note below every average estimate is less than the September USDA S&D. ADM’s summary: On the economy front, we got mixed news yesterday morning. Inflation was higher than expected (a reason for higher interest rates) and unemployment claims were higher than expected (for lower interest rates).   The Labor Department reported the Consumer Price Index (CPI, inflation at the retail level) rose 2.4% for

Highlights The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report highlights: U.S. ethanol production was up; market expected it to be down U.S. ethanol stocks were way down; market expected moderate decline to up a little U.S. gasoline demand was 6.4% stronger than the four-week average   Karen Braun shared a summary: USA exported a record volume of ethanol over the last year (Sep 2023-Aug 2024), some 30% above the recent five-year average. USA's 2024 imports of anim

Highlights The river gauge at Memphis will restrict barge drafts by October 13th if no rain comes this week. Weather Monday night poured down rain in Western Pennsylvania.   Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 166,000 mts of old crop (2024) soybeans to China.     Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his U.S. corn and soybean numbers unchanged. He has corn at 15.09 billion bushels with a yield forecast of 182.5 bushels (USDA 15.186 & 183.6) and his soybean numbers at 4.44

Highlights Today at 1 PM Central the Federal Reserve will announce its decision about an interest rate cut. The market has priced-in a 35% probability of a 25 basis point cut (¼%) and 65% probability of a 50 basis point (½%) cut. We think the market is overly optimistic based on the facts of inflation versus job creation. If the Fed wants to play politics, they will go with a half percent cut or maybe a 75 basis point cut, which would be bullish commodities and the equity mar

Tidbits Soft red winter wheat made a key reversal yesterday, which occurs when the price of a stock or commodity makes a new low and closes higher than the previous day’s high. It can also be made on weekly charts and a key reversal on a weekly chart is considered a more reliable trend change indicator.   A key reversal was a respected technical indicator of trend change until 2023 and 2024. Corn, wheat, and beans have had multiple key reversals the past 14 months. But someda

Highlights Canada’s government has ordered Canada’s railways and workers’ union to get back to work on Friday. Union members went to work yesterday, but it will take several days to get back up and running smoothly.   The BNSF has halted grain shuttle trains to Mexico for 3 days due to ongoing congestion and service interruptions that have resulted in equipment being held in Mexico, according to BNSF and USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service. This could end up being a huge hi

Highlights NOPA members crushed 182.881 million bushels of soybean in July, which was 442,400 bushels more than the market expected. That was 5.5% more than last year’s record large July crush. Better yet, oil stocks were 1.499 billion pounds, which was 109 million fewer pounds than the market expected.   Soybean oil and meal basis in Brazil is sharply higher this week. The resulting improving crush margins for the beans makes Brazil’s small bean supplies for export smaller y

Highlights Farmers and agronomists are sounding the alarm that Tar Spot is becoming quite a problem once again in the far Eastern Corn Belt. We recommend you check your fields as many folks have been very surprised by the intensity of the Tar Spot disease in their corn fields treated a month ago.   The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its USA forecast for crude oil demand, although its price outlook for this year and next has been revised down.   The EIA no

Highlights The weekly ethanol report numbers were supportive for corn prices, but the market ignored it. Ethanol production was the second highest ever for this reporting week and the ethanol inventory was down 155,000 barrels from last week.   S&P Global left their Brazilian corn production unchanged at 123 mil. mts (USDA 122) and their soybean number also unchanged at 152 mil. mts (USDA 154).   SovEcon (Andrey Sizov) cut his Russian wheat crop estimate from 82.1 mil. mts ju