BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Yesterday’s U.S. commodity market was down on harvest pressure and China sent a record 125 military aircraft to encircle Taiwan “as a resolute punishment for Taiwan’s president's continuous fabrication of ‘Taiwan independence’ nonsense.”     The commodity markets fear that politicians may pull a Jimmy Carter stunt and “punish” China like Carter punished the Soviet Union for its Christmas Eve 1979 invasion of Afghanistan. On 4 January 1980, Carter banned U.S. grain

Highlights The USDA will release at 11 AM Central Time today its monthly S&D. Note below every average estimate is less than the September USDA S&D. ADM’s summary: On the economy front, we got mixed news yesterday morning. Inflation was higher than expected (a reason for higher interest rates) and unemployment claims were higher than expected (for lower interest rates).   The Labor Department reported the Consumer Price Index (CPI, inflation at the retail level) rose 2.4% for

Highlights The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report highlights: U.S. ethanol production was up; market expected it to be down U.S. ethanol stocks were way down; market expected moderate decline to up a little U.S. gasoline demand was 6.4% stronger than the four-week average   Karen Braun shared a summary: USA exported a record volume of ethanol over the last year (Sep 2023-Aug 2024), some 30% above the recent five-year average. USA's 2024 imports of anim

Highlights The river gauge at Memphis will restrict barge drafts by October 13th if no rain comes this week. Weather Monday night poured down rain in Western Pennsylvania.   Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 166,000 mts of old crop (2024) soybeans to China.     Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his U.S. corn and soybean numbers unchanged. He has corn at 15.09 billion bushels with a yield forecast of 182.5 bushels (USDA 15.186 & 183.6) and his soybean numbers at 4.44

Highlights Today at 1 PM Central the Federal Reserve will announce its decision about an interest rate cut. The market has priced-in a 35% probability of a 25 basis point cut (¼%) and 65% probability of a 50 basis point (½%) cut. We think the market is overly optimistic based on the facts of inflation versus job creation. If the Fed wants to play politics, they will go with a half percent cut or maybe a 75 basis point cut, which would be bullish commodities and the equity mar

Tidbits Soft red winter wheat made a key reversal yesterday, which occurs when the price of a stock or commodity makes a new low and closes higher than the previous day’s high. It can also be made on weekly charts and a key reversal on a weekly chart is considered a more reliable trend change indicator.   A key reversal was a respected technical indicator of trend change until 2023 and 2024. Corn, wheat, and beans have had multiple key reversals the past 14 months. But someda

Highlights Canada’s government has ordered Canada’s railways and workers’ union to get back to work on Friday. Union members went to work yesterday, but it will take several days to get back up and running smoothly.   The BNSF has halted grain shuttle trains to Mexico for 3 days due to ongoing congestion and service interruptions that have resulted in equipment being held in Mexico, according to BNSF and USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service. This could end up being a huge hi

Highlights NOPA members crushed 182.881 million bushels of soybean in July, which was 442,400 bushels more than the market expected. That was 5.5% more than last year’s record large July crush. Better yet, oil stocks were 1.499 billion pounds, which was 109 million fewer pounds than the market expected.   Soybean oil and meal basis in Brazil is sharply higher this week. The resulting improving crush margins for the beans makes Brazil’s small bean supplies for export smaller y

Highlights Farmers and agronomists are sounding the alarm that Tar Spot is becoming quite a problem once again in the far Eastern Corn Belt. We recommend you check your fields as many folks have been very surprised by the intensity of the Tar Spot disease in their corn fields treated a month ago.   The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its USA forecast for crude oil demand, although its price outlook for this year and next has been revised down.   The EIA no

Highlights The weekly ethanol report numbers were supportive for corn prices, but the market ignored it. Ethanol production was the second highest ever for this reporting week and the ethanol inventory was down 155,000 barrels from last week.   S&P Global left their Brazilian corn production unchanged at 123 mil. mts (USDA 122) and their soybean number also unchanged at 152 mil. mts (USDA 154).   SovEcon (Andrey Sizov) cut his Russian wheat crop estimate from 82.1 mil. mts ju

Highlights USDA changes for South America: Argentina’s bean crop unchanged at 50 million mts. Brazil’s bean crop was reduced by 1 million mts to 154, about 6 to 7 million higher than most estimates. Reduced Argentina’s corn crop 2 million mts to 53, which is 6 to 10 million mts above most estimates. Reduced Brazil’s corn crop by 2 million mts to 122 million mts, 9 million mts above CONAB, which will give their May S&D numbers on Monday. Increased Ukraine’s 2023 corn crop by 1

Highlights The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced yesterday a tender to purchase 3.3 million barrels of crude oil for October delivery to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at a price no higher than $79 per barrel. To date, the DOE has bought a total of 32.3 million barrels of oil at an average price of $76.98.   World crude oil demand is expected to grow less this year than earlier estimates and output should grow faster than previously thought, the U.S.

Fuel Pricing Many of our clients use a lot of diesel fuel every month doing other things in addition to farming. We had recommended locking-in spring diesel prices last winter. One client priced 20,000 gallons, but used it all by the 20th of March and asked our opinion of what he should do about pricing more diesel. The decision was made to buy diesel hand-to-mouth until a better pricing opportunity presented itself.    Since ULSD has not been around long enough to establish

CBOT Grain, CME Livestock and Dairy & NYMEX Energy Markets are closed on Friday March 29. Trade resumes normal evening session on Sunday April 1. Highlights USDA reported all cotton planted area at 10.7 million acres, up 4% from last year. Upland area is estimated at 10.47 million acres, up 4%. American Pima area is estimated at 203,000 acres, up 38% from 2023.   The USDA also released its Quarterly Pig Crop Report yesterday. The winter pig crop was up 2% from last year even

Highlights Sunday evening, Andrey Sizov reported a top Russian grain exporter claims that all its shipments have been halted by the Russian government.   Asian shares were slightly higher this morning as investors hope US inflation will not derail the outlook for lower interest rates.    Thursday is the day the USDA will release its second most important data of the year. It is the Quarterly Grain Stocks (inventory) as of March 1st and its Planting Intentions Report.   Pro Fa

Below is the projected S&D (with yields) for Grain & Beans. Here is the link to the full report for oilseeds and grains:...

Highlights Yesterday morning, CHS’s comments started with this paragraph: "The USDA released their long-term projections yesterday. The market seems to be reacting to the yield projections for all three of our major commodities."   Our first thought was 183.5 bushels of corn per acre yield in 2024 is not reasonable as CHS reported it, even though the market expects negative numbers from USDA this morning. Apparently, CHS used last year's report for their commentary by mistake

Highlights CPI for January was up 0.3% instead of the expected 0.2%, which most likely added a month or two to the wait time for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The past 12 months CPI was 3.1% versus the expected 2.9%.     Dr Cordonnier lowered his estimate for Brazil’s corn production by 3 mil mts to 112 mil (USDA 124) and he reduced Argentina’s corn production by 2 mil mts to 54 mil. mts (USDA 55).   Dr Cordonnier lowered Brazil’s and Argentina’s soybean prod

Highlights Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated Sunday night on 60 Minutes that interest rates will stay higher longer than expected and a March cut is "not likely."   Argentina will be hot and dry for a couple more days. Their crops have been hard hit by the weather the past three weeks, but rain is on the way later this week.   Meanwhile, excessive rain in the main growing areas of Brazil have been great for late planted beans, but it is making it very difficult to ha

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA reported the sale of 206,834 mts of old crop soybeans to Mexico. December bean crush was reported at 204 mil bu. vs 206.5 mil expected, up 9.1% from a year ago. Corn used for ethanol was 481.7 mil bu. vs 474.4 mil expected, up 13.1% from prior year. Brazil's soybeans estimates were updated lower: Datagro: 148.55 mmt (was 152.88 mmt) Agresource: 145.4 mmt (was 150.7 mmt) StoneX: 150.35 mmt (was 152.8 mmt) January agency estimates, as a re