BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights On 2 April, Trump applied an additional 34% reciprocal tariffs on China  added to the existing 20% duties already applied to Chinese imports. Together, they bring the total tariff rate to 54%, affecting nearly $600 billion in annual trade to combat currency manipulation, dumping (selling below the cost of production) of industrial products, and a host of other lesser offenses. China responded over the weekend with a series of countermeasures, including tighter expo

Highlights Often we have written and said: “The expectation of an event will move the market more than confirmation of that event.”  Yesterday’s market action demonstrated that axiom. For two months, the endless talk has been about many more corn acres and fewer bean acres. That is exactly what the USDA reported. Corn acres were up 5% from 2024, while soybean area was 4% lower. Corn closed higher in most contracts yesterday and beans were down 8 to 9¢.

Highlights Pro Farmer released their U.S. planting projections  on Friday. They expect 3.5% more corn acres at 93.75 million acres and a 2.4% decrease in soybean acres to 85 million. Spring wheat acres are expected to be down while durum wheat may see a slight increase in plantings. They see total wheat at 45.5 million acres, down 1.5% from last year. Some other surveys showed estimates about 95.4 million of corn and 82.75 million of soybeans. The CHS outlook for U.S. spring

Tidbits President Trump and President Putin are scheduled to have a phone conversation this morning regarding the negotiations of a ceasefire and possibly the end to the Ukraine/Russia  war. The discussion will be centered on the allocation of assets, primarily of land and power plants that must be settled before a lasting peace can be maintained. Mark Carney was sworn in as the first new Canadian prime minister  in nine years on Friday. He visited the UK and France as his fi

Highlights At 11 AM Central Time, the USDA will release its March S&D. It will be neutral for the market at the worst. Despite all the tariff rhetoric yesterday, the big news was the corn weekly export inspections. CHS summed it up this way:  “ Corn inspections were outstanding with the total setting a marketing year high. Inspections have been above one million tons for nine consecutive weeks. This is also the ninth week in a row where corn inspections have been above both l

Highlights President Trump will give his State of the Union Address this evening at 8 PM Central Time. He says he will make a major announcement. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would impose tariffs on "external" agricultural products starting April 2, urging American farmers to increase domestic production. In a Monday social media post, he stated, “Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural products to be sold INSIDE of the United States.” However, he di

Tidbits Corn was hit hard yesterday by the expected increase in 2025 acres, improved weather in South America, and first notice day for deliveries on March futures, all of which is old news. Improved weather for soybean harvest means more safrinha corn will get planted and Argentina’s dry areas will get a drink, but that does not change the fact the world is short of corn. After Friday’s price decline, we were surprised to see corn so weak yesterday. Soybeans traded to the bo

Highlights Yesterday, Saudi Arabia hosted the first talks between Russia and the U.S. since the start of the war in Ukraine . President Donald Trump commented on their outcome, here are the main points: Trump called the meeting between the U.S. and Russian delegations ‘very good’ and admitted that after it he became ‘much more confident’ in reaching a deal on a settlement in Ukraine; Trump said he was not against sending European troops to Ukraine, but there would be no Ameri

Tidbits Agriculture futures markets will not trade until tomorrow evening at normal times. Crude oil will trade normal hours this evening...

Highlights At 11 AM Central time this morning, the USDA will release its monthly S&D. We sent the estimates to you as part of Saturday’s mailing. We expect the numbers to be friendly corn, negative for soybeans, neutral to friendly wheat. Brazil’s situation paraphrased from AgrInvest last evening: “Soybean basis for the export market is rising, especially for March shipments. Sales are increasing rapidly, but soybean stocks at ports are still low. Soybean sales by farmers thi

Highlights Colombia’s President Petro late Sunday agreed to all of President Trump’s terms on the deportation of migrants. Colombia is a top 5 buyer of U.S. corn and soybean meal while the U.S. is Colombia’s number one trading partner and buys nearly one-third of Colombia’s total exports. Colombia sends crude oil, gold, bananas, fresh-cut flowers, and more than one-quarter of US coffee imports come from Colombia. U.S. tech stocks  were sharply lower yesterday, after Chinese A

Highlights S&P Global published their estimates for US spring planting intentions for corn and beans. We added the past three years: Corn: 93.5 million acres, 90.6(2024), 94.6(2023), 88.2(2022) Beans: 83.3 million acres, 87.1(2024), 83.6(2023), 87.5(2022)   Trump said no tariffs will be imposed until 1 February and then only on Canada and Mexico.   The dollar index has lost 2 full points the past two days because tariffs were postponed or cancelled.

Highlights We really do not have a logical explanation why soybeans futures are up 68¢ the past 3 trading days and up $1.06 the past 15 trading days.     South America most likely will harvest the largest crop they have ever harvested. The world carryover is a 116 day supply; it is truly a burden for $10.50 futures. Last year’s world carryover was a 107 day supply and you well remember what a painful experience $9.52 soybean futures were last August. The dollar index was 100.

Tidbits Yesterday, March corn  traded over $4.60 for the first time since late June. South American weather is not improving, but make no mistake, the South American soybean crop  will be overwhelmingly large. The USDA is likely to increase its Brazilian bean production estimate on Friday. It is also reasonable the USDA will reduce corn production in the U.S. and world wide.  Yesterday’s Commitment of Traders Report ( COT ) showed managed money holds the largest net long corn

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 23,000 mts of old soybean oil to India. China and India usually buy palm oil from Indonesia or Malaysia, but those two countries are going big on biodiesel and have greatly restricted palm oil exports.   Egypt's public procurement agency, Mostakbal Misr, has secured direct contracts for 1.267 million mts of primarily Russian wheat, sufficient to meet the country's needs until June 2025. In the first half of the 2024/25

Highlights The Equatorial Pacific Surface Water temperature has dropped a half °C the past two reporting weeks and is now 1° below normal. That is why it is turning dry in Argentina and Southern Brazil and so very wet in Northern Brazil where 85% of their beans are grown. That much rain is great for the beans in that sandy soil until they are mature. As you know, soybeans cannot be harvested when the stems are wet or even damp. Harvest will be delayed and the quality of the b

Tidbits Yesterday’s NOPA crush  for November was down 3% from October and about 3.5 million bushels less than expected, but it was a record high for any November at 193.19 million bushels. Oil Stocks were 1.084 billion pounds; the average oil inventory estimate was 1.123 billion pounds, starting the new soy oil marketing year at the lowest level since 2014/2015.   AgRural estimates the Brazilian  corn crop at 121.3 million mts (USDA 127) and Brazil’s soybean crop at 171.5 mil

Tidbits Today at 10 AM Mountain Time, the USDA will issue its December S&D . If the U.S. corn carryover is reduced by 75 million bushels, which is possible to probable, the carryover will be reduced by 2 days for the second consecutive month and 6 days since September.    Market advisor Kevin Duling summarized his lengthy Monday market analysis this way: “Despite how things feel, from a fundamental standpoint, things are on pace. Exports have been amazing across the board on

Highlights Yesterday, S&P Global reported China’s PMI rose to 51.5 in November, the highest since June as new export orders rose for the first time in four months. The market expected China’s PMI to be only 50.5. This is one the strongest one-month PMI gain ever for any country! China's November factory production expanded at the fastest pace in five months in November. New orders, including those from abroad, led to a solid rise in production, pushing manufacturers' optimism

Tidbits The market will be closed  on Thursday observing the Thanksgiving holiday. The final crop progress  report for the season: Winter wheat planting is at 97% complete - one of the most late-season endings. It is rated 55% good or excellent, 6% points improvement from a week ago and 10 better than five-year average level. As of the third week of November, Ukraine's total grain harvest  is 53.4 million mts, a 3.8% decline compared to the previous year, which includes 23.6