Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Highlights The Ukrainian army has launched a missile strike on the port of Feodosia in Crimea and claims to have destroyed a Russian landing ship, but reliable details of the aftermath, including casualties, have yet to emerge. This came just after Russia claimed full control of the village of Maryinka, an important strategic point for which battles have been fought since the spring of 2022. Between midnight last Tuesday and midnight yesterday, Rondonópolis received a total

Highlights Seasonal Marketing Roger has very painfully developed, over the decades, progressively more respect for seasonal price trends....

Originally written by Roger Wright for FarmProgress.com in September 2021 Here is why you need to be a basis seller and a futures seller,...

Crop Feedbacks Bill in North Central Kentucky called Roger yesterday shortly after noon to let us know that ADM at Silver Grove, KY, across the Ohio River from Cincinnati, pushed (firmed) their soybean bid to $13.00 cash, which was 13¢ firmer than their posted offer. Dave in Northeast Illinois has cut 2200 acres of beans which averaged 55 bu, down 7 bushels from the past two year average. Thanks, Dave. Matt in Northwest/Central Ohio harvested 15 tons of cereal rye forage la

Tidbits Chris farms near Andrew, in Central Alberta, Canada northeast of Edmonton. He reported Friday morning: "Good morning, Roger, We finished our spring wheat harvest last night. I figure we averaged about 92 bushels an acre." Hard Red Spring Wheat harvest is nearly complete and this year’s crop currently grades at U.S. No. 1 Northern Spring Wheat. Northern Durum is more than 75% harvested and it is grading as U.S. No. 1 Hard Amber Durum. Black Sea grain market guru, And

Highlights The USDA numbers did not justify a 25 to 30¢ lower close on soybeans. The 50.1 bu yield was in line with expectations. The 220-million-bushel 2023 crop carryover is tight enough to justify $17+ beans. The USDA actually increased 2022 crop corn and soybean exports! The 800,000 acreage increase of corn acres to 94.9 million and increased harvested corn acres for grain to 87.1 million acres was about 150,000 acres more than expected. Soybean acres were raised by 100,

Jon Scheve with weekly market commentary made on September 8, 2023 Dry weather is contributing to declining water levels on the...

How Asian Leaf Rust changed the paradigm of world grain trade Before 2001, Brazil was a net importer of corn. Now, Brazil is the world’s #2 corn exporter. This dramatic change came about because of the procedures to control the fungus, Asian Leaf Rust (ALR), in the Brazilian soybean crop. ALR was first reported in Brazil in 2001. Ever since 2001, epidemics of the disease have been common in Brazil, where the fungus can survive year‑round. Also known as Soybean Leaf Rust (S

Highlights Ukraine and Russia attacks on each other early Wednesday were not as aggressive as the previous two days which allowed some barges on the Danube to be loaded with Ukrainian grain. Two days ago, the railroads to the Danube River loading terminals were destroyed. If so, there will not be many barges loaded any time soon. Three weeks into the Russian wheat harvest, Black Sea grain guru Andrey Sizov reports only 14% of the wheat areas had been harvested as persistent

Highlights Russia announced yesterday morning US time that they would not renew the Grain Corridor Deal. The reaction in the corn and wheat was the typical “Buy the rumor and sell the fact.” The rumor was Russia would not renew the deal. Traders bought wheat and corn based on the rumor of less corn and wheat available to the world marketplace. When the non-renewal was confirmed, it was already priced into the market. Again, another example of "the expectation of an event will

A bull market is a market with prices in a distinct uptrend. A bear market is an opposite. Two types of bull markets: supply and demand

Tidbits Caixin Media is China's most influential financial media group. The Caixin newsroom is recognized as an unrivaled producer of independent, investigative journalism in China, and an indispensable source of information for investors, business leaders, policy-makers, and academics. Supposedly, the Chinese government has no input into their conclusions and predictions. Caixin Global is Caixin’s English language outlet and it will report the results of its Purchasing Man

Highlights The April CPI (inflation at the retail level) shows the US inflation rate the past 12 months was 4.9%, below the expected 5.0%. This is the 10th consecutive monthly drop in the US inflation rate. We get the PPI (inflation at wholesale level) tomorrow. Note the chart of US inflation rate since 2005: We are 9 days into the CBOT May deliveries. There has not been any corn delivered on a May futures contract, not one. That is bullish, Folks, very bullish! USDA will is

Outlook for Production Agriculture as of April 2019 (and April 2023 update) Long Term Outlook World population is increasing and more...

Why Is There Such A Price Difference Between KC Wheat and Chicago Wheat Futures? 2 March 2023 When I go to the CME website, I have...

Olga has Master’s Degree in Mechanical Engineering and she was smart enough to marry me, so she is not a person of low intelligence....

3rd week of October 2022 Roger, I expect higher prices into the winter and spring, but I feel like a fool to turn down these high harvest...

Joe asked: "Roger, what is the best method to protect from downward grain prices for my entire estimated production? Yet not get myself...

We have a communication problem when it comes options. With rare exception, when trading options on futures and stocks, people say they...

Highlights There is no consensus as to how many of Argentina's acres were damaged or how many mts were lost. We will get hundreds of reports and estimates in the coming week. The bigger issue is drought in Argentina. Today President Putin will reveal to Russia’s elite his plans of the “military operation" in Ukraine. If he is not pulling out of the wear, his speech will be supportive to prices of everything. Tidbits CBOT May beans gapped higher on the opening last evening, up