Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Highlights The European Commission will meet today to prepare a list of U.S. products to slap additional tariff fees in response to Trump's tariffs. Insiders say the list includes meat, cereals, wine, wood, clothing, chewing gum, dental floss, vacuum cleaners, and toilet paper. The Commission has threatened a 50% tariff on U.S. bourbon which prompted Trump to threaten a 200% counter-tariff on EU alcoholic drinks. David Perdue is President Trump’s nominee for ambassador to C

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index settled at 38,315, -3,269 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $62.32, -6.72. Dollar Index settled at 102.89, -1.12. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 1,489, -113 for the week. Corn May futures at $4.60¼, +7¢ for the week. December futures at $4.46¾, +4¼¢ for the week. Basis (K = May; e.g. 10K means 10¢ over May futures) (

The primary purpose of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is to promote fair and free global trade by developing international trade rules, resolving disputes, and facilitating negotiations and discussions on trade matters, ultimately aiming to improve global living standards and foster sustainable development. The WTO was formed in 1995 and replaced the General Agreement on Trades and Tariffs, aka GATT. The WTO accomplishes its mission by: Administering Trade Agreements, e

Tidbits At 5 AM Central yesterday morning, China announced an additional 34% tariff on all U.S. products beginning 10 April and Reuters reported China halted poultry products imports from two unnamed American companies. China added five other countermeasures that do not appear to be ag related. Corn, beans, and wheat dropped dramatically in the 30 minutes after the news was released while us peon market watchers wondered what happened. Corn fully recovered and settled hig

Tidbits OPEC+ is reversing its production cuts with output set to rise by more than expected in May because they see continuing healthy market fundamentals. After cutting their oil production for more than a year, OPEC+ will add 411,000 barrels per day in May. The larger-than-expected production boost by OPEC+ added to the tariff-fueled recession fears to sink oil prices more than $5 per barrel yesterday. The White House stated U.S. imports of oil, gas, and refined products w

Highlights Trump Tariffs announced in the Rose Garden of the White House at a press conference 4 to 5 PM Eastern Time yesterday applied to 180 countries. The list below was identified as the greatest offenders. Note that Mexico and Canada are not on the list: Regarding Canada and Mexico, Trump’s Executive order stated, in part: “With respect to articles from Canada and Mexico, I have imposed additional duties on certain goods to address a national emergency resulting from

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel, fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here. We discussed 2025 corn and soybeans marketing plan on March 23.Refer to our daily mailing on that day or this post on the website. Corn Corn situation after the close Tuesday, April 1, 2025:

Tidbits Today is when President Trump said his tariffs on various imported products from multiple countries will be announced. The market has probably overestimated the impact of these tariffs. Yesterday, the USDA reported total crush for February after the CBOT closed. The corn crush was 465 million bushels, down 6% from a year ago; corn crushed for ethanol was 421 million bushels, down 5%. The soybean crush was 189 million bushels, 2% less than a year ago. The canola cr

Highlights Often we have written and said: “The expectation of an event will move the market more than confirmation of that event.” Yesterday’s market action demonstrated that axiom. For two months, the endless talk has been about many more corn acres and fewer bean acres. That is exactly what the USDA reported. Corn acres were up 5% from 2024, while soybean area was 4% lower. Corn closed higher in most contracts yesterday and beans were down 8 to 9¢.

The reports were: Neutral to Friendly Old Crop Corn Negative New Crop Corn Neutral Soybeans Friendly Wheat 20 Minutes After the Report:...

Highlights At 11 AM Central Time today, the USDA will release its Quarterly Stocks on All Position Report as of 1 March and Intended Plantings Report. From a grain market standpoint, this is the second most important report of the year. Only the June Quarterly Stocks and Actual Plantings Reports are more important than today’s reports. Gary asked: "I am somewhat confused about the ADM corn survey you sent Sunday morning. Carryover down 198 (million bushels) from last yea

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index settled at 41,584, -401.45 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $69.04, +0.75. Dollar Index settled at 104.01, -0.14. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 1,602, -41 for the week. Corn May futures at $4.53¼, -11¢ for the week. December futures at $4.42½, -8½¢ for the week. Basis (K = May; e.g. 10K means 10¢ over May futures)

Highlights India is, by far, the largest world buyer of nitrogen fertilizer and they prefer urea. This past week India finally issued their first urea tender of 2025. It was expected to be issued from late January to the end of February. The nitrogen market-makers have been nervous and nitrogen retailers have been stressed the past few months waiting to see how much urea India would seek to buy and what price they would be willing to pay for it. That information is needed to

Tidbits Yesterday, May corn futures contract made a new low at $4.42 for “the move” (meaning since the recent high was made at $5.18¾ on 19 February) and then closed higher for the day. Technicians call that a “key reversal” and regard it as a trend changer. While very encouraging, nothing is 100% in this business. Jason Britt is President of Central States Commodities. He wrote yesterday: "Brazil’s corn better get more rain than this before the dry season actually star

Tidbits The Trump administration has urged oil and biofuels producers to collaborate on a new biofuels policy to prevent political conflicts similar to those in his first term. This initiative has led to at least two meetings, including one hosted by the American Petroleum Institute. Key discussions included increasing the mandate for renewable diesel and biodiesel from 3.35 billion gallons to between 4.75 billion and 5.5 billion gallons. Ethanol blending mandates are current

Tidbits Corn was sharply lower yesterday because of the weekly ethanol report (see below) and the fear of Monday’s USDA acreage and inventory report as well as continued tariff rhetoric. New orders for durable goods in the U.S. unexpectedly increased $2.7 billion or up 0.9% in February versus January following an upwardly revised 3.3% jump in January. The market expected February durable goods to be down 1%. Later this morning, we will get the U.S. GDP update. The market expe

Tidbits Dr. Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian corn and bean production estimates by 1 million mts. He has corn at 122 (USDA 126) and beans 169 million mts (USDA 169). The Brazilian Real gained 1.47% on the U.S. Dollar yesterday, which made Brazilian beans about 14¢ more expensive to foreign buyers than U.S. beans. Karen Braun is Reuters News Service Global Agricultural reporter. She put these U.S. Planted Acres estimated numbers together:

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel, fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here. We discussed 2025 corn and soybeans marketing plan on March 23. Refer to our daily mailing on that day or this post on the website. Corn Corn situation after the close Tuesday, March 24, 202

Highlights Pro Farmer released their U.S. planting projections on Friday. They expect 3.5% more corn acres at 93.75 million acres and a 2.4% decrease in soybean acres to 85 million. Spring wheat acres are expected to be down while durum wheat may see a slight increase in plantings. They see total wheat at 45.5 million acres, down 1.5% from last year. Some other surveys showed estimates about 95.4 million of corn and 82.75 million of soybeans. The CHS outlook for U.S. spring w

Tidbits Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney asked for the dissolution of Parliament, triggering a snap federal election for 28 April. Another variable to deal with is the trade and tariff debate. Mike Lee is a British agronomist who works in the Black Sea area, “The Breadbasket of the World.” We have exchanged some information with Mike for more than 20 years. Here is a 4-minute audio discussing the wheat crop condition in that area: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4_kHc-F