Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here. We discussed 2025 corn and soybeans marketing plan on March 23. Refer to our daily mailing on that day or this post on the website. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of

Tidbits August CBOT options expire Friday. Historical data suggests that poor corn pollination due to heat or drought could result in yield losses ranging from 1.5 bushels per acre per day of extreme heat (95+°F) during pollination which is approximately 0.8-1% per day based on a 182 bushels/acre trend yield. President Trump on Tuesday said the U.S. and Japan have struck a deal that will lower the hefty tariffs he had threatened to impose on goods from Japan while extractin

Tidbits Those of you who must deliver corn and beans this fall, if you have not already assessed production in your area versus normal production compared to the fall delivery basis being offered now, get with it. Normally, fall delivery basis needs to be set very late July or the first week of August. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock indexes closed at record highs yesterday, as optimism over strong corporate earnings outweighed ongoing trade tensions. It is very discouraging tha

Tidbits 247Ag reports Ohio has set a record for a month's average nighttime temperatures being the highest ever recorded, which is not good for pollination. Wells Fargo has suspended all travel to China after one of its employees was blocked from leaving China, causing broader anxiety about the risks of travel in the country. Wells Fargo's Chenyue Mao was subjected to an exit ban after she entered China in recent weeks. The Wallstreet Journal said the exit ban demonstrate

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 44,342, -30 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $67.3, -1.45. Dollar Index settled at 98.46, +0.59. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 2,052, +389. Corn September futures settled at $4.08½, +12½¢ for the week. December futures settled at $4.27¾, +15½¢ for the week. Basis (U = September; e.g. 10N means

Market Comment Let’s look at the technical situation for December corn. Corn began a downtrend after the high was made on 19 February 2025. The high for December corn that day was $4.79¾ and it settled at $4.76½, down 1¢ on the day, which is technically bearish, meaning new high for the trend and then closing lower the same day is bearish. But hey, it was only 1¢ lower on the day. Remember this: One cent lower settlement after a new high for the up-trending market is sign

Tidbits The talk of poor pollination for corn is getting some legs to stand on. It is three weeks too early to put a number on the potential yield impact because most of the corn has not pollinated yet, but pollination problems on this corn early corn are definitely worse than normal. Other problems with Tarpspot and fungicide being washed away in many areas. The fast growing corn plants have not only restricted the release of pollen, but agronomists are beginning to find ver

Tidbits Yesterday turned out to be a profit-taking day for recent corn buyers. The lowest weekly export old crop corn sales of the marketing year did not help, which is to be expected this time of year. The marketing year ends in 6 weeks and it takes 30+ days to get shipping lined-up. Farmer corn sales continue to be light. Yesterday, the Dyersville, Iowa ethanol plant firmed their basis 3¢ to 3 over September. Cargill’s Dayton, Ohio corn syrup plant has kept their basis 55 o

Tidbits December corn has closed higher 5 of the last 6 days and for 6 consecutive days, the high for the day was higher than the previous day’s high. September corn has done the same 3 consecutive days. Tomorrow is Friday. If corn futures settle steady or higher today, it is reasonable to expect some end of the week profit-taking tomorrow. On the other hand, there are more reports each day this week of pollination problems, now coming from four Corn Belt states. Is the polli

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here. We discussed 2025 corn and soybeans marketing plan on March 23, check it to have the general idea. Refer to our daily mailing on that day or this post on the website. We provide three diff

Tidbits The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported yesterday at midday they crushed 185.709 million bushels of soybeans in June, a 6% increase from June 2024. The NOPA soybean crush has now set new monthly records 8 of the 10 months this marketing year. Soybean oil stocks were down 6.7 million to 1.366 billion lbs., slightly higher than trade expectations. This is the smallest June oil inventory since 2004, and 16% lower than a year earlier. To learn more abo

Tidbits Yesterday’s new crop corn futures price action was technically significant. For example, December corn made new contract lows and then traded higher than Friday’s high and settled even with Friday’s high. If it had settled higher than Friday’s high, that would have been a trend changing indicator called a “key reversal.” If December corn had closed just under Friday's high, that would have been a “hook reversal,” a bullish indicator, but not as bullish as a key revers

Tidbits Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commodities of Brazil corn and soybean Saturday comments: "Brazilian soybeans shipped in September are among the most expensive on the market, surpassing those of the US and Argentina, making negotiations with China difficult. Meal, in turn, is so cheap that even Argentine shipments are competing with local products in Asia, creating a scenario of tight crushing margins. Meanwhile, soybean premiums (basis) rose 20 cents this week, and Brazil

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 44,373, -456 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $68.75, +2.25. Dollar Index settled at 97.87, +0.88. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 1,663, +227. Corn September futures settled at $3.96, -24¼¢ for the week. December futures settled at $4.12¼, -20½¢ for the week. Basis (U = September; e.g. 10N means

Highlights USDA increased their old crop corn export projection on yesterday’s S&D by 100 million bushels to 2,750 million bushels. The past four S&D reports have increased this marketing year’s corn exports a total of 300 million bushels. Unfortunately, USDA also reduced feed use for corn by 75 million bushels yesterday even though the marketing year ends 31 August. The animal numbers reported by USDA in recent months do not justify a feed cut and there was no increase in fe

The numbers were: Very Friendly to Bullish Corn Neutral to Unfriendly Soybeans Neutral Wheat Every corn number on the report was less...

Tidbits At 11 AM Central today, the USDA will issue its monthly S&D. Yesterday, we sent the July S&D estimates, but for the 2024 S&D, not for 2025! We humbly apologize. Here are the estimates for today’s report from USDA (note the U.S. carryout projection for old and new crop corn are both slightly less than the June carryout numbers): CONAB increased its corn production forecast for Brazil by 3.72 million mts to a record 131.97 million mts (USDA 130), with the safrinha crop

Tidbits Estimates for USDA’s S&D to be released tomorrow at 10 AM Mountain Time: CONAB (Brazil’s USDA) later this morning will release its revisions for Brazil’s crop production estimates. All products from Brazil imported to the U.S. will have a 50% tariff separate from Sectoral Tariffs (specific product tariffs), effective 1 August, as President Trump announced yesterday in an open letter to Brazil’s president. Brazil’s President Lula responded he will use the tariff reci

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here. We discussed 2025 corn and soybeans marketing plan on March 23. Refer to our daily mailing on that day or this post on the website. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of

Tidbits The number of predicted rain days for the Corn Belt were up again yesterday morning and most of Western Iowa received ½ to 1½ inches (12-38 mm) of rain yesterday. When it rains in Iowa in July, corn and bean prices will decline. Furthermore, CBOT prices typically decline until 1 to 2 days before a major USDA report and then recover a modest amount the day or two before the report. The July USDA S&D will be issued Friday. Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sal