BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Ag Canada  reported yesterday that wheat export  traders are saying Chinese buyers have bought 400,000 to 500,000 mts of wheat from Australia and Canada in recent weeks as drought and heat has already done significant damage to the wheat crop in Henan province, which grows about a third of China’s 140 million mts wheat crop. There is a reason May is the seasonal high for wheat prices, so do not be pricing new crop wheat yet.   A crop tour projects Oklahoma’s winter

Highlights The highly respected London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG, which bought Refinitiv, formerly the Financial and Risk business of Thomson Reuters) predicts U.S. corn acres at 94.3 million (USDA 95.3). Stats Canada reported corn for grain stocks as of 31 March 2025, were down 13% from a year ago at 7.197 million mt. Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 40,000 mts of old crop corn and 165,000 mts of new crop corn to Mexico 115,000 mts of old crop corn to unkn

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We discussed 2025 corn and soybeans marketing plan  on March 23.Refer to our daily mailing on that day or this post  on the website. We provide three different marketing plans (in order

Highlights India said it attacked nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Kashmir Wednesday early morning. Pakistan reported at least three people died and 12 were injured. The attack occurred amid heightened tensions between the nuclear-armed countries in the aftermath of an attack on a Hindu tourist area in India’s Kashmir area in April in which 26 men were killed, but Pakistan denied that it had anything to do with the killings. A Pakistani military spokesman told broadcaster

Tidbits There were two major factors that crushed the corn market yesterday: A weather forecast which will allow most of the nation’s remaining 60% corn acres to be planted in the next 10 days and the market’s conclusion that Brazil’s safrinha crop will be a bin buster because April rainfall was more than it was last year. The market ignored that the dry season has started for the safrinha corn and 40% of it was planted after the ideal planting window closed on 22 February an

Highlights The U.S. eliminated the exemption of tariffs  on goods under $800 shipped directly to consumers. Such goods, mostly from China, face a 120% tariff or a $100 flat fee per postal item, rising to $200 on June 1. This targets e-commerce giants like Shein and Temu.   The U.S. approached China for trade talks, but China insists on canceling 145% tariffs on its goods first, calling Trump’s strategy “extortion.” China retaliated with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods.   Fentanyl

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 41,317, +1,204 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $58.38, -4.79. Dollar Index  settled at 100.04, +0.45. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,421, +48 for the week. Corn July futures  at $4.69, -16½¢ for the week. December futures at $4.50¼, -5½¢ for the week. Basis   (N = July; e.g. 10N means 10¢ over July

Highlights OPEC+  members were scheduled to meet Monday, but the members decided to meet yesterday to discuss the pace of recovering the voluntary production cuts of the past two years, according to Kpler’s Amena Bakr. The virtual meeting’s agenda focused on “consensus building around maintaining the 411,000 barrels per day increased production for June.”   After yesterday’s meeting, OPEC+ announced it would increase crude oil output by 411,000 barrels per day starting June 1

Tidbits Yesterday, the U.S. stock markets  were sharply higher, the dollar was lower, soybeans were up 8, wheat was up 12, December corn was up 3¢ even with 95.3 million acres of corn expected to be planted this spring. Only the U.S. has old crop corn to export for another one to two months and corn exports have been huge, maybe more this marketing year than ever before. The old crop corn U.S. carryover is already tighter than it was in 2022 when July corn traded to $8.24 in

Tidbits The total U.S. soybean crush for March  was expected to be 205.5 million bushels, but USDA reported yesterday afternoon it was 206.572 million bushels, up 3% from a year ago. The March canola crush was 200,953 tons, down about 5% from a year ago. The total corn crushed in March was 504 million bushels and the corn for ethanol was 454 million bushels, both down 4% from a year ago. New unemployment claims  in the U.S. for the last reporting week were above average at 24

Tidbits U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported yesterday morning the U.S. economy  contracted 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025. Imports increased 41.3% which reduces GDP as the domestic economy does not produce imports. GDP is the measure of the value of all goods and services produced, not imported.  Many companies went on a purchasing spree in the first quarter to avoid the potential price increases caused by tariffs. First quarter contraction was a sharp reversal from

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We discussed 2025 corn and soybeans marketing plan  on March 23.Refer to our daily mailing on that day or this post  on the website. We provide three different marketing plans (in order

Tidbits The only excuse given for corn’s sharp losses yesterday was the planting progress being 2% more than a year ago. No doubt, yesterday being the last trading day before first notice day for deliveries on May futures had something to do with the decline. Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 120,000 mts of old crop corn to Spain and 110,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown. Also, an importer in Taiwan purchased 65,000 mts of U.S. corn and a South Korean im

Tidbits Today is the day to liquidate all May long futures positions and basis contracts to avoid any chance of delivery on May futures.  Both classes of winter wheat made new contract lows in the new crop contracts yesterday. New crop spring wheat traded within 5¢ of its contract low and settled 8¢ above the 28 March low.  Wheat used to trade inversely of the dollar index, but not this spring. The dollar index is down 11% from its 13 January high and just 1% above its low ma

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 40,114, +971 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $63.17, -1.28. Dollar Index  settled at 99.59, +0.36. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,373, +112 for the week. Corn May futures  at $4.78¾, -3½¢ for the week. December futures at $4.55¾, -10¼¢ for the week. Basis   (K = May; e.g. 10K means 10¢ over May fut

Q&A: Marketing Plans A Prospective Client asked on 22 April 2025:   "I am getting your trial emails and have a couple of questions. My marketing plan is to store as many bushels as possible on farm and market them as old crop between 5-12 and 6-22-25 selling ~17% each week for 6 weeks, maybe every Wednesday at noon? When selling old crop, do I just sell cash price for the nearby month and deliver during the six-week period described above?" We usually recommend you separate t

Q&A: Soybean Oil Chad asked: "Is soy oil as bullish as what some folks think it could be?"   No. Three years ago this week, May 2022 soy oil futures settled over 90¢ per pound and traded over 91¢. It was happy days for soybean and corn growers as construction had already been booked and many construction projects were well underway to nearly double the U.S soybean crush capacity by 2026 to produce enough soy oil to meet the biofuel demand that would need every bushel of soybe

Tidbits Soybean meal  prices in China and Brazil have been very strong this week. AgrInvest Commodities export trader Eduardo Vanin reports China’s soybean meal inventory is at a seven-year low. The rally was ignited by the report that first quarter feed production in China hit a new record high for the first three months of 2025 which was 7.6 million mts larger than 2024 and 5.4 million larger than 2023 which was the previous record.  Brazil's soybean exports are projected t

Tidbits StoneX’s fertilizer guy, Josh Linville, reports NOLA urea values have hit $450 for the first time since the end of 2022. For reference, 2022 ended with December corn prices at $6.00.   South Korean flour mills bought 50,000 mts of milling wheat  from the U.S.   Jordan has issued a tender to buy up to 120,000 mts of milling wheat. The S&P Global Composite (services and manufacturing) Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI ) for the U.S. was reported at 51.2, down from last mo

Tidbits May options expire  this Friday, April 25th. First notice day for May futures is April 30th. Treasury Secretary Bessent said yesterday morning he expects the trade war  between the U.S. and China to de-escalate since current tariffs are unsustainable. The market took that to mean that the White House may reverse its decision to place a tariff of 145% on China's imports. Equity markets got another boost when President Trump confirmed he has no plans to remove Federal R