BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Officials in Beijing increased public covid checks and locked-down some residential apartment complexes after the covid case load increased fourfold in recent days. The word “lockdown” scared the crude oil bulls yesterday, but crude held in there with a nice comeback of $1.56 to settle down only 67 cents. We highly recommend no long crude oil or petroleum product positions because of China’s battle with covid. Starting Jan 5th, the US will require negative covid te

This is Jeremey Frost with some not so fearless comments from www.dailymarketminute.com for Wright on the Market. I want to say thanks to Roger for allowing me the opportunity to share some of my thoughts with his customers on the grain markets. But before I do that I want to share with you a little about me and what I do. I am a former CHS Grain buyer for 20 plus years before going out on my own. I buy and sell cash grain for Banghart Properties, we mainly buy specialty cr

Highlights Soybean oil went down the daily limit and “locked” there in five contract months. “Locked” means there was no trading at limit down. Everybody wanted to sell, but no one wanted to buy and, so, no trades. There is a huge difference between “trading” at limit down and “locked” limit down. Due to soybean oil closing down the daily price change limit yesterday, the entire soybean complex will have expanded limits today. Soybean limits are $1.50, soybean oil 7 cents a p

Highlights Weekend elections in Taiwan changed the government leadership from an alliance with the USA to supporting re-alignment with mainland Communist China. This political shift redirects economic and military priorities directly toward mainland China. With the terrible riots protesting the Chinese Communist government in mainland China in the weeks leading up to Taiwan’s election, the election result kinda makes a person wonder who was in charge of the vote counting. But

Tidbits Protests at China Embassies are happening around the world this morning. Andrey Sizov’s comments on the China situation: "My information bubble really wants to believe that unrest in China is bullish commodities because now "authorities have to get rid of their zero-covid policy" We don't know how big is unrest, media talks about "thousands" on streets and it's 1.4 bln country. It's a regime ruled by a communist party which recently has become more authoritarian...don

Market Expects More Supply Chain Disruptions Massive weekend protests continue against the governments in Iran (human rights), China (covid lock-down) and Brazil (presidential election results). Iran sells crude oil and buys wheat, China buys crude oil and soybeans, Brazil sells corn and soybeans. The market took a negative attitude last evening. It was interesting that crude oil, which starts trading two hours before the CBOT, traded about 20 cents lower for those two hours

Highlights All the crude oil traders saw or heard yesterday was more cases of covid infection in China than any time since the dark days...

Tidbits Tomorrow at 11 AM Central Time, USDA will issue its monthly S&D. It looks like corn yields could be increased and exports should be reduced. But remember, the anticipation of an event will move the market more than confirmation of the event. A somewhat larger corn carryover is already priced into the market. Will the increased carryover be larger or smaller than expected? The answer to that question will determine how much the market moves after the report. We do not

Tidbits China’s government grain stock piler, Sinograin, announced yesterday (Sunday) it had agreed to buy 10 million mts of soybeans from Archer-Daniels-Midland Co, Syngenta, Louis Dreyfus, Bunge Ltd, Cargill Corp and COFCO International during a signing ceremony at an event in Shanghai, which included crude oil, coal, iron ore, etc. Before you mortgage the farm and buy soybean futures, be advised this is an annual event. China imports 90 to 101 million mt of soybeans a year

Highlights China’s health officials issued a statement Saturday afternoon saying it will continue with its "dynamic-clearing" (aka: zero tolerance) approach to COVID-19 cases adding that measures must be implemented more precisely. We are not sure if "more precisely" means more or less strictly. Asked if there would be a change of policy in the near term, disease control official Hu Xiang said China's measures are "completely correct, as well as the most economical and effect

Harvest Report: Northeast Indiana: "Good Morning Roger... thought I would share with you some of my corn pics to match up with your Vomi comments. There is a total of 5 pics in what I just sent: In my area it's pretty bad. I'm not willing to dry and store this knowing that the in the future months I am betting the merchandisers are going to really get more picky. The place I am taking this too know is only doing a cumulative vomi check on random loads for the entire day and

Highlights China's former Deputy Public Security Minister, Sun Lijun, who had been denounced for months "seriously damaging the unity of the party", has been jailed for life. The announcement was made early today just ahead of a key Communist Party congress. What is more important and may or may not be related to the Security Minister’s problems, late this afternoon China time, all commercial flights into and out of Beijing and about 60% of China’s commercial flights have be

Soybean Prices at Immediate Risk US Considering Pre-emptive Sanctions on China CHS is the largest agriculture coop in the world. They load a lot of ships with grain in the PNW for China delivery. Three hours ago, CHS’ Kevin Stockard: The U.S. is reportedly considering sanctions against China to discourage them from invading Taiwan. Two hours ago, CNBC reported: The United States is considering options for a sanctions package against China to deter it from invading Taiwan,

Highlights A few days ago, we reported a client’s fuel supplier told him that they were unable to get a load of diesel and their truck had to come home empty. No reason was given. Another of our clients did some research and learned that an electrical fire disabled the ability for the supplier to load tankers. Thanks, Don. USDA announced yesterday morning the sale of 264,000 mts of new crop soybeans to unknown destination. Soybeans settled yesterday 24 cents off the day’s l

Highlights December corn gapped higher last evening for the third time since the low was made July 22nd. None of the gaps have been filled as of midnight Sunday. Repeated gaps that are not filled are bullish, and more bullish. Take a look at the daily chart: Wayne Bacon has been involved with international grain trade for 59 years and is highly respected by us young guys. His weekly comments on Saturday included this: There were quite a few analysts who stated new crop soybea

Highlights Pro Farmer Tour Comments Sarah Jungman, Commodity Broker: 22 stops kept us on the go. Best field sample was irrigated 238 bpa (only field from Sioux Falls, SD to Grand Island, NE over 200 bushels). Best looking Nebraska dry land corn sample 138 bushels. Lowest yield of the day 17 bpa. Karen Braun, Ag Reporter, Reuters News Service: South Dakota corn yields averaged 118.45 bu/acre, 33 bushels less than 2021 and easily the tour's worst since 2012 (which was WAY wors

Highlights Did you notice that yesterday morning’s weekly export sales chart we sent you showed last week’s corn export sales were near the top end of the range of estimates and soybean sales were well above the top of the range? Those who say demand for corn and beans is poor do not know what they are talking about. Soybean meal sales in China have jumped this week. The 5 day moving average was 90,000 mt per day a week ago and now it is 260,000 mt per day. Nope, no demand

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 132,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China 132,000 mts of new crop soybeans to unknown destinations China is going to punish the US for Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan by suspending eight “cooperation mechanisms”: Dialogue with the US at the level of regional military commands. Working meetings with representatives of the Ministry of Defense. Meetings with US representatives under the Maritime Security Mechanism. Negotiat

Highlights Yesterday’s rumors were China bought 2-3 cargos of US soybeans and as many as 6 bean cargos from Brazil all for September shipment. Considering US beans at the Gulf are $25 per ton cheaper than Brazilian beans and Brazil’s short crop this past harvest means they have about 20 million fewer mts of beans to export, we are thinking it is more likely most of those rumored beans sales were US beans. China may be Communist, but they are not stupid Communists. A Benson-Qu

Highlights Nancy Pelosi’s plane arrived in Taiwan yesterday mid-morning just before beans tested their low for the day. The whole world was watching because China said they would retaliate militarily if she set foot in Taiwan. Apparently, the soybean and crude oil market were relieved her plane did not get blown out of the sky before its arrival as prices rallied after her plane landed, but then prices sunk back to near the lows of the day on the close. She has to get out of