BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits China made several announcements yesterday which show they are going to advance their effort to counter the U.S. trade actions that are forcing China to the negotiation table. China will convene an informal U.N. Security Council meeting on April 23 to accuse Washington of bullying and weaponizing tariffs, according to a document that outlines the key elements of a proposed project, initiative, or program at the United Nations. All 193 U.N. members are invited to atten

Tidbits China, having a near monopoly on the rare earth metals  industry, has hinted at a stoppage since the first Trump administration. The country produces over 99% of the world’s heavy rare earth metals as well as 90% of rare earth magnets.   What is a rare earth metal? There are 17 so-called rare earth metals that are named not for being rare, but for being extremely difficult and environmentally dangerous to mine and process.   These metals are sometimes turned into powe

Tidbits After handling a record number of ocean freight containers in 2024, containers are stacking up at China ’s ports. Shanghai and Guangdong ports are seeing idle containers that missed the April 9, 2025, U.S. tariff deadline. Virtually no cargo ships were heading to the U.S. from these ports as of mid-April, and factory production in export hubs like Zhejiang and Guangdong has largely been halted.    China’s fiscal revenue in the first quarter of 2025 was 1.1% less than

Tidbits The Chinese economy  expanded at an annual rate of 5.4% in the first quarter of 2025, keeping the same pace as in the 4th quarter of 2024. The market expected a slower pace of expansion of just 5.1%. China’s economic annual growth rate is the strongest in 1½ years.   Manufacturing sales in Canada rose 0.2% in February to CA$72 billion; the market expected a decline of 0.2%. February was the fifth consecutive month of increases and the highest level of sales since Sept

Tidbits China  bought a weekly record 60 ship loads of Brazil’s soybeans  this past week, boosted by robust farmer sales and better profit margins of China crushers. More than 5.2 million mts were sold.   Corporate China spent years living by the 996 rule: work 9 AM to 9 PM six days a week. Now, companies are beginning to ease off because of the potential loss of the American markets.   A highly unusual personnel move in the upper ranks of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) ha

Highlights China has responded to Donald Trump's trade tariffs by raising duties on U.S. goods by from 34% to 84% and by appealing to the...

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 240,000 mts of old crop corn to Spain. In February, U.S. agricultural trade deficit showed slight improvement, with exports decreasing to $13.59 billion (a drop of $830 million from January) and imports falling more sharply to $17.86 billion (down $2.81 billion). This reduction narrowed the monthly trade deficit to $4.27 billion, an improvement from January's record deficit of $6.25 billion. USDA projects 2025 financia

Highlights On 2 April, Trump applied an additional 34% reciprocal tariffs on China  added to the existing 20% duties already applied to Chinese imports. Together, they bring the total tariff rate to 54%, affecting nearly $600 billion in annual trade to combat currency manipulation, dumping (selling below the cost of production) of industrial products, and a host of other lesser offenses. China responded over the weekend with a series of countermeasures, including tighter expo

Highlights The European Commission will meet today to prepare a list of U.S. products to slap additional tariff fees in response to Trump's tariffs . Insiders say the list includes meat, cereals, wine, wood, clothing, chewing gum, dental floss, vacuum cleaners, and toilet paper. The Commission has threatened a 50% tariff on U.S. bourbon which prompted Trump to threaten a 200% counter-tariff on EU alcoholic drinks.   David Perdue is President Trump’s nominee for ambassador to

The primary purpose of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is to promote fair and free global trade by developing international trade rules, resolving disputes, and facilitating negotiations and discussions on trade matters, ultimately aiming to improve global living standards and foster sustainable development. The WTO was formed in 1995 and replaced the General Agreement on Trades and Tariffs, aka GATT.   The WTO accomplishes its mission by: Administering Trade Agreements,

Tidbits At 5 AM Central yesterday morning, China announced an additional 34% tariff  on all U.S. products beginning 10 April and Reuters reported China halted poultry products imports from two unnamed American companies. China added five other countermeasures that do not appear to be ag related. Corn, beans, and wheat dropped dramatically in the 30 minutes after the news was released while us peon market watchers wondered what happened.     Corn fully recovered and settled hi

Tidbits Today is when President Trump said his tariffs on various imported products from multiple countries will be announced. The market has probably overestimated the impact of these tariffs.     Yesterday, the USDA reported total crush for February after the CBOT closed. The corn crush was 465 million bushels, down 6% from a year ago; corn crushed for ethanol was 421 million bushels, down 5%. The soybean crush was 189 million bushels, 2% less than a year ago. The canola cr

Highlights India is, by far, the largest world buyer of nitrogen fertilizer and they prefer urea. This past week India finally issued their first urea tender of 2025. It was expected to be issued from late January to the end of February. The nitrogen market-makers have been nervous and nitrogen retailers have been stressed the past few months waiting to see how much urea India would seek to buy and what price they would be willing to pay for it. That information is needed to

Price of Crude Oil May Be Going Up Last week, the Iranian-backed Houthis said they would resume attacks on Israeli vessels sailing off the coast of Yemen in response to Israel’s latest blockade on Gaza. The Houthis' warning affected the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Arabian Sea.   President Trump ordered a series of airstrikes on the Houthi-held areas in Yemen on Saturday, promising to use “overwhelming lethal force” until Iranian-backed Houthi r

Highlights At 11 AM Central Time, the USDA will release its March S&D. It will be neutral for the market at the worst. Despite all the tariff rhetoric yesterday, the big news was the corn weekly export inspections. CHS summed it up this way:  “ Corn inspections were outstanding with the total setting a marketing year high. Inspections have been above one million tons for nine consecutive weeks. This is also the ninth week in a row where corn inspections have been above both l

Highlights On Saturday, China announced tariffs on over $2.6 billion worth of Canadian agricultural and food products, retaliating against Canadian tariffs introduced in October. The tariffs are scheduled to take effect on 20 March and they match the 100% and 25% import duties Canada slapped on China-made electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum products. Canola was excluded from a China tariff, which was one of Canada's top exports to the world's top agricultural importer pri

Highlights China’s government and financial sectors returned to work yesterday after the Lunar New Year holiday. Equity and commodity trading was remarkably calm given all the tariff talk, but the yuan was weak. That most likely comes from the consensus that China’s economy is wounded by weak financial, perhaps an unstable political situation and cannot battle Trump nearly as strongly as it did during his first term. All of Asia remains fixated on China and its next response

Highlights A 10% tariff  on Chinese imports into the U.S. went into effect yesterday. China said it will retaliate with a 15% tariff on U.S. coal, liquefied natural gas, a 10% tariff on crude oil, agriculture machinery, and pickup trucks. The volume of U.S. agricultural machinery exports to China is about $1 billion per year, the main exporter is the state of Iowa, with which China has established ties. Currently, Chinese tariffs affect 2-3% of total U.S. exports.   Note that

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 136,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown. Rumors are floating that China needs to buy corn. The U.S. is the only place to buy shiploads of corn until June. Three months ago, China said it harvested its biggest crop of corn last summer despite three typhoons moving across much of their corn growing area in July and August.   Early yesterday China halted soybean imports from five Brazilian companies because cargoes did no

Highlights The CBOT ag markets will not trade until 7 PM Monday evening due to MLK Day. Yesterday morning the European weather model  significantly reduced rainfall amounts for the next 10 days for Argentina. It had predicted 2½ to 3 inches (50-60 mm) before Friday morning's EUR model showed just a half to one inch (10-24 mm) in the Buenos Aires province which includes Salto, the sixth location on our rain day chart. It appears most (maybe all) other forecasters are sticking