BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Make Decision This Week About Fall Delivery Basis Last year the same recommendation was made about setting fall delivery basis in late July and again the first week in August.   Several clients called the first half of September and asked if they should be setting fall delivery basis?   Roger remembers one of the conversations very well and it went like this on 12 September 2023:   – Should I be setting fall delivery basis on my beans? I will not have enough storage for all o

Highlights Early Friday morning CrowdStrike deployed a content update to its Falcon Sensor agents, which triggered a system-level error that prevented Windows operating systems from booting properly. This resulted in a "Blue Screen of Death" or BSOD error on many Windows systems across various sectors, including banking, healthcare, government, and critical infrastructure. There is no indication of a hack; somebody simply made a mistake.     In premarket trading Friday mornin

Highlights Bloomberg reported what may go down as the most spectacular IT meltdown the world has ever seen, which occurred yesterday, was caused by a botched software update from cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike. The update crashed countless Microsoft Windows computer systems all over the world, idling airlines, banks, hospitals and even the London Stock Exchange. For several hours, bankers in Hong Kong, doctors in the UK, and emergency personnel in New Hampshire found themselv

Highlights All three wheat classes were lower yesterday, but the price free-fall was stopped by Egypt and Algeria submitted tenders to buy wheat. However, many wheat market analysts expect wheat to continue in a down trend as Northern Hemisphere harvest progress is more rapid and larger than normal. Despite the USDA increasing the size of the world wheat production by 5.5 million mts last Friday, the world will still produce less wheat than it uses this marketing year for the

Highlights Dr. Cordonnier left his yield and production estimates unchanged for US corn and beans.   French Ag ministry first production estimate of the year say's France's wheat production will be 15% less than a year ago due to poor weather.   Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in remarks to Congress yesterday the U.S. is "no longer an overheated economy" as the job market has cooled and in many ways is back where it was before the health crisis.   Powell told the

Highlights Weather in the crop areas of North America remains in the world's headline for grains and oilseeds followed by South American weather, Asian weather, then Eastern European weather, and lastly Western European weather. Percentage wise, we estimate 25 to 35% of the  crop areas of the world are experiencing production losses due to weather. The world's weather outlook this morning is for more of the same for the coming week.   If corn and bean futures are not higher t

Highlights Biden said late yesterday he will withhold weapons from Israel if it invades Rafah. Most news reports state Israel’s military went into Rafah on Tuesday.    The main crude oil news yesterday was the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported in the morning an inventory draw-down of 1.4 million barrels for the week ending May 3rd, which was much different than last week’s build of 7.3 million barrels. On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute estimated

Marketing recommendations for grain May basis contracts. Wheat weather problems. IRS summary.

Market Comment From Russ, who is located in Central South Dakota very close to the North Dakota border: "Our area and surrounding areas had and having the best corn crop ever. Piles all over at elevators and some elevators only taking contract or cash sales, but not many yet. A lot in fields yet. Some piles are wet 16 to 20, but normal for our area to have those piles, just not this size in a while.   So, if basis is -60 for Jan Feb, should be lock in when hauling some out, w

Originally written by Roger Wright for FarmProgress.com in September 2021 Here is why you need to be a basis seller and a futures seller,...

Highlights Naomi Blohm of West Bend, WI is a Senior Market Advisor, commodity broker, speaker, with Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson. Late yesterday morning, she posted on Twitter, now “X”: "Iowa friends, please tell me about your corn basis... two clients called in to tell me about sudden, drastic improvement of cash corn prices in their neighborhoods." Responses were: NE IA, elevators all saying they won't be filled. No piles. Feed mill manager said farmers bins wer

Highlights Crop progress: The nation’s corn crop is 45% harvested, 3% ahead of the 5 year average; the market expected 46%. The beans are 62% harvested, 10% ahead of the average; market expected 57%. Cotton is 33% harvested, 1% ahead of the normal harvest pace. Winter wheat is 68% planted, a perfectly normal pace. You can access all the crop condition and state by state progress at grainstats.com The NOPA September soybean crush was reported midday yesterday to be 165.456 mi

Politics Not a word about Ukraine’s corruption and its links with US political figures the past 24 hours. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) is the leading candidate for the Speaker position and he said he is against Ukraine aid. The war will not continue very long without US aid. If the war ends, is that bearish or bullish wheat and corn? In the first year or two, it will depend on how well the two enemies can work together to get everything up and running. About half of the House Rep

Basis Decision The cash price paid to farmers is a function of futures and basis. You need to separate the day you price them because the...

Highlights The world markets were really shaken by Fitch’s lower credit rating for the USA government. For a hundred years, America has been the beacon of all that is solid, successful, and reliable. A lower credit rating only happens to poorly managed entities. Yep, America is, in fact, a poorly managed entity. Putin and Turkey’s President Erdogan purportedly will discuss a revival of the export corridor. That news may have pressured corn and wheat even more than the down-

Highlights Russia announced yesterday morning US time that they would not renew the Grain Corridor Deal. The reaction in the corn and wheat was the typical “Buy the rumor and sell the fact.” The rumor was Russia would not renew the deal. Traders bought wheat and corn based on the rumor of less corn and wheat available to the world marketplace. When the non-renewal was confirmed, it was already priced into the market. Again, another example of "the expectation of an event wil

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) settled at 33,734.88, -672.72 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $73.67, +3.22. The Dollar Index settled at 102.27, -0.65. The Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 1,009, -82 points for the week. Below is corn, soybeans and wheat basis outlook this week. Corn September futures at $4.87¼, -1¼¢ for the week. December futures at $4.94½, -½¢ for the week. Basis (U = September; e.g. 10U means 10¢ over Sep

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) settled at 34,407.60, +680.17 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $70.45, +0.95. The Dollar Index settled at 102.92, +0.05. The Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 1,091, -149 points for the week. Below is corn, soybeans and wheat basis outlook this week. Corn September futures at $4.88½, -96¼¢ for the week. December futures at $4.94¾, -93¼¢ for the week. Basis (U = September; e.g. 10U means 10¢ over

Highlights It will be very hot this week in the crop areas of China with temperatures in Shandong and Hebei provinces expected to be over 104°F (40°C). Direct from the US National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) website: "The sea surface temperature (SST) began rising in March 2023 and has exceeded the maximum values for the last 42 years here in June. The likelihood that 2023 will be: The hottest since 1850: 28% Top 10 hot years since 1850: 99% The reason is th

Highlights The Tech Guy did a great job updating the weather situation with his mailing to his blog followers last evening. If you missed it, read it at: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/tech-guy-weekend-comments-6-18-23 The Bank of China has been on an easy money policy for months to stimulate the economy. Tomorrow morning their time (10 PM Eastern Time today), the interest rate is expected to be reduced by 10 basis points (one tenth of one percent). The easier the mo