BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 42,864, +511.11 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $75.49, +1.04. Dollar Index  settled at 102.92, +0.43. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,809, -119 for the week. Corn December futures  at $4.15¾, -9¢ for the week. Basis   (Z = Dec; e.g. 10Z means 10¢ over December futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash

Highlights The main point of interest on yesterday’s S&D was what would the USDA do with corn and bean yields. The market expected both to be reduced slightly. USDA did lower bean yields one-tenth of a bushel, as expected, but increased corn yields two-tenths of a bushel while the market expected a two-tenths of a bushel reduction.   USDA increased corn demand by 73 million bushels, bringing the total increase in corn demand since 1 November to 813 million bushels! Throw in t

The numbers were: Neutral Corn Neutral Soybeans Neutral Wheat   17 Minutes After the Report: Dec corn -1 Nov beans -5 Dec CBOT wheat -9...

Highlights The USDA will release at 11 AM Central Time today its monthly S&D. Note below every average estimate is less than the September USDA S&D. ADM’s summary: On the economy front, we got mixed news yesterday morning. Inflation was higher than expected (a reason for higher interest rates) and unemployment claims were higher than expected (for lower interest rates).   The Labor Department reported the Consumer Price Index (CPI, inflation at the retail level) rose 2.4% for

Highlights The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report highlights: U.S. ethanol production was up; market expected it to be down U.S. ethanol stocks were way down; market expected moderate decline to up a little U.S. gasoline demand was 6.4% stronger than the four-week average   Karen Braun shared a summary: USA exported a record volume of ethanol over the last year (Sep 2023-Aug 2024), some 30% above the recent five-year average. USA's 2024 imports of anim

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close  Tuesday, October 8 , 2024: December corn settled yesterday at $4.22¼, -6¾¢ since last Tuesda

Highlights The river gauge at Memphis will restrict barge drafts by October 13th if no rain comes this week. Weather Monday night poured down rain in Western Pennsylvania.   Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 166,000 mts of old crop (2024) soybeans to China.     Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his U.S. corn and soybean numbers unchanged. He has corn at 15.09 billion bushels with a yield forecast of 182.5 bushels (USDA 15.186 & 183.6) and his soybean numbers at 4.44

Highlights Cash crude oil was $2.91 higher and futures were $2.76 higher yesterday for several reasons: Expectations Israel will hit Iran’s crude oil fields and refineries (not likely to happen). Oil platforms shutting down as Hurricane Milton moves across the Gulf of Mexico.   For the second consecutive week, the largest speculative short position held by speculators. Ukraine said it had struck a major offshore oil terminal in Russian-occupied Crimea. China announced its eco

Tidbits Stock markets around the world kick-off today with the global macro and market landscape very different from how it looked on Friday morning thanks to a set of U.S. employment figures that not even the most bullish of forecasters expected.   The immediate shift in U.S. interest rate futures markets indicate a 50-basis point rate (one-half percent) cut next month is now completely off the table. The markets signal a quarter-point cut at each of the next two Federal Ope

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 42,353, +39.75 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $74.45, +5.81. Dollar Index  settled at 102.49, +2.07. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,928, -182 for the week. Corn December futures  at $4.24¾, +6¾¢ for the week. Basis   (Z = Dec; e.g. 10Z means 10¢ over December futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash

Tidbits The Spec funds and the Index funds were net buyers of corn, soybeans and all three classes of wheat on the Commitment of Traders Report (COT) released Friday afternoon for the reporting week ending last Tuesday.   End of the week profit-taking on long positions had everything weaker Thursday and Friday plus and pre-hedging pressure on the corn and beans. The increased rain in the forecast for Brazil also pressured beans to an extent, but rain does not mean more Brazil

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 116,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China and 198,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown. On its weekly tender, Japan bought 137,000 mts of milling wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia. Saudi Arabia is still looking for 295,000 mts of hard milling (bread) wheat.   Estimates for yesterday morning’s employment report were forecasting an increase of 147,000 non-farm jobs, a 0.3% increase in hourly earnings, and an unchan

Highlights We continue to hear of yields that are terrible and yields that are the best ever from across the Corn Belt. We really do not have any confidence in saying the USDA should raise or lower national average yields on next Friday’s S&D. We do sense bean yields are more likely to see a yield reduction or a smaller increase than corn.       Rain in the forecast for Brazil and no rain in the forecast for Corn Belt pressured corn and beans yesterday. Wheat prices were thum

Tidbits The European Commission has proposed a delay of its landmark law Deforestation-Free Products Regulation (DFPR). You may recall that ADM was offering a 15 or 20¢ premium for soybeans with a certificate that the beans were not grown on land cleared of trees within the past few years. That was because ADM wanted to sell soybean meal to Europe in 2025 and, without the DFPR certificate, no commodity would be allowed to enter the EU in 2025. Due to the massive backlash of t

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring) for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close  Tuesday, October 1 , 2024: December corn settled yesterday at $4.29, +17¼¢ since last Tuesday. The past 7 days’

Highlights Late last evening local time, Iran reportedly launched 186 missiles at Israel, which the Iranian regime said was in retaliation to the killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders by Israel. Israeli air defense capabilities were actively engaging the incoming Iranian munitions, but warned the defense network is not airtight and urged civilians to follow safety advisories from the Israeli military’s Home Front Command. That news sent crude oil cash prices more than $3 hig

Highlights Nothing in yesterday’s reports changed our price outlook. We expected neutral to somewhat friendly numbers and that is what USDA gave us. USDA reduced the size of the 2023 U.S. soybean crop by 3 million bushels to 4,162 million bushels. USDA did not change the 2023 corn production.   The biggest surprise, but not a big one, was corn demand was substantially more (84 million bushels) than the market expected. That was a 0.56% increase in demand and a reduction of 4.

The numbers were: Friendly Corn Neutral Soybeans Neutral Wheat   16 Minutes After the Report: Dec corn +6 Nov beans -2 Dec CBOT wheat +8...

Highlights At 11 AM Central Time today, the USDA will issue its Quarterly Grain Stocks Report. It will show the inventory of all commodities as of September first and there could be some production and consumption adjustments made for any of the past three marketing years. In other words, there could be some big surprises. We expect some serious long futures profit-taking and cash selling of corn and beans before the report comes out.    The ten-day weather forecast showed ra

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 42,313, +249.64 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $68.64, -2.61. Dollar Index  settled at 100.42, -0.32. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 2,110, +133 for the week. Corn December futures  at $4.18, +16¼¢ for the week. Basis   (Z = Dec; e.g. 10Z means 10¢ over December futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cas