BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We discussed 2025 corn and soybeans marketing plan  on March 23. Refer to our daily mailing on that day or this post  on the website. We provide three different marketing plans (in ord

Tidbits Yesterday at midday, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the trade talks  with China in London were going well and he hoped they would end on Tuesday night but said they could run into Wednesday. Later, he said the two sides have reached a framework to implement the Geneva consensus and the call between their respective presidents. ADM reports Trump is looking at rolling back the port fees  on China vessels scheduled to take effect in October. Dr. Cordonnier i

Tidbits Former Minnesota farmer, now Brazil’s 25-year experienced agricultural consultant, Kory Melby, posted on X yesterday afternoon: “I think today's corn market action will reverse quickly in the coming days as the models revert back to old forecasts. I think today was a counter trend move fake out.” Cash soybean export trader, Eduardo Vanin, with AgrInvest Commodities in Brazil reported yesterday soybeans from Brazil net cost  to China for September shipment was 215¢ ove

Tidbits Argentina's  Rosario Grain Exchange is warning that the country stands to lose significant corn and soybean meal export share to Vietnam in the wake of a U.S.-Vietnam trade deal.   In the area of Boa Esperança Do Norte, Mato Grosso  a record yield of safrinha corn was announced: 223 bushels/acre (233.16 60Kg-bags/hectare).    AgRural raised Brazil’s  corn production to 128.5 million mts (USDA 130), supporting medium-term supply. However, AgRural warns early planting i

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 42,763, +493 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $64.77, +4.01. Dollar Index  settled at 99.2, -0.24. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,633, +215 for the week. Corn July futures  at $4.42½, -1½¢ for the week. December futures at $4.49¼, +10¾¢ for the week. Basis   (N = July; e.g. 10N means 10¢ over July f

Tidbits A bear spread is when a trader sells the nearby futures contract and buys the deferred futures contract.   A bull spread is when a trader buys the nearby futures contract and sells the deferred futures contract.   When there is plenty of old crop and no chance of a shortage of old crop, the old crop futures price will be below the new crop price. Why? The new crop is not made yet and it is at a higher price because of the weather risk. The old crop corn is in the bin.

Tidbits President Trump  said his senior administration officials will meet with their Chinese  counterparts in London for trade talks on June 9. Trump also confirmed that he and Xi agreed to visit each other once in China and again in the U.S.   China  has called for improving bilateral ties with Canada and is willing to work with Canadian officials to address each other’s concerns according to Chinese Premier Li Qiang.   The EU  agriculture commissioner has said the EU is o

Tidbits Reuters reported yesterday that President Trump  and China's leader Xi held a phone call  that lasted about 90 minutes. The primary topic was trade. U.S. and Chinese officials plan to meet in person soon, resuming formal trade negotiations. Soybeans were higher because of that news. President Trump also had a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin following the Ukrainian drone attack on Russian airfields. Vladimir Putin stated that he will be obliged to resp

Tidbits U.S. crude  oil inventories dropped more than expected last week, it is about 7% below the five-year average, with the weekly production held steady. President Donald Trump has signed an order doubling tariffs on steel  and aluminium imports from 25% to 50%. Trump has said the measures, which came into effect on Wednesday, are intended to secure the future of the American steel industry. There has been no retaliation from the EU yet, they had warned of countermeasures

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We discussed 2025 corn and soybeans marketing plan  on March 23. Refer to our daily mailing on that day or this post  on the website. We provide three different marketing plans (in order

Tidbits Bloomberg reports Vietnam is expected to sign deals with the U.S. to increase purchases of ag exports. Corn and DDGS are at the top of the list. Vietnam has offered to remove all tariffs on U.S. products and increase its purchases of U.S. products. Vietnam is the world’s third largest importer of corn. Edurdo Vanin reported last evening:  “ U.S. beans  are the cheapest for smaller vessels for Europe and North Africa for Aug and Sept shipments, even cheaper than Northe

Tidbits The USDA reported the crush numbers for April after the close yesterday. The soybean crush was 202 million bushels. That is 13.5% more beans crushed this past April than April 2024! The canola crush was 161,022 tons, down 14.6% from a year ago. Cottonseed once refined was 24.7 million lbs, down 12%. The April corn crush was 475 million bushels, up 1% from a year ago. Corn for ethanol was also up 1% at 426 million bushels. In April, Canadian canola  crushing was 0.92 m

Tidbits USDA April crush numbers  for soybeans, canola, and corn will be issued 2 PM Central today.   Over the weekend, India  reduced the tariff  on all vegetable oils by 10%. Domestic veg oil supplies are priced higher than any imported oil, according to Tushar Agarwal, market analyst for edible oils.   Yesterday, Ukraine  launched a massive drone strike on Russia  sending drones 2,670 miles (4300 kms) past the battle line, deeper into Russia than ever before. Drone hit mul

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 42,270, +667 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $60.76, -1.00. Dollar Index  settled at 99.44, +0.34. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,418, +78 for the week. Corn July futures  at $4.44, -15½¢ for the week. December futures at $4.38½, -12¼¢ for the week. Basis   (N = July; e.g. 10N means 10¢ over July f

Tidbits President Trump said Friday evening he increased tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%.  Head-and-Shoulders Formation A head-and-shoulders  formation is a technical indicator of a trend change from up to sideways or down. Such formations are formed on charts where one vertical line (a bar) represents the trading range for one day or one week. During a few weeks multiple bars form a pattern that resembles a head above a left and right shoulder. Usually

Highlights Multiple U.S. sources, including President Trump, said yesterday that trade negotiations with China  are going nowhere and perhaps backwards. That news is not a big surprise as there has been no news about the negotiations. The Wall Street Journal reported that the US-China trade deal is at risk of falling apart over rare earth minerals.   The U.S. trade deficit  narrowed to $87.6 billion in April, down $74.6 billion (46%) from a record $162.3 billion in March. The

Tidbits A federal appeals court  granted a Trump administration request yesterday to reinstate the tariffs  struck down by the U.S. Court of International Trade on Wednesday ruling President Trump overstepped his authority when he cited the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as justification for levying tariffs. The IEEPA authorizes the President to act when an unusual and extraordinary threat to the United States, originating in whole or substantial par

Tidbits A U.S. trade court  on Wednesday blocked President Donald Trump's tariffs from going into effect in a sweeping ruling that the president overstepped his authority by imposing across-the-board duties on imports from nations that sell more to the United States than they buy. The Court of International Trade said the U.S. Constitution gives Congress exclusive authority to regulate commerce with other countries that is not overridden by the president's emergency powers to

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We discussed 2025 corn and soybeans marketing plan  on March 23. Refer to our daily mailing on that day or this post  on the website. We provide three different marketing plans (in order

Tidbits Corn planting progress  is now at 87% vs 85% 5-year average. Corn crop conditions were rated at 68% good or excellent vs 75% this time last year. Soybean planting progress is now at 76% vs 68% 5-year average. Winter wheat сonditions were rated 50% good or excellent. Dr. Michael Cordonnier reduced his Argentine soybean forecast by 1.5 million mts to 48.5 million mts (USDA 49) due to flooding, while maintaining his Argentine corn estimate at 50 million mts (USDA 50), as