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Weekly Summary & Recommendations 7/6/22

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat for past week Wednesday to Tuesday.



Corn


Corn situation after the close Tuesday, July 5, 2022:

December corn settled on Tuesday at $5.78¾.

Price change Tuesday to Tuesday: down $0.80½.

The past week’s high was $6.62½, the low was $5.71.

Contract high is $7.66¼ made May 16, 2022;

Contract low is $3.69 made June 26, 2020;

Range is $3.97¼.

Yesterday’s closing price is:

$1.87½ below the contract high;

$2.09¾ above the contract low.

USDA’s 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 36, world: 95

USDA’s 2022 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 35, world: 96

Seasonal Trend is down

Fundamentals: Bullish

Technical Situation: Bullish short and long term

Price Above Breakeven? Yes

Conclusion: Sell all 2022 corn on a December HTA at $7.24


This week's Bullish Consensus:

Corn

Grainstats

Wright on the Market

bullish

29%

61%

neutral

19%

17%

bearish

51%

22%


 

Soybeans


Soybean situation after the close Tuesday, July 5, 2022:

November Soybeans settled on Tuesday at $13.16.

Price change Tuesday to Tuesday: down $1.46½.

This past week’s high was $15.07¾, the low was $13.04.

Contract high is $15.84¾ on June 10, 2022;

Contract low is $8.81 on August 7, 2020;

Range is $7.03¾.

Tuesday’s closing price is:

$2.68¾ below the contract high;

$4.35 above the contract low.

USDA’s 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 17, world: 86

USDA’s 2022 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 22, world: 97

Seasonal Trend is up through next week

Fundamentals are Bullish

Technical Situation is Bullish

Price Above Breakeven? Yes

Conclusion: Don’t Sell

This week's Bullish Consensus:

Soybeans

Grainstats

Wright on the Market

bullish

16%

65%

neutral

28%

24%

bearish

56%

12%


 

Wheat


Wheat situation after the close Tuesday, July 5, 2022:

July 2023 KC Hard Red Winter Wheat settled on Tuesday at $8.61¾.

Price change Tuesday to Tuesday: down $0.99¾.

Last week’s high was $9.80½, the low was $8.58¾.

Contract high is $12.10 on May 19, 2022;

Contract low is $4.94 on August 4, 2020;

Range is $7.16.

Tuesday closing price is:

$3.48¼ below the contract high;

$3.67¾ above the contract low.

USDA’s 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 124, world: 129

USDA’s 2022 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 121, world: 124

Seasonal Trend is down

Fundamentals outlook is bearish

Technical Situation is down

Price Above Breakeven? Yes.

Conclusion: Sell 2023 July KC on a HTA at $9.98 or higher or buy put option

Previously recommended sell at $8.35, filled March 21st


This week's Bullish Consensus:

Wheat

Grainstats

Wright on the Market

bullish

26%

70%

neutral

19%

10%

bearish

54%

20%


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