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Weekly Summary & Recommendations 05/18/2022

Summary & recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat this week.



Corn


Corn Situation after the close 17 May 2022 Even though we expected old crop futures to exceed $7, we recommended since June 29, 2021 pricing 2021 corn when nearby futures were $6.22 to eliminate risk and prepare to buy puts when high is made this spring or early summer to make the money on the way down not made on the way up. May corn traded above $6.22 on January 25, 2022. On May 13, we recommended selling any remaining old crop corn at the market (about $7.85 July futures), basis contracts, long call options, DP, etc. Did NOT recommend buying puts just yet. July 2022 corn made its high April 29th at $8.24½ and settled yesterday at $8.00¾ December corn settled at $7.19 on Tuesday, 17 May 2022 Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 41¾ cents 24-month high $7.66¼ made 16 May 2022, $1.28¼ above the Dec corn 2021 high 24-month low $3.68¾ made June 26, 2020 24-month range is $3.97¼ Yesterday’s closing price is: 5½ cents below the 24-month high $3.91¾ above the 24-month low USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 35, world: 94 USDA's 2022 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 34, world: 94

Seasonal Trend is up into third week of June Fundamentals are Bullish Technical Situation is Bullish Price Above Breakeven? Yes Conclusion: Sell December HTA at $7.50 or better

The past week’s low was $7.19; the high was $7.66¼


May 18th, 2022, Bullish Consensus:

Corn

Grainstats

Wright on the Market

bullish

73%

34%

neutral

16%

48%

bearish

2%

17%

no opinion

9%

0%


 

Soybeans


Soybean Situation After the Close Tuesday, May 17th, 2022:

We recommended pricing 2021 beans March futures at $14.78 to establish a floor even though we expected the old crop high to be early summer over $17.00 at which time, we recommend you buy puts to make money on the way down not made on the way up.

Update: July soybeans traded to $17.41 on 24 February, exceeding the 2020 old crop high by 72½ cents. July beans settled at $16.78 on May 17th.

November Soybeans Settled May 17th at $15.25½.

Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 70¾ cents.

24 Month high $15.55 on 24 February 2022, 75 cents above the November 2021 high

24 Month low $8.81 on 7 August 2020

24 Month Range is $6.74

Tuesday’s closing price is:

29½ cents below the 24-month high

$6.44½ above the 24-month low

USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 19, world: 86

USDA's 2022 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 26, world: 96


Seasonal Trend is up

Fundamentals are Bullish

Technical Situation is Bullish

Price Above Breakeven? Yes

Conclusion: Don’t Sell


This past week’s low was $14.52¾, high was $15.30¾

This week's Bullish Consensus:

Soybeans

Grainstats

Wright on the Market

bullish

55%

55%

neutral

21%

24%

bearish

16%

21%

no opinion

8%

0%


 

Wheat


Wheat Situation After the Close Tuesday, May 17th, 2022:

We recommended pricing July 2022 soft red winter wheat at $7.97 in January. It settled at $12.77½ on May 17th, 2022.

On April 7th, 2022, we recommended buying September $9.00 CBOT Puts at 30 or better. Filled. The premium of the $9.00 put at yesterday’s close was 7 cents.

On Monday, March 7, 2022 we recommended pricing July KC hard red winter wheat at the market on the opening, which was $12.08. The high that day was $12.59.

July KC Hard Red Winter Wheat settled Tuesday at $13.67¾.

Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up $1.92¾

24-month high: $13.79¼ May 17, 2022

24-month low $5.03¼ August 24th, 2020

24-month range is $8.62¾

Tuesday closing price is:

11½ cents below the 24-month high

$8.1¼ above the 24-month low

2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 124, world: 129

2022 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 120, world: 124


Seasonal Trend is down

Fundamentals outlook is bearish

Technical Situation is down short term, up long term

Price Above Breakeven? Yes.

Conclusion: Sell 2022 HTA July at $12.08 or higher

Sell 2023 HTA KC July wheat $8.35, filled March 21st; settled at $12.07 yesterday. Keep Selling


Last week’s low July 2022 was $11.75; the high was $13.79


This week's Bullish Consensus:

Wheat

Grainstats

Wright on the Market

bullish

66%

62%

neutral

24%

23%

bearish

13%

15%

no opinion

7%

0%


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