Weekly Summary & Recommendations 03/17/2022
Corn Situation after the close 15 March 2022
Even though we expected old crop futures to exceed $7, we recommended pricing 2021 corn when nearby futures were $6.24 to eliminate risk and prepare to buy puts when high is made this spring or early summer to make the money on the way down not made on the way up. May corn made a new high on March 4th at $7.82¾ and settled yesterday at $7.58.
December corn settled at $6.51¼ on Tuesday 15 March 2022
Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 7½ cents
20-month high $6.58 made 14 March 2022, 20 cents above the Dec 2021 corn high
20-month low $3.68¾ made June 26, 2020
20-month range is $2.89¼
Yesterday’s closing price is:
6¾ cents below the 20 month high
$2.82¼ above the 20-month low
USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 30, world: 93
USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 35, world: 92
Seasonal Trend is down for two weeks then up into late June
Fundamentals are Bullish
Technical Situation is Bullish
Price Above Breakeven? Yes
Conclusion: Don’t sell
The past week’s low was $6.27½; the high was $6.58
March 15th, 2022, Bullish Consensus:
Grainstats.com: Wright on the Market
62% bullish 63%
23% neutral 34%
9% bearish 3%
6% no opinion 0%
Soybean Situation After the Close Tuesday, March 15, 2022:
We recommended pricing 2021 beans March futures at $14.78 to establish a floor even though we expected the old crop high to be early summer over $17.00 at which time, we recommend you buy puts to make money on the way down not made on the way up.
Update: May soybeans traded to $17.59¼ on 24 February, exceeding the 2020 old crop high by 91¾ cents. May beans settled at $16.58¾ on March 15th.
November Soybeans Settled at $14.67.
Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: down 6¼ cents.
18-month high $15.55 on 24 February 2022, 75 cents above the November 2021 high
18-month low $8.81 on 7 August 2020
18 Month Range is $6.74
Tuesday’s closing price is:
88 cents below the 18-month high
$5.86 above the 18-month low
USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 21, world: 103
USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 24, world: 90
Seasonal Trend is up
Fundamentals are Bullish
Technical Situation is Bullish
Price Above Breakeven? Yes
Conclusion: Don’t Sell
This past week’s low was $14.57¼, high was $15.04½
This week's Bullish Consensus:
Grainstats.com Wright on the Market
57% bullish 55%
23% neutral 36%
12% bearish 9%
8% no opinion 0%
