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Weekly Summary & Recommendations 03/09/2022

Corn


Corn Situation after the close 8 March 2022 Even though we expected old crop futures to exceed $7, we recommended pricing 2021 corn when nearby futures were $6.24 to eliminate risk and prepare to buy puts when high is made this spring or early summer to make the money on the way down not made on the way up. May corn made a new high this past week at $7.82¾ and settled yesterday at $7.53.

December corn settled at $6.43¾ on Tuesday 8 March 2022 Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 19 cents 20-month high $6.54¾ made 8 March 2022, 16¾ cents above the Dec corn 2021 high 20-month low $3.68¾ made June 26, 2020 20-month range is $2.85¾

Yesterday’s closing price is: 11 cents below the 20 month high $2.74¾ above the 20-month low USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 30, world: 94 USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 38, world: 92

Seasonal Trend is Down Until 1 April, then up into late spring Fundamentals are Bullish Technical Situation is Bullish Price Above Breakeven? Yes Conclusion: Don’t sell

The past week’s low was $6.04½; the high was $6.54¾

This week's Bullish Consensus

Corn

Grainstats

Wright on the Market

bullish

68%

56%

neutral

14%

33%

bearish

14%

8%

no opinion

4%

3%



 

Soybeans


Soybean Situation After the Close Tuesday, March 8, 2022:

We recommended pricing 2021 beans March futures at $14.78 to establish a floor even though we expected the old crop high to be early summer over $17.00 at which time, we recommend you buy puts to make money on the way down not made on the way up.

Update: May soybeans traded to $17.59¼ on 24 February, exceeding the 2020 old crop high by 91¾ cents. May beans settled at $16.89¾ on March 8th.

November Soybeans Settled at $14.73¼.

Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: down 3¾ cents

18-month high $15.55 on 24 February 2022, 75 cents above the November 2021 high

18-month low $8.81 on 7 August 2020

18 Month Range is $6.74

Tuesday’s closing price is:

81¾ cents below the 18-month high

$5.92¼ above the 18-month low

USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 21, world: 101

USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 27, world: 92


Seasonal Trend is up

Fundamentals are Bullish

Technical Situation is Bullish

Price Above Breakeven? Yes

Conclusion: Don’t Sell


This past week’s low was $14.20, high was $14.86


This week's Bullish Consensus:

Soybeans

Grainstats

Wright on the Market

bullish

56%

51%

neutral

21%

33%

bearish

18%

11%

no opinion

5%

5%




 

Wheat


Wheat Situation After the Close Tuesday, March 8, 2022:

We recommended pricing 2022 soft red winter wheat $7.97 in January.


On Monday, March 7, 2022 we recommended pricing July KC hard red winter wheat at the market on the opening, which was $12.08. The high that day was $12.59.


July KC Hard Red Winter Wheat settled Tuesday at $11.78¼.

Price Change Tuesday to Friday: up $1.87½

19-month high: $12.59 March 7, 2022

19-month low $5.03¼ August 24th, 2020

19-month range is $7.55¾

Friday’s closing price is:

80¾ cents below the 19-month high

$6.75 above the 19-month low

2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 146, world: 135

2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 122, world: 129


Seasonal Trend is down

Fundamentals bullish if it does not rain in USA & Black Sea War

continues for three months, neither of which is likely

Technical Situation is down

Price Above Breakeven? Yes.

Conclusion: Sell 2022 HTA July at $12.08

and place order to sell 2023 HTA July wheat at $8.35


Last week’s low was $9.83¾; the high was $12.59


This week's Bullish Consensus:

Wheat

Grainstats

Wright on the Market

bullish

56%

51%

neutral

19%

36%

bearish

15%

8%

no opinion

10%

5%


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