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Weekly Summary & Recommendations 02/16/2022

Corn


Corn Situation after the close 15th February 2022 Even though we expect old crop futures to exceed $7, we recommended pricing 2021 corn when nearby futures were $6.24 to eliminate risk and prepare to buy puts when high is made this spring or early summer to make the money on the way down not made on the way up.

December corn settled at $5.89¾ Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 7¾ cents 20-month high $5.98¾ made 14 February 2022 20-month low $3.68¾ made June 26, 2020 20-month range is $2.30

Yesterday’s closing price is: 9 cents below the 20 month high $2.21 above the 20-month low USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 30, world: 94 USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 38, world: 92

Seasonal Trend is Up Fundamentals are Bullish Technical Situation is Bullish Price Above Breakeven? Yes Conclusion: Don’t sell

The past week’s low was $5.80¾; the high was $5.98¾

This week's Bullish Consensus

Wright on the Market

bullish

36%

70%

bearish

22%

8%

neutral

38%

22%

no opinion

4%

0%


Corn Futures Seasonality 20 years chart

 

Soybeans


Soybean Situation After the Close Tuesday, February 15th, 2022:

We recommended pricing 2021 beans at $14.78 March to establish a floor even though we expect the old crop high to be early summer over $17.00 at which time, we recommend you buy puts to make money on the way down not made on the way up.


November Soybeans Settled at $14.32.

Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 19 cents

18-month high $14.69¾ on 10 February 2022

18-month low $8.81½ on 7 August 2020

18 Month Range is $5.88¾

Tuesday’s closing price is:

37¾ cents below the 18-month high

$5.51 above the 18-month low

USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 21, world: 101

USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 27, world: 92


Seasonal Trend is up

Fundamentals are Bullish

Technical Situation sideways short term, bullish long term

Price Above Breakeven? Yes

Conclusion: Don’t Sell


This past week’s low was $14.08½, high was $14.69¾

This week's Bullish Consensus

Wright on the Market

bullish

48%

65%

bearish

20%

13%

neutral

30%

24%

no opinion

2%

0%


Soybeans Futures Continous Contract Seasonality

 

Wheat


Wheat Situation After the Close Tuesday, February 15th, 2022: We recommended pricing 2022 soft red winter wheat $7.97 in January. We have not recommended pricing July KC hard red winter wheat… way too dry and maybe war

July KC Hard Red Winter Wheat settled yesterday at $8.10½ Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 4 cents 19-month high: $8.71½ November 24th, 2021 19-month low $5.03¼ August 24th, 2020 19-month range is $3.68¼

Tuesday’s closing price is: 61 cents below the 19-month high $3.07¼ above the 19-month low 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 146, world: 135 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 122, world: 129

Seasonal Trend is down Fundamentals: Bullish due to dry soil from West Texas to Canada Technical situation is sideways to up Price Above Breakeven? Only if the yield is there, which it won’t be Conclusion: Don’t Sell

Last week’s low was $7.96½; the high was $8.45

This week's Bullish Consensus

Wright on the Market

bullish

35%

38%

bearish

32%

9%

neutral

29%

53%

no opinion

4%

0%


Wheat Seasonal 30 Years Chart


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