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Writer's pictureWright Team

Weekly Basis 04/08/2022

The Dow Jones Industrial Average settled at 34,721.12, down 97.15 points for the week.


Crude oil was at $97.80 late Friday, down $1.67 for the week.


The dollar index settled at 99.85, up 1.30 for the week.


 

Corn


July corn settled at $7.60¾, up 39 cents for the week.


Dayton, Ohio Cargill is paying $7.51 for corn, 10 cents under the July, which is a 5 cent firmer basis than a week ago. Their fall delivery basis is steady at 30 under the December futures.


Poet at Iowa Falls is paying $7.71 for corn, 10 over the July futures, which is steady with a week ago. Their fall 2022 delivery basis is steady at 30 under the December futures.


The CFTC’s Commitment of Traders Report (COT) is issued every Friday afternoon. It reports open interest as of the close of business the previous Tuesday.


The big spec funds added 4,646 contracts to their corn position to bring them net long 265,977 contracts of corn. The index funds added 8,190 contracts to their position to bring them net long 493,736 contracts of corn.


Corn open interest increased by 108,835 contracts to 2,170,866 contracts.


Eastern Corn Belt ethanol crush margin is $1.87 today compared to $2.15 last week and $1.56 a year ago. The price of corn subtracted from the value of processed products = ethanol crush margin.


 

Soybeans


July soybeans settled at $16.68, up $1.01¼ for the week.


Sidney, Ohio Cargill is paying $16.63 for beans, 5 under the July futures, which is a steady basis with a week ago. Their fall delivery basis is also steady at 25 under the November.


Iowa Falls Cargill is paying $15.68 for beans, $1.00 under the July futures, which is steady with a week ago. Their fall delivery basis is also steady at 40 under the November.


The big spec funds added 103 contracts to their position to bring them net long 93,612 contracts of beans. The index funds cut 2,844 contracts from their position to leave them net long 210,058 contracts of beans.


Soybean open interest decreased by 3,270 contracts to 979,037 contracts.


The soybean crush margin is $3.84 today, compared to $3.81 last week and $1.91 a year ago. Crush margin = value of the oil and meal extracted from a bushel of beans minus the cost of a bushel of beans.


 

Wheat


CBOT July soft red winter wheat was up 77 cents this week to settle at $10.58¼.


The local elevator is paying $10.18 for new crop wheat, 40 under the July, which is a 10 cent firmer basis than last week. King Milling in Lowell, Michigan is paying $10.59, even with the July, 7 cents firmer than a week ago.


The big spec funds cut 5,511 contracts from their soft red winter wheat (CBOT) position to leave g them net short 37,682 contracts. The index funds cut 2,760 contracts from their position to leave them net long 163,450 contracts of wheat.


Soft red winter wheat open interest increased by 8,848 contracts to 480,453 contracts.


KC July wheat was up 97 cents to settle at $11.10.


The big spec funds cut 1,595 contracts from their hard red winter wheat position to leave them net long 14,191 contracts. The index funds added 463 contracts to their position to bring them net long 63,818 contracts of hard red winter wheat.


Hard red winter (KC) wheat open interest increased by 3,955 contracts to 208,282 contracts.


September (U) 2022 spring wheat was up 64¾ cents this week to settle at $11.05½.


The Baltic Dry Bulk Index settled at 2,061, down 297 points for the week.


 

What you should have noticed:


Massive increase in open interest (OI) for corn and they were buying, but, as you can see, it was not the big specs or the index funds. So we go to the Commitment of Traders Report (COT) to see who was buying and who was selling:


Commercial traders added 20,000+ contract long and added 30,000+ contracts short.


Just to make sure you understand how commercial traders (hedgers) use the futures, when they buy cash grain, they sell futures; when they sell cash grain, they buy futures.


Spread traders added 54,000+ contracts.


Small traders added a huge (for them) 30,100+ contracts, but about the same on both sides of the market. Long position increased 13,800+ and short position increased 16,300+.


What does all this OI information mean? A heck of a lot new money is coming into the corn market, but they are pretty evenly divided bulls and bears. One can conclude there is no conclusion as to market direction based on the OI new positions!


After crude oil fell out of bed last week (down $13.24), it was down another $1.67 this week. The dollar index moved smartly higher, mostly to catch up with last week’s down move in crude. One would expect with lower crude prices with higher dollar index.


Soft red winter wheat basis firmed for the second week in a row. It is normally at its firmest level three weeks before harvest starts in your area.


Ethanol crush margin lost again, this week 28 cents. We need to keep a close eye on the crush margin. It is only 31 cents higher than a year ago.


The soybean crush is still nearly $2 better than a year ago. Do not fall for that baloney the demand for soybeans is terrible.


 

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