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Weekly Basis 03/11/2022

The Dow Jones Industrial Average settled at 32,944.19, down 670.61 points for the week.


Crude oil was at $109.46 late Friday, down $5.59 for the week.


The dollar index is at 99.10, up 0.58 for the week.


July corn settled at $7.28¾, up 7½ cents for the week.


Dayton, Ohio Cargill is paying $7.14 for corn, 15 under the July futures which is 15 cents weaker basis than last week. Their fall delivery basis is steady at 30 under the December futures.


Poet at Iowa Falls is paying $7.39 for corn, 10 over he July futures. Their fall 2022 delivery basis is steady at 30 under the December futures.


The CFTC’s Commitment of Traders Report (COT) is issued every Friday afternoon. It reports open interest as of the close of business the previous Tuesday.


The big spec funds added 30,336 contracts to their corn position to bring them net long 324,098 contracts of corn. The index funds cut 1,475 contracts from their long position to leave them net long 442,534 contracts of corn.


Corn open interest increased by 76,867 contracts to 2,054,595 contracts.


Eastern Corn Belt ethanol crush margin is $2.26 today compared to $2.20 last week and $1.57 a year ago. The price of corn subtracted from the value of processed products = ethanol crush margin.


July soybeans settled at $16.51¼, up 18¼ cents for the week.


Sidney, Ohio Cargill is paying $16.43 for beans, 8 under the July futures, which is 8 cents weaker basis than a week ago. Their fall delivery basis is steady at 25 under the November.


Iowa Falls Cargill is paying $15.51 for beans, $1.00 under the July futures, which is steady with a week ago. Their fall delivery basis is 40 under the November, 5 cents weaker than last week.


The big spec funds cut 10,778 contracts from their position to leave them net long 129,222 contracts of beans. The index funds added 4,914 contracts to their position to bring them net long 194,374 contracts of beans.


Soybean open interest decreased by 4,261 contracts to 1,003,054 contracts.


The soybean crush margin is $4.13 today, compared to $3.39 last week and $1.70 a year ago. Crush margin = value of the oil and meal extracted from a bushel of beans minus the cost of a bushel of beans.


CBOT July soft red winter wheat was down 98 cents this week to settle at $10.77¼.


The local elevator is paying $9.94 for new crop wheat and King Milling in Lowell, Michigan is paying $9.62.


The big spec funds cut 3,938 contracts from their soft red winter wheat (CBOT) position to leave them net short 27,361 contracts. The index funds added 8,772 contracts to their position to bring them net long 158,596 contracts of wheat.


Soft red winter wheat open interest increased by 10,572 contracts to 518,859 contracts.

KC July wheat was down 93½ cents to settle at $10.81.


The big spec funds added 4,125 contracts to their hard red winter wheat position to bring them net long 25,286 contracts. The index funds added 1,829 contracts to their position to bring them net long 59,497 contracts of hard red winter wheat.


Hard red winter (KC) wheat open interest decreased by19,793 contracts to 214,381 contracts.


September (U) 2022 spring wheat was down 28½ cents this week to settle at $10.34½.


The Baltic Dry Bulk Index settled at 2,704, up 600 points for the week.


What you should have noticed:

It has been a long time since the Dow was below 33,000.

Corn and beans were higher, all three wheats were lower, just like the seasonal trends predicted.

Ethanol crush improved a little and the and soybean crush improved lot.

Aside from those two things, there is no pattern, no trend, and, therefore, no clue what these markets are going to other than continue to be more unpredictable than usual.

Ocean freight was way up. Too many ships waiting for beans to be loaded in Brazil’s ports and too many ships locked in the Black Sea.

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