Weekly Ag Market News Rewind 11/1/26
The Brazilian real fell sharply against the dollar, losing 9.5% this week, as Lula won the fourth Presidential term. A weaker real lets Brazilian farmers earn more reals for the same dollar price, which encourages aggressive selling and makes Brazilian crops cheaper for buyers such as China. For $12 soybeans, Brazilian beans became $1+ cheaper than U.S. beans, which pressures soybean futures.
Brazil's soybean planting stood at 40% as of last Thursday, ahead of 36% a year ago. The first-crop corn planting reached 58%, also ahead of 55% a year ago. In Parana, excess rain is slowing planting, and a trader expects a longer crop cycle with more disease.
The U.S. Crop Progress report as of October 25 showed corn harvested at 60%, lagging to average, while soybeans were at 79%, a bit ahead of the average. Winter wheat was 76% planted and about average. Weather models began adding rain to the Corn Belt forecast, which will slow the harvest.
U.S. export inspections for the week ending October 22 were strong for soybeans at about 2.5 million tons and going up 42% year on year, but it was weak for corn and wheat, both behind last year’s pace.
However, weekly export sales were a marketing-year high for wheat at 849,800 tons, with corn at about 1.3 million tons and soybeans at about 2.6 million. China did not buy U.S. wheat that week, but Bloomberg reports that COFCO was asking about U.S. soft red winter wheat for early next year. Corn sales start to raise concern, going behind the usual pace to meet the annual goal.
China has bought 18 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans and may reach 22 to 23 million by mid-November, when Presidents Trump and Xi are expected to meet again. China's commerce ministry urged the U.S. to stop expanding restrictions on American investment in China, saying it would disrupt trade ties, which affects soybeans.
The Argentine corn crop was projected at 62 million tons by the USDA’s attache, while the official number is 55 million, with planting at 47% currently and well ahead of the average pace. About 15% of Argentina's wheat crop was hit by frost, costing roughly 1 million tons of export supply.
Russia's 2026 wheat export estimate was lowered by IKAR to 29 million tons, 17 million below last year and 11 million below USDA's projection. Russia has harvested 135 million tons of grain against a 140 million forecast, and for the first time is exporting grain through the Arctic port of Murmansk because Black Sea trade is stalled. From July through mid-October, the seven leading wheat exporters shipped about 44.7 million tons of wheat, 17% less than a year earlier.
Fuel stays expensive, but despite the diesel deal Trump announced with Russia on October 16, no American company has yet bought any of it because of sanction fears.
The USDA is finalizing a deal that could raise U.S. ethanol exports to Mexico by more than 30%, worth an additional $1.5 billion. USDA forecasts record soybean crush, up more than 5% from last year, with over half of soybean oil use going to biofuels. Bunge beat profit estimates on strong crush margins and expects vegetable oil supplies to stay tight into next year. A proposed Canadian Clean Fuels amendment would credit biofuels made from Canadian, U.S. or Mexican feedstocks, which would benefit American farmers.
The retail price index rose 0.5% in September, the largest monthly gain in six months, and 3.6% year on year, driven by a 9.2% jump in fuel and energy. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, despite the inflation being above the target.
There were 19% more Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies in 2026 than a year ago. Small trucking companies' bankruptcy is also high, sustaining a three-year spike not seen in decades. The September Agriculture Prices Received Index was up 0.5% from a year ago, while the Prices Paid Index was up 5.2%. The USDA's Harvest Fuel Relief program rates for Title I crops should be finalized within a week.
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