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Vegetable Oils Risks, World Production, Export Inspection & Rain Days 02/23/2022

Yesterday morning, USDA announced sales of:

60,000 mt of old crop hard red winter wheat to Nigeria

60,000 mt of new crop had red winter wheat to Nigeria

132,000 mt of new crop soybeans to China

 

Russia produces 80% of the world’s sunflower oil, which is one of the most important vegetable oils behind palm, soybean, and canola. If sanctions against Russia include no one buying their agricultural products (other than China, Iran and north Korea), the lack of sunflower oil would have more bullish effect on world markets than any other commodity.

 

The safrinha (second crop corn) crop in Brazil is getting planted quickly behind the combines harvesting beans with steady precipitation in northern/central Brazil. While the rain is great for the newly planted corn in the sandy soil, it is making bean harvest a bit stressful. Brazil’s soybean harvest is estimated at 33% complete by AgRural. Beans are normally 16% moisture when harvested in normal weather years. This year, the beans are 18 to 22% moisture (on good days). The extra drying time is keeping beans away from the ports longer than normal. Some ships have been waiting to load for forty days already. Most years, 15 to 25 days is the longest wait. Argentina’s beans are still in the middle of the growing season. That means the US is the only other place to buy beans on the spot market.

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