Tech Guy Soybean Comments 4/12/26

Last week, May Soybeans gapped down, then continued selling 20.0 cents to the low, however the buyers quickly stepped in and rallied price back up through the bottom of the channel. Therefore, the current evidence tells us that soybeans cannot sell off any more.

This formation is called a fakeout/shakeout - the market pushes down to take out the sell stops, then reverses back up, with the would be retail buyers frozen, not knowing what is happening. You will see a smaller red horizontal line drawn across some swing highs on the chart. The fact that soybeans closed above this line, as well as the blue line bodes well for the longs. If we can get a close above 1185.0 (upper blue line) , this will give us additional confidence for a continued rally. Current support comes in at about 1164.50 (lower channel line). Please examine the sideways channel on the 1 hour May soybean chart.

USSR:

The Soviets bought 10 million mts of wheat 30% below the cost of production, thanks to U.S. taxpayers. “The Great Train Robbery” in England in 1963 netted robbers over £2.6 million, equivalent of over £80 million today. The Soviet wheat deal of 1973 became known as “The Great Grain Robbery” as U.S. taxpayers and consumers paid for the subsidy that benefitted the Soviet Union and then had to pay 30% more for wheat flour.

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