Sep Wheat - Steady
Sep Corn - 1 to 2 Higher
Dec Corn - 2 to 3 Higher
Nov Beans - 8 to 10 Higher
I believe today's USDA crop estimates and market reaction offer an opportunity for strong buyers. As I indicated last week after the gap down in corn and beans with the tremendous trading volume that occurred on July 5th & 6th, those lows or very close to them, are most likely good for weeks.
When analyzing charts, traders and technicians have to make some basic assumptions to forecast the chart - right or wrong. For example, if last week is a good low then the buying up into Sunday night's open was an impulse (primary energy is bullish), not a correction in a downtrend.
It seems to this analyst there is very little risk premium in corn and beans at these prices - especially soybeans - 2 reports in 11 days which indicate less potential bean production. Therefore any perceived threat to that production via the weather will have the funds buying more.
The latest weekly, 2 week, monthly, and 2 month forecasts are just as bullish today as they were 4 days ago. I listen to Eric Snodgrass on YouTube - he is a fairly thorough meteorologist covering all these timeframes. Anyone who has 20 minutes and is interested can listen here to today's analysis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-l3tt6Lq7Y
First leg corrections in an uptrend (impulse) can be very deep (78% or so). From Friday's high, yesterday and todays selloff is a 72% retracement in Nov Beans and an 80% retracement in Dec Corn. I believe yesterday & today are corrective moves.
These deeper corrections occur because the bulls have not completely taken over yet - only the beginning stages. The bears will push down corrections as far as possible then the bulls give it another push higher and will attempt to eclipse Sunday night's high (the bulls and bears still have some sorting to do). I expect this buying to happen, but until the market proves it - it all seems pretty daunting to anyone concerned about lower prices.
I am moving to Sept. Crude Oil because the August options go off the board on Friday - 3 days. The 4 hour chart indicates the probable formation of a double bottom or W - again making this assumption. This W has a length of $10 with a neckline (red horizontal line on the chart) at $102. 10 +102 = 112 - projected move. Double bottoms do not have to be exact - this one is within 65 cents or so of the previous low - close enough. Please see the crude chart here: