Sep Wheat - 1 to 2 Lower
Sep Corn - Steady to 2 Lower
Dec Corn - 1 to 3 Lower
Nov Beans - Steady
As expected, Dec Corn gapped up + 20 on last nights open and traded up to 658.5 for the high because the forecast turned more bullish on Sunday. Today's correction was very normal. The trading ranges (number of cents) will continue to be wide and could even be a bit wider.
Tomorrow is the NASS estimate. I believe the updated acreage will be included. I am looking for a move up to 677 then down to the 646 area afterwards.
Eventually, a few hot and dry day's will need to be strung together for the bullishness and buying to continue. Like anything in life, promises eventually need to turn into results.
Friday's high was 626 and today's low was 1 tick higher at 626.25. Whether it closes this gap or not is subject to debate. Here's the thing - not closing the gap is pretty bullish as it continues up, but that is unfinished business. But, If it closes the gap it doesn't have to close it later on (which would mean more bullish longer term).
September Corn did close it's gap by a few ticks so it's business is complete. Therefore, the most likely next move should be for corn should be up.
Dec corn also has 2 gaps overhead which are not filled yet. Markets in general always needs to fill their gaps because a gap unfilled is unfinished business. Therefore the gaps above are targets. 1st one is 672.75 (44 cents higher) and the next one is 728.25 (99 cents higher).
November Beans also gapped up about 20 cents last night. The nearterm overhead target for Nov Beans is between 1515-1525. After that range of prices has been marked, I expect a pullback to about 1420 (yes it has to get there again first).
Nov Beans appear to be marking a familiar pattern for technicians. It is called a head & shoulders and it can be upside down like the Nov Beans chart here (standing on his head). Going from left to right, you have the left shoulder, then it rallied up to mark the left neckline - sold off to mark the head. Now it should be rallying to make the right neckline, where it should be a low risk sell then wait for about 1420 on the downside to buy at the right shoulder.
You should be able to see this pattern on this Nov Bean chart - A man on his head. - this pattern points up and if it breaks the neckline later on it projects about 1725-1730.
August Crude Oil Update: August options expire Friday. The 105 resistance proving to take more time to work itself out. Crude still has an upside target of 110-112. I need to see it trade above 105.75 soon and remain there for this upper target.
Comments