Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments for 10/26/22
Dec Wheat - 5 to 7 Higher
Dec Corn - 1 Lower
Jan Beans - Steady to 1 Lower
The US Dollar sold off sharply again, ending up at 109.510 down 1.320 for the day. This is down from Friday's high of 113.835 - a pretty significant move in 4 days! There is some possible support in the 110.000-109.500 area from the low and close on Oct 4th, so let's see if we can get some follow through selling from here the rest of the week. Whether it consolidates now or sells more tomorrow, this is a good sign for US asset bulls moving forward that a swing high appears to be in place.
Dec Wheat rallied on this news and traded up 7.50 to 842.25. It traded down to within 3.25 cents of the August 8th high of 820.75 (that was mentioned yesterday) on the low.
Dec Corn (685.50) and Jan Beans (1393) were virtually unchanged on the day, both closing within a cent of yesterday's close. Dec Soybean meal undoubtedly held beans back today, as meal sold down 6.50 closing at 409.50 near the support at 406, which is the bottom line of the triangle. see yesterday's chart
Dec Crude Oil finally broke out to the upside from the range it was trading in, closing near 88.18 at the time of this writing. The first upside target is 93.64 which is the old swing high from Oct 8-9th. Above this is the neckline at the 96 level. Check out the updated crude chart:
The Dec S&P futures rallied to a high of 3897.50 then sold off today, last trading near 3854. Just below the neckline at the 3800-3790 level should function as support. However if this area fails to hold the S&P could trade all the way down to the 3650 level - that right shoulder area. This market has been steady higher the last 3 to 4 days now - this stability (lack of volatility) is a hallmark of a bull market. Here is the updated 2 hour S&P chart:
The Elliot numbers are still on the chart - the funny thing with Elliot waves is the impulses can continue up past 5 to 6-7-8-9 or even to 13, before a significant correction occurs. Therefore if we actually have entered into a steady bull market, we would see these extended wave counts and I am leaning this way- a bigger correction to 3650 is less likely,