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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 9/6/23

Dec Wheat - Steady to Mixed

Dec Corn - Steady to 1 Lower

Nov Beans - Steady to 1 Higher

December Wheat was in high demand today as the bulls bid price higher to 609.5, up +10.25. The current bottoming formation is a flat looking inverted head & shoulders pattern.

Today's action tested the neckline at about 615.50 before backing off a few cents. With a little follow through buying, the bulls will be able to breakout higher from this pattern. Also, today was the highest close since August 23rd.

The distance from the neckline down to the head is 34 cents. Therefore, when wheat breaks through, the target will be 649, give or take 2 cents. Check out the 1 hour December Wheat chart. Support comes in from 606 to 605.

December Corn finished close to unchanged on the day today. The bulls and bears are doing a lot of jockeying back and forth. However, since last Thursday's low, corn has managed 3 higher highs and lows.

This price action is constructive for the buyers, and the next impulse wave higher (5) should be in the works. This impulse is called a leading diagonal because the first correction traded lower than the top of 1.

This means there is not an abundance of bullish energy being expressed yet. Still a lot of debating going on between the bears and bulls. Diagonals can either be the 1st or the last leg in an impulse wave.

Here is today's 1 hour December Corn chart displaying the Elliot wave count so far. Today's low of 483.25 should now function as support.

After gapping up 10 cents last night, and breaking out from a channel, November Soybeans marked a higher high on the day (pit) trading session. This is constructive for the bulls even though they don't appear to be in a hurry yet.

The day's high was printed near the open. After that, beans corrected down to the supply/demand line/top of the gap, which was supportive. You will also notice that the gap up from last night was not filled.

The traders left about 4 cents open where no buying or selling occurred. I don't think the gap will be filled, but not certain 100%. This aspect is bullish also. Therefore, the top of the gap at 1370 should hold support.

Take a look at the 1 hour November Bean chart.

Here is some more information about market gaps in general.

The October Crude Oil uptrend means serious business after breaking out last Friday. 3 consecutive closes above the breakout point is very bullish. Support is about 85.00, which is the top point of wave 1.

I believe 90.00 is very attainable above, and 93.50 is a distinct possibility. However, because we are in the number 5 impulse higher in crude, we could be looking at a bigger backfill before going much higher.

A bigger correction could take price back down to the 77.00-77.50 level. On the flipside, because crude oil traded in a sideways range for 10 months, a lot of energy was stored, so a larger correction seems less likely.

Check out the October Crude daily chart here.

I believe crude's bullishness is pumping potential energy into the corn market and this energy will be expressed, eventually.

Cornbelt Dryness Update: going on 3 weeks now with little to no water. This was on the internet. Precipitation ranks for the last 131 years. It is congruent with the water-weather precipitation maps. I am astonished with the many 131 ranks. Historic.


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