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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 9/12/23

Dec Wheat - 1 to 2 Lower


Dec Corn - Steady


Nov Beans - 1 to 2 Lower


The USDA wins for a day. From my analysis, the numbers today do not reflect the reality in the field as of September 1st and I don't believe the corn and soybean markets are going to accept the numbers either.


The bull and bear battle has been very tense of late because you have seasonals that are straight down this time of year with shrinking crops and grain charts that are trying to carve out bottom formations.


Let's give it a few days, and I believe the bear scat will be gone. On today's news, December Corn sold off to test the August 15th low at 473.5, and some decent buying occurred down there to defend this low.


Elliot wave-wise, this double bottom in corn is counted as a double a-b-c. Also, we have the supply/demand balance line (blue uptrending) increasing in price and as time has ticks on, and this is creating more up pressure or pulling force. In other words, the supply/demand will not be balanced until the corn market price reaches that line.


Check out the current December Corn chart with the new Elliot wave count. I believe today was probably a good fund buying chance.


Chart-wise, all the November Soybean market did today was tack on a D & E leg to the correction going on and sell off to almost test a significant support line in the 1338 area.


Soybeans also created a triple low point which is probably going to be very close to the final corrective low - if 1338 is tested, the buyers should defend this level. The correction stands at a 54% retracement after today's session.


Time-wise, the latest rally in beans took 15 days to complete, and this the 10th day of the correction. This marks a 2/3 ratio. Corrections often occur with 1/4, 1/2, 1/3, 2/3 or 1 ratios. Here is today's November Beans 2 hour chart.


Remembering the big picture/weekly charts, corn is resting on strong weekly support and the beans still have sizable up pressure. However, it appears that the seasonals and official balance sheets have delayed these up moves.


Here is another website talking about Elliot corrections.


Very confident with December Wheat's low today. It made a new low by a dime, bankrupting more longs, then reversed with a vengeance creating a V pattern. The close was a net gain of +2.75 on the day.


Here is the new December wheat 1 hour chart.


As expected, October Crude Oil has quickly resumed another leg of it's uptrend, closing up +1.52 to 88.81 today. Elliot wave-wise, I think crude is creating an extended 5 wave, which will be sub-divided into its own 1-2-3-4-5.


Check out today's crude daily chart and you will see what I mean - next target is 90 then 93.50.




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