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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 5/18/23

July Wheat - Steady


July Corn - Steady to 1 Higher


July Beans - 3 to 4 Lower


July Wheat has morphed from an inverted head & shoulders to a double bottom. Remember how I said it does not change the overall picture - wheat's a market trying to find a bottom/foundation from which to rally.


Keeping the bigger picture in mind, now that we got clued in to the grains clock, wheat, corn and beans are all going to take their time carving out a low - not going to happen in 1 or 2 days.


I believe it was WD Gann who stated that (I'm paraphrasing) a market down trend or big correction down will not end until all or most of the longs are bankrupted or also said, forced out of their positions - liquidated.


Turning back to July Wheat, there must have been more longs who needed to get stopped out for enough energy to be built for a more sustained rally. Let me say it this way - there were many market participants who saw the inverted head & shoulders (as I) and bought between the prices of 627 and 662.


As of today, all of those traders are under water or already gone from the market with this most recent down leg. Wheat will eventually rally again from the 600-610 area back to 665 or so. This is when we find out if enough energy was created for a breakout. Here is the current 8 hour July Wheat chart - I have drawn the "W" with blue lines so you can see it.


Corn and Soybeans will also take their time marking a good low for prices to rally again. Looking at the late spring and summertime highs of the 538 level for July Corn, I drew a red line across to the right.


This is a possible level for July Corn to exhaust to the downside. Check this out on the zoomed out July Corn chart.


The grain markets like holidays to make their turns - from up to down and down to up. This is assuredly more than a 50/50 phenomenon. Let's look at the Memorial Day timeframe for a possible time for the funds in corn and beans to have a good foundation for a summertime rally.


The 2021 rally in soybeans was 850 cents. The 2022 run was 571. 571 divided by 850 equals 67% which is close to the .62 Fibonacci ratio. Last July's bean selloff was 493 cents. The succeeding up move was 266 cents.


266 divided by 493 is close to the .50 or 50% number. The first leg of the selloff this spring was 145 cents. 145 divided by 266 is also roughly half. You get the idea. I've written these numbers all over the soybean continuation chart.


If you have the time or inclination, spend some time on the chart to see if it makes any sense. Either way, it gives us a glimpse into the structure and order of the grain markets. The time it takes for a move compared to the past and future is also organized this way with Fibonacci ratios.


Last summers selloff lasted for 1.5 months. The rally into February took 7 months. 1.5 divided by 7 is roughly the 23% Fibonacci ratio. The series goes .23, .38, .50, .62, .78, 1.00, 1.50, 2.0, etc. I like 1288, the last continuation chart swing low for a downside number in July Soybeans. If you don't mind numbers, check out the bean chart.










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