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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 4/27/23

July Wheat - 1 to 2 Higher

July Corn - Steady to 1 Higher

July Beans - 1 to 2 Higher

September Soybean Meal opened near unchanged this morning, then proceeded to sell off about 3 dollars, reversed up and closed near the open. This the definition of a bullish Doji, because it occurred after an 8 day sell off.

When Doji's get printed in this fashion, it is a good bet that the market is signaling a turn from down to up. Sep Meal also tested 2 separate support trendlines today and yesterday. You will see what I am saying on the meal daily chart.

July Chicago wheat has not verified a bottom yet. The sellers believe the party will never end. 630.50 was the close today and the next support area is an old low that was marked on July 12th, 2021 at 610.25 - Therefore, the next support is 20 cents below today's close, even though wheat may not need to sell that far. We have to wait for more data. Here is a zoomed out July Wheat chart that goes back in time to 2021.

December Corn broke lower from it's big triangle today. The bears are confidant that this indicates a possible run down to 402. This target is derived using the height of the triangle and subtracting that amount from the breakout point.

Don't panic, this is only a lesson on how to measure triangles and estimate a possible target. I believe today was more likely some selling capitulation and that this breakdown will end up being a fake out. We have to see tomorrow's trade and possibly Monday's before we can make heads or tails about what is going on.

There was a huge amount of sell stops hit today (longs getting stopped out) because price has not traded this low since January of 2022. The longer a price level below support or above resistance goes without any trading, the more stops and limit orders build up.

Today's close was 531.75 and the selling may need to test 526.25 an old low marked with red line) before it dries up. I think this is a golden opportunity for the bulls - if it reverses back up through the bottom of the triangle, a large quantity of new shorts will be trapped. You will see the price breakdown and lower support level on the daily December Corn chart.

The lower support line for July Corn is 574.25, about 7.50 cents down from today's close.

There is another argument for today's low in corn to be very near the end of the selling. We have a triple 3 on the corn continuation chart and the biggest news is that the breakaway gap from last summer was filled today - completed business. I was just last week talking to a client about this gap. Check it out.

Something else caught my attention today in the corn market. After correcting down 10 cents from the high, the May/July spread rallied back up about 6.50 cents today. If this spread makes new highs into the delivery period, this is bullish corn, overall. Most of the long players of the May/July spread have jumped long into July. Here is that 4 hour line chart.

As mentioned yesterday, beans tested the March 24th low of 1405 today on the soybean continuation chart (now July). I don't know for sure if this corrective leg is complete, but I suspect the low is here or near (minus 5 cents) and that the July bean low of 1383.75 will not need to be tested. We will watch tomorrow and Monday.

I believe yesterday's gap is an exhaustion gap, but it could be a mid-point gap and if so, 1334 would be the projection. Check out today's bean continuation chart.

Historically speaking, contract changes and first notice days in the grains can many times be associated with market turns.

June Crude Oil did indeed close it's big gap and more. Today, crude close about a buck below the top of the gap at 74.82 and the next support level are the old lows near 72.40. Check out today's June Crude 4 hour chart.


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