Tech Guy Comments 1/27/23
It took one of our actual tech guys about 5 minutes to fix the internet issue. Thanks Eugene! Nick and Eugene make this entire process possible - all of the emails, the website, etc.
We knew that Argentina was dryer this year than last, but when you compare the crop conditions data of this year to last year side by side, it really brings the point home.
The following data data is from the soybean & corn advisor website. It is a comparison of Argentine soybean crop conditions on the same date this year compared to last. Here is a link to it if you want more South American news: https://www.soybeansandcorn.com/articles/
From Jan 25th, 2022: last year
The soybeans are rated 27% poor/very poor, 43% fair, and 30% good/excellent. The good/excellent percentage is down 1 point from the prior week. The soil moisture for soybeans is rated at 52% short/very short and 48% favorable/optimum. The favorable/optimum percentage is up 8 points from the prior week
This year: The condition of the soybean crop is rated 60% poor/very poor, 37% fair, and 3% good/excellent. The good/excellent percentage is down 1% from the prior week. The soil moisture for the soybeans is rated 70% short/very short and 30% favorable/optimum. The favorable/optimum percentage is down 4% from the prior week.
The poor/very poor conditions are 33% greater this year in Argentina and the good/excellent conditions number is 30% last year to 3% this year - a 27% decline. I was shocked to see these numbers knowing how bad last years soybeans were in Argentina.
I focus 99% of my attention on the charts, but occasionally some fundamental data leaps off the page - this is one of those times. I doubt that this information has been fully considered by the soybean market. In other words, there has been a few bushels knocked off the official Argentine estimate, but probably not to this magnitude.
The probability of more risk premium coming into the soybean prices is very good, especially in light of this crop condition yearly comparison - another argument for soybean's bullish story.
We had a question from one of our clients specifically for me. Here is the question.
Question for the tech guy - what will it take for March corn to break the neckline going up? When is this estimated to happen? Should we expect another bounce off the neckline or a punch through soon?
I expect March Corn to push through the neckline on the current up leg. It will either oscillate around the neckline then find support on it like crude oil did, or move through it and find support on it. This should occur any day now.
Here is what the March Crude Oil looks like - This is in the ballpark of what I see with March Corn.
Here is the updated March Corn chart as of 9:35 CST today.