Yesterday, urea prices from Russia were up $100+, Egyption urea traded $125 higher and NOLA cash urea traded to $570, up $85 than the previous day as the world's urea suppliers prepared for India's urea urea tender. India imports more urea than any country... about 1.5 million mt per year.
Production estimates are such that the Brazilian bean crop will certainly be less 135 million mt and possibly down to 125 to 130. USDA was at 139 million in its January report. While Brazil will be loading ships as fast as possible in the months during and after harvest, they will run out of beans sooner than normal. That means US soybean exports will be very strong the last four months of 2022 and that is why that elevator in Minnesota has a fall delivery basis of 30 under the November (-30X) instead of the normal -60X to -120X. Be patient on selling a lot of new crop beans at least until we know how poor the SA crop really is.
Kevin Duling is a futures broker and a grain market advisor who specializes in wheat. He has been bullish wheat for three years and has been right the past 2 years. He is looking at $8.50 futures for new crop for soft and hard wheat.