Highlights
The U.S. budget deficit for fiscal 2022 (ended September 30, 2022) was half of what it was a year ago. It is the biggest drop in history. The shortfall declined to $1.375 trillion, compared to the 2021 COVID deficit of $2.776 trillion. Tax revenue, despite Trump’s reduced tax rate, was easily the highest one-year total on record. The deficit decline would have been greater had it not been for the Biden administration’s student loan forgiveness program.
When that news came out, the dollar index was sharply higher and then it moved sharply lower, providing a whip-saw effect on grain prices and crude oil. One has to be impressed with Friday’s settlements given we have “no demand” and it was a Friday before a harvest weekend with November options expiring. After a trading range of 2.24 points Friday, the Dollar Index settled down 1.0 for the day.
Rain is expected in the very dry hard red winter wheat areas of the Midwest, but below normal rainfall expected for a few weeks after perhaps as much as an inch of rain.
Natural gas prices in Europe are now low enough that nitrogen fertilizer manufacturers can make a profit on urea, ammonia and ammonium nitrate.