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Hay, Put Options, Rain Days Update 04/17/2022


The March Soybean NOPA crush was 181.8 million bushels, about as expected and 3.8 million bushels more than a year ago. The soybean crush margin in March averaged $1.93 per bushel more than a year ago.

Dale Leslein: I run one of the largest hay auctions in the Midwest, prices have been very depressed, but 3 weeks ago the market took off. Buyers from all over and when I asked these people, many I have not seen in years, the majority say the same thing,

"We're gonna buy all our hay next year and plant corn and beans.”

For the last 22 years I have tracked the used equipment prices of the Brillion sure stand seeder and the John Deere 8300 and 450 grain drills and the Case IH 5100 and 5300 drills all of which are used for seeding alfalfa. When prices are high lots of alfalfa is seeded. Since August, prices have dropped by an average of 31% in an era of skyrocketing used equipment to see these prices dropping is quite alarming, Sure looks like to me hay acres are gonna get flipped into row crops. Also I was in the seed business for 26 years, got tired of it 5 years ago and quit, this past week, I got a call from a major seed co offering me 1200 bags of alfalfa seed for $95 that retails for $280. Farmers vote with their checkbooks and it sure looks like hay is not in their plans for 2022.


Brazil’s wheat seeded area is expected to be the largest in 36 years at 8.9 million acres (3.6 million hectares). That is 30% more than last year, according to SAFRAS & Mercado, the main agribusiness consultancy in Latin America.

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