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About Soybeans, Put Options, Markets & Rain Days Update 5/18/22

Highlights


The Canadian Premier of Alberta said yesterday afternoon that his province could add more than a million barrels per day for US refineries over the next two years. That turned crude oil lower yesterday after trading higher than any time since 2008 except for three days in March 2022. Last evening, the corn and bean basis at the Gulf was slightly weaker except soybeans for September and October, which was a bit firmer. Shanghai, the largest city in China and the primary port for container ships, has had three consecutive days with no new COVID cases outside quarantine zones, which had been the standard needed to begin to open the city. However, residents were told they have to remain in confinement for an unspecified while before resuming more normal life. They are not happy. CBOT wheat has gained 15% the past trading sessions and reached a price only attained five times before according to Karen Braun, Reuters Global AG Reporter.


 

About Soybeans


Total soybean production of the recently harvested crop in South America (Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay) is more than 32 million mt lower than USDA’s expectations in December. That’s is 1.176 billion bushels, or a fourth of US soybean production. To put it into a better perspective, the old crop US carryover on August 31st this year is expected to be 235 million bushels, enough to meet the needs of the US domestic and export needs for just 19 days. The US domestic new crop soybean carryover is just 25 days and that will be reduced when the USDA reports ~2 million fewer acres of beans on the USDA Actual Planted Acres Report on June 30th.


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