BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits On Friday’s S&D, USDA revised world corn production lower by 2.33 mil mt as production was lowered for Russia, South Africa, Ukraine and Mexico and usage was increased 1.48 mil. mt.  An increase to the carryin of 1.37 mil mt. for the current marketing year offset some of lower corn production and higher usage, resulting in world corn carryout down 2.43 mil. mts to 319.63 mil. mts, which is a 5 year high. Average price expected to be paid to farmers for 2023 crop corn

Tidbits, S&D, Soybeans While the current marketing year S&D information presented in yesterday’s monthly report was a non-event, the brain-trust at USDA is really digging deep into the records to explain why they are finding fewer soybeans in the world than their numbers have been showing for the past two years.   The USDA significantly reduced the world carryover for the 2021-22 crop marketing year. After copying the numbers from the USDA website, we thought we had made a mi

The numbers were: Neutral Corn Neutral Beans Neutral Wheat 20 Minutes after the report: May corn -1 May beans +3 July CBOT wheat +3.75...

Below is the projected S&D (with yields) for Grain & Beans. Here is the link to the full report for oilseeds and grains:...

Highlights Yesterday morning, CHS’s comments started with this paragraph: "The USDA released their long-term projections yesterday. The market seems to be reacting to the yield projections for all three of our major commodities."   Our first thought was 183.5 bushels of corn per acre yield in 2024 is not reasonable as CHS reported it, even though the market expects negative numbers from USDA this morning. Apparently, CHS used last year's report for their commentary by mistake

S&D Highlights USDA made slight reductions to the demand side for 2023-24 marketing year for corn, beans and wheat, which increased soybeans carryover by 4 days use to 28 days and wheat by 3 days use to 129 days. CONAB reduced their total corn crop by 3.9 million mts to 113.7 million, the second safrinha crop was estimated 3.1 million lower to 88.1 million. Soybeans were updated to 149.4 million metric tons, 5.87 million lower from last month.

The numbers were: Negative Corn Bearish Beans Neutral Wheat Settlements: March corn -1¢ March beans +4.5¢ March CBOT wheat -13.5¢ March...

Highlights Iran captured an oil tanker off the coast of Oman. A few months ago, a shipload of Iranian oil was seized over US sanctions related to Tehran’s nuclear program. Iran is getting closer to the fighting war. The USA launched more strikes this morning on Yemen's Houthi rebels. Tidbits Hertz will sell 20,000 EVs in its fleet and reinvest in gas-powered cars. That is a victory for ethanol.   For the full 12 months of 2023 USA consumer inflation was 3.4%, more than doubl

The numbers are: Bearish Corn Negative Beans Neutral Wheat 29 Minutes after Report was released: March corn -13 January beans -30 March...

Market Comment The USDA will issue its monthly S&D, Quarterly Grains Stocks, final 2023 Crop Production and Actual Planted Acres of Winter Wheat Reports Friday, January 12th.   The market is going to expect an increase in corn and beans yields with possible small increases in demand for corn and beans. The market will not expect a significant decline in the South American crops. USDA simply does not make significant production changes in January for South Hemisphere crops, no

Highlights On yesterday’s S&D, the USDA:   Reduced Brazil’s bean crop by 2 mil mts to 161 million mts. Soybean and corn production in Argentina and Paraguay were left unchanged.   Increased China’s soybean imports for this marketing year by 2 mil mts to 102 mil. mts. For the marketing year that ended August 31st, USDA says China imported 100.85 mil mts. It was the first year China imported 100 mil. mts.     Increased Ukraine’s corn production by a million mts to 30.5 million

The numbers are: Neutral corn A tad negative beans Friendly wheat 19 Minutes After Report was released: March corn -2 January beans 2 1/4...

Farmer's Feedback We received this from BJ, a client, early Thursday morning: "The basis situation in NE Iowa is getting fun to watch. I have never seen basis this good in November. Harvest is about 99% done, so very little will be delivered straight out of the field. Today Valero in Charles City, IA sent out a flash bid of $5.20 cash. That is $0.44 over futures! Homeland Energy in Lawler, IA is +.10, now accepts corn up to 19% moisture, and is staying open late and on weeke

The numbers are: Bearish corn Do not panic sell anything. The worst is over. Negative beans Neutral Wheat 27 Minutes After Report was...

Highlights Now that the October USDA report has been issued, we can be quite confident that the futures have made their lows for the year. Soybeans did it on May 31st and corn did it on September 19th. The USDA has lowered yields for both beans and corn four consecutive months. We will get a November production update (yield, harvested acres) from USDA, but there will be no USA production information on the December S&D, just demand changes for USA crops; the USDA will updat

The numbers are: Friendly corn Bullish beans Neutral Wheat 30 Minutes After Report was released: December corn +8 November beans +40...

Highlights USDA issues an Export Inspections Report the first business day of every week which reports the amounts of commodities loaded on a ship, train, or truck, ready to leave the USA. The soybean export inspections were the market shocker yesterday morning when reported to be 1.643 million mts, double the high end of the range of expectations. That was later corrected to 1.036 million mts. While the reduction was disappointing, there were still way more beans exported t

The 2022 corn for grain production is revised down 15 mil bu. Corn harvested for grain is revised to 79.1 million acres, down 100,000...

Highlights Dr. Cordonnier cut his US corn yield estimate by 1.5 bu to 171.5 and reduced bean yields by a half bushel to 49.0. The meteorological firm, Climatempo, is calling for temps over 100 degrees across central Brazil (where 85% of their beans are grown) as the country continues to struggle with hot and dry conditions during planting. Producers are being warned by agronomists to wait on planting beans until adequate moisture arrives to ensure germination and stand estab

Crop Feedback Jake has a marketing service in Wahpeton, North Dakota. He sent this information Sunday afternoon: "Hello Roger, I have received quite a few yield results from my customers. In general, we look for 45 - 50 bushel yields on soybeans as an across the farm average. Our yields so far have been anywhere from 28 - 48. I would say in general we are 5 bushel lower than most years. We are about 50% done with harvest with just the later beans left. I am projecting a d