BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights If you have soft red winter wheat to deliver this summer, you need to set the basis about three weeks before harvest starts in your area. Historically, that is when the basis is as firm as it will get.     Soft red winter July wheat ended Friday at a one month low of $6.27½. All SRW wheat trading volume was a one month high of 280,935 contracts, with July seeing a heavy 131,164 contracts traded. Heavy trading volume on a down day for prices is an indication of stro

Highlights USDA changes for South America: Argentina’s bean crop unchanged at 50 million mts. Brazil’s bean crop was reduced by 1 million mts to 154, about 6 to 7 million higher than most estimates. Reduced Argentina’s corn crop 2 million mts to 53, which is 6 to 10 million mts above most estimates. Reduced Brazil’s corn crop by 2 million mts to 122 million mts, 9 million mts above CONAB, which will give their May S&D numbers on Monday. Increased Ukraine’s 2023 corn crop by 1

The numbers were: Friendly Corn and Wheat Neutral to Negative Soybeans 27 Minutes after the report: July corn +9 July beans +5 July CBOT...

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported inflation at the wholesale level in March was up 0.2%; the market was expecting the Producer Price Index (PPI) to be up 0.3%. However, there is a credibility problem.   What would you say gasoline prices did in March? Yep, the American Automobile Association (Triple A) reported the price of gasoline in March increased 6.3%. However, the gasoline component of the government’s PPI reported the "seasonally adj

The numbers were: Negative Corn Negative Beans Neutral Wheat 18 Minutes after the report: May corn -3 May beans -5 July CBOT wheat -7 July KC wheat -7 Sept Spring wheat -6 Bottom line, in the past 24 hours, respected agencies reduced South American corn production by 8.299 mil. mts (326.7 mil. bushels).   Details:   CONAB (Brazil’s USDA) released its monthly update earlier this morning. It put Brazil's safrinha corn production at 85.6 mil mts., down 16.75 mil mts from last ye

Market Comment The USDA will issue its April S&D today at 10 AM Mountain time. Given the March inventory of corn, we already know feed use this past winter was stronger than USDA expected. We already know from weekly numbers that the corn for ethanol crush and corn exports are running stronger than USDA projected for the year. But will USDA reduce the corn carryover below 2 billion bushels, as they should, based on the numbers we already know? Probably not.   The average esti

Tidbits On Friday’s S&D, USDA revised world corn production lower by 2.33 mil mt as production was lowered for Russia, South Africa, Ukraine and Mexico and usage was increased 1.48 mil. mt.  An increase to the carryin of 1.37 mil mt. for the current marketing year offset some of lower corn production and higher usage, resulting in world corn carryout down 2.43 mil. mts to 319.63 mil. mts, which is a 5 year high. Average price expected to be paid to farmers for 2023 crop corn

Tidbits, S&D, Soybeans While the current marketing year S&D information presented in yesterday’s monthly report was a non-event, the brain-trust at USDA is really digging deep into the records to explain why they are finding fewer soybeans in the world than their numbers have been showing for the past two years.   The USDA significantly reduced the world carryover for the 2021-22 crop marketing year. After copying the numbers from the USDA website, we thought we had made a mi

The numbers were: Neutral Corn Neutral Beans Neutral Wheat 20 Minutes after the report: May corn -1 May beans +3 July CBOT wheat +3.75...

Below is the projected S&D (with yields) for Grain & Beans. Here is the link to the full report for oilseeds and grains:...

Highlights Yesterday morning, CHS’s comments started with this paragraph: "The USDA released their long-term projections yesterday. The market seems to be reacting to the yield projections for all three of our major commodities."   Our first thought was 183.5 bushels of corn per acre yield in 2024 is not reasonable as CHS reported it, even though the market expects negative numbers from USDA this morning. Apparently, CHS used last year's report for their commentary by mistake

S&D Highlights USDA made slight reductions to the demand side for 2023-24 marketing year for corn, beans and wheat, which increased soybeans carryover by 4 days use to 28 days and wheat by 3 days use to 129 days. CONAB reduced their total corn crop by 3.9 million mts to 113.7 million, the second safrinha crop was estimated 3.1 million lower to 88.1 million. Soybeans were updated to 149.4 million metric tons, 5.87 million lower from last month.

The numbers were: Negative Corn Bearish Beans Neutral Wheat Settlements: March corn -1¢ March beans +4.5¢ March CBOT wheat -13.5¢ March...

Highlights Iran captured an oil tanker off the coast of Oman. A few months ago, a shipload of Iranian oil was seized over US sanctions related to Tehran’s nuclear program. Iran is getting closer to the fighting war. The USA launched more strikes this morning on Yemen's Houthi rebels. Tidbits Hertz will sell 20,000 EVs in its fleet and reinvest in gas-powered cars. That is a victory for ethanol.   For the full 12 months of 2023 USA consumer inflation was 3.4%, more than doubl

The numbers are: Bearish Corn Negative Beans Neutral Wheat 29 Minutes after Report was released: March corn -13 January beans -30 March...

Market Comment The USDA will issue its monthly S&D, Quarterly Grains Stocks, final 2023 Crop Production and Actual Planted Acres of Winter Wheat Reports Friday, January 12th.   The market is going to expect an increase in corn and beans yields with possible small increases in demand for corn and beans. The market will not expect a significant decline in the South American crops. USDA simply does not make significant production changes in January for South Hemisphere crops, no

Highlights On yesterday’s S&D, the USDA:   Reduced Brazil’s bean crop by 2 mil mts to 161 million mts. Soybean and corn production in Argentina and Paraguay were left unchanged.   Increased China’s soybean imports for this marketing year by 2 mil mts to 102 mil. mts. For the marketing year that ended August 31st, USDA says China imported 100.85 mil mts. It was the first year China imported 100 mil. mts.     Increased Ukraine’s corn production by a million mts to 30.5 million

The numbers are: Neutral corn A tad negative beans Friendly wheat 19 Minutes After Report was released: March corn -2 January beans 2 1/4...

Farmer's Feedback We received this from BJ, a client, early Thursday morning: "The basis situation in NE Iowa is getting fun to watch. I have never seen basis this good in November. Harvest is about 99% done, so very little will be delivered straight out of the field. Today Valero in Charles City, IA sent out a flash bid of $5.20 cash. That is $0.44 over futures! Homeland Energy in Lawler, IA is +.10, now accepts corn up to 19% moisture, and is staying open late and on weeke

The numbers are: Bearish corn Do not panic sell anything. The worst is over. Negative beans Neutral Wheat 27 Minutes After Report was...