BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights DTN lead analyst, Todd Hultman, said on August 12 during a webinar about S&D report: “Speculators in the corn market have been encouraged  to hold onto their short positions by the Federal Reserve Board, which is trying to keep prices in check by increasing interest rates… You would think we’re getting down to the lows here somewhere, but technically of course we’re not seeing any signs of that just yet.” Here is Sean Pratt’s summary  for the webinar.   The Consume

Highlights Stock markets around the world rebounded Tuesday from Monday’s terrible losses led by Japanese stocks. After losing 12% on Monday, stocks rallied 10.23% on Tuesday for their third biggest daily gain on record.   The Secretary General of the Shiite Hezbollah said yesterday: "Strikes against Israel are being prepared from Iran, Yemen and Lebanon, and they will certainly be carried out. Our joint response will be strong, sensitive and effective. We did not seek milita

Highlights Planting progress: The Nation’s corn crop is 49% planted; the 5-year average is 54%. Soybeans are 35% planted; the 5-year average of 34%. Spring wheat is 61% planted; the 5-year average of 48%. Cotton is 33% planted; the 5-year average of 31%. Sorghum is 26% planted; the 5-year average of 26%. Rice is 84% planted; the 5-year average of 72%. Sugar beets are 92% planted; the 5-year average of 65%.   Winter wheat crop condition is the same as a week ago at 50% good/ex

Tidbits Saturday and Sunday cease fire talks between Hamas and Israel ended with Hamas demanding Israel end the war first and then Hamas will release hostages. Israel said that will never happen. Supposedly they will meet again on Tuesday.      Rio Grande do Sul, the second largest soybean producing state in Brazil, with the weekend rains, is now experiencing its worst flooding since 1941. About half the soybeans are still in the field.   Argentina is slashing import taxes on

Highlights The dollar index traded to 106.57 on Tuesday. Last Friday, the dollar index was at 104.30. In the world of exchange rates and commodity prices, that 2.27 point move in two days is a minor earthquake and it did damage to your operation.   The first week of January, the dollar index was 101.38 and it took 4.85 Brazilian Real to buy a US dollar. If soybeans were $11 a bushel, a Brazilian farmer would be paid 53.35 Reals per bushel. On April 9th, the same $11 beans wou

Highlights Corn planting intentions were 1.74 million less acres than the market expected. Corn inventory on March first were 80 million bushels less than expected. Are those numbers a decisive game changer for the corn price outlook? Yes.     If the market had priced in the expected acres and inventory, which logically, it had, we can immediately take 80 million bushels off the old crop carryout for the past three months due to strong feed use and take another 160 million of

Highlights The weather forecast in South America was better for crops in some areas and worse in others, but the bottom line is the traders wanted to reduce their long positions with the USDA reports coming on Thursday that will impact old crop prices with the inventory report and new crop prices with the acreage report. We do not do any grain marketing before the report. We can see that the acres may be a bit bearish corn and inventory may be friendly for corn and beans. In

Tidbits Crop input purchases in the USA accelerated the past week as the dry weather has allowed field work. That is the main reason urea prices are up to $437 per ton versus $331 FOB NOLA in early January. This past week, DAP traded above $650 per ton FOB NOLA.   Analysts are saying the price of nitrogen fertilizers in the USA have gone inverted, meaning N bought now is higher priced than N bought 30 days from now and cheaper yet 60 days from now.      With increased prices

Highlights In an interview Friday, NATO’s chief has given Ukraine permission to strike targets inside of Russia with soon-to-be-delivered F-16 jets.    In his Tucker Carlson interview, Vladimir Putin warned that if US-made F-16 jets strike Russia, Ukraine may no longer be Russia’s only target. Tidbits Jason Britt of Central State Commodities did the math for us on weekly export sales: Soybean sales 2.1 mil bu.; needed each week to meet USDA estimate, 8.4 mb. Corn sales 32.3 m

Highlights 247AG reported Sunday afternoon: "Brazilian grain exporters lobby Anec warned it was concerned about a rise in farmer bankruptcy filings in the country, which may affect delivery of committed grains throughout the season and may also hamper traders' ability to complete their export programs."   Market Adviser, Kevin Duling pointed out in his weekly letter that old and new Soft Red Winter wheat has not made a new low since November 27th and hard red winter and sprin

Highlights Thursday's USDA reports will most likely be a non-event. We do not recommend any market moves before the report.   China's stock market indexes made 5-year lows last week. The government and the Bank of China responded with massive injections of easy money, restrictions on short selling, and some regulatory changes. Yesterday, China’s two major stock indexes jumped more than 3% for their biggest gains in almost two years.   AgRural reported Brazil had harvested 16%

Tidbits Two Ukrainian attack drones struck the largest oil refinery in southern Russia yesterday. Local authorities in Russia said that a fire had been extinguished at the Volgograd refinery following a drone attack. Oil producer Lukoil said the plant was working as normal.   Kory Melby is a former Minnesota farmer who immigrated to Brazil about 24 years ago and became a consultant for everything related to agriculture. Roger first met Kory in February 2003 and has come to re

Highlights Three American soldiers were killed Sunday and 34 were wounded in a drone strike against the U.S. military outpost Tower 22 in Jordan, which is the country bordering the east side of Israel.  Two Navy Seals died in rough seas earlier this month trying to board a ship suspected of carrying weapons from Iran to Yemen.   U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 6% to a one-week high Thursday on forecasts for higher demand in two weeks when the weather turns slightly cool

Tidbits Yesterday morning, USDA reported the sale of 126,700 mts of old crop corn to Mexico.   NOPA December crush was a record at 193.5 mil bu. Previous record was October and November close to it. Soy oil stocks of 1.36 bil lbs were above expectations.   Aprosoja, an association representing thousands of grain farmers in Brazil, projects soybeans production of 135 million metric tons. Aprosoja Brasil's estimate is lower than private forecasters' projections of production th

Highlights Maersk is the world second largest ocean container shipper. Once again, Maersk is diverting all container vessels from the Red Sea route to the much longer route around South Africa's Cape of Good Hope, resulting in a huge increase of the cost of shipping. Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen continue to attack cargo vessels in the region to show their support for Hamas.   World power has always been decided by who controlled the world’s trade routes. That is w

Highlights The majority of the weather forecasts predict good rains in the dry soybean areas of Brazil beginning as soon as Sunday. Here is the wettest example: "Widespread rainfall over the past five days across the Brazilian soy belt. Models have accurately predicted relief for crops. GFS calls for high precip volumes coming in the next 10 days, with over 10 inches for Mato Grosso, major producing state. Cooling temperatures are maintaining adequate soil moisture for crops

Highlights Early yesterday morning there was a hint that Brazil’s weather forecast beginning January 1st was turning a bit drier. Yesterday morning, BAM Weather Guy Kirk Hinz posted on Twitter: "Going Drier vs. Data into Jan - making my latest SA ag weather video public today - give it a watch/listen! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JyutNKgQsVQ   Once again, data is wet for Central Brazil for the month ahead, once again the atmospheric ingredients do not agree.   I think Jan

Highlights Mexico is the leading export destination for US corn, receiving from 21% to 32% of US corn exported annually in recent years. US corn export sales to Mexico are at a near record pace.   There are six railroad border crossings from the USA to Mexico. Two of them have been closed since 8 AM Monday as the Biden Administration pulled border personnel working the crossings to assist with the illegals crossing in the USA. However, others say the two border crossing point

Highlights During times of normal ocean trade and normal weather, 38 to 40 vessels would transit the Panama Canal every day. Due to dry weather, that number was reduced to 32 ships in August. Further reductions have since been imposed. The Canal Authority stated in October that the daily passages through the Canal would be reduced in mid-January to 18 vessels per day.   The problem is all the locks are gravity filled with fresh water from Gatun Lake. About 52 million gallons

Highlights The Panama Canal expects to maintain restrictions on daily vessel transit and maximum draft for at least 10 more months due to low water levels. This situation will make the Mississippi River Inland Waterway System less competitive, but will boost demand for rail shipments from the Upper Midwest to the PNW ports. In a move to ease a bottleneck that surpassed 160 vessels earlier this month, the Canal’s authority recently opened two more passage slots per day for no