BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

At 10 AM Mountain Time today the USDA will issue its November S&D.  On Wednesday, an EPA auditor gave an agricultural commercial chemical applicator, who does business with one of our clients, a set of new regulations that went into effect Wednesday. The applicator told our client these new regulations will require some serious limitations in 2025. The limited information our client has is that the new regulations have something to do with the Endangered Species Act. If any o

Highlights Andy sent us river depth information from the Soy Transportation Coalition. "For each foot of draft reduction on the river, an individual barge is loaded with 7,000 fewer bushels (200 tons) of soybeans. In certain areas of the river, we are seeing several feet of draft restrictions due to low water. In addition, the lack of water will narrow the shipping channel, which limits the number of barges that can be attached together to form one single flotilla or tow. Dep

Highlights At 11 AM Central Time today, the USDA will issue its Quarterly Grain Stocks Report. It will show the inventory of all commodities as of September first and there could be some production and consumption adjustments made for any of the past three marketing years. In other words, there could be some big surprises. We expect some serious long futures profit-taking and cash selling of corn and beans before the report comes out.    The ten-day weather forecast showed ra

Tidbits Yesterday, China announced more stimulus measures to try to reach a 2024 economic growth target of 5%. China added ~$284 billion equivalent in bonds and cut bank reserve requirement ratios by 50 basis points. The three-month interest rate was down to 1.5%, and their one-year interest rate is now at 2%. By comparison, the one-year interest rate here in the U.S. for government one year T-Bills is at 3.96%.   Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 20,000 mts o

Highlights The US Congress did pass a temporary funding bill yesterday to keep the US government operating until December 20. It is assumed President Biden will sign it since all Democrats in the Congress voted for it.   Grain workers at Canada’s biggest grain loading port did go on strike Tuesday. Vancouver port handled about 52% of grain produced in Canada last year.   About 45,000 dockworkers at every major eastern and Gulf coast port are scheduled to strike midnight 30 Se

Highlights Oil prices posted a second weekly gain as bullish sentiment builds and the prospect of a prolonged price rally becomes increasingly likely according to oilprice.com  analysts.   The fact that the US Federal Reserve has at last initiated a new cycle of monetary easing should have prompted a stronger market response. With a weaker dollar and an improved macro risk outlook, next week could see further upside as crude oil inventories in the United States have dropped t

Highlights Canada’s government has ordered Canada’s railways and workers’ union to get back to work on Friday. Union members went to work yesterday, but it will take several days to get back up and running smoothly.   The BNSF has halted grain shuttle trains to Mexico for 3 days due to ongoing congestion and service interruptions that have resulted in equipment being held in Mexico, according to BNSF and USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service. This could end up being a huge hi

Highlights Weekend weather was hotter and much drier than predicted in the Eastern Corn Belt where there is no subsoil moisture. West Central Ohio, the past two months, has received very light widely scattered showers 2 to 4 times a week, just enough to keep the corn and beans looking pretty good, but not nearly enough to keep the crops looking good if those light, scattered showers do not fall for 5 days.    The Washington Post reported yesterday Ukraine and Russia were set

Highlights NOPA members crushed 182.881 million bushels of soybean in July, which was 442,400 bushels more than the market expected. That was 5.5% more than last year’s record large July crush. Better yet, oil stocks were 1.499 billion pounds, which was 109 million fewer pounds than the market expected.   Soybean oil and meal basis in Brazil is sharply higher this week. The resulting improving crush margins for the beans makes Brazil’s small bean supplies for export smaller y

Highlights DTN lead analyst, Todd Hultman, said on August 12 during a webinar about S&D report: “Speculators in the corn market have been encouraged  to hold onto their short positions by the Federal Reserve Board, which is trying to keep prices in check by increasing interest rates… You would think we’re getting down to the lows here somewhere, but technically of course we’re not seeing any signs of that just yet.” Here is Sean Pratt’s summary  for the webinar.   The Consume

Highlights Stock markets around the world rebounded Tuesday from Monday’s terrible losses led by Japanese stocks. After losing 12% on Monday, stocks rallied 10.23% on Tuesday for their third biggest daily gain on record.   The Secretary General of the Shiite Hezbollah said yesterday: "Strikes against Israel are being prepared from Iran, Yemen and Lebanon, and they will certainly be carried out. Our joint response will be strong, sensitive and effective. We did not seek milita

Highlights Planting progress: The Nation’s corn crop is 49% planted; the 5-year average is 54%. Soybeans are 35% planted; the 5-year average of 34%. Spring wheat is 61% planted; the 5-year average of 48%. Cotton is 33% planted; the 5-year average of 31%. Sorghum is 26% planted; the 5-year average of 26%. Rice is 84% planted; the 5-year average of 72%. Sugar beets are 92% planted; the 5-year average of 65%.   Winter wheat crop condition is the same as a week ago at 50% good/ex

Tidbits Saturday and Sunday cease fire talks between Hamas and Israel ended with Hamas demanding Israel end the war first and then Hamas will release hostages. Israel said that will never happen. Supposedly they will meet again on Tuesday.      Rio Grande do Sul, the second largest soybean producing state in Brazil, with the weekend rains, is now experiencing its worst flooding since 1941. About half the soybeans are still in the field.   Argentina is slashing import taxes on

Highlights The dollar index traded to 106.57 on Tuesday. Last Friday, the dollar index was at 104.30. In the world of exchange rates and commodity prices, that 2.27 point move in two days is a minor earthquake and it did damage to your operation.   The first week of January, the dollar index was 101.38 and it took 4.85 Brazilian Real to buy a US dollar. If soybeans were $11 a bushel, a Brazilian farmer would be paid 53.35 Reals per bushel. On April 9th, the same $11 beans wou

Highlights Corn planting intentions were 1.74 million less acres than the market expected. Corn inventory on March first were 80 million bushels less than expected. Are those numbers a decisive game changer for the corn price outlook? Yes.     If the market had priced in the expected acres and inventory, which logically, it had, we can immediately take 80 million bushels off the old crop carryout for the past three months due to strong feed use and take another 160 million of

Highlights The weather forecast in South America was better for crops in some areas and worse in others, but the bottom line is the traders wanted to reduce their long positions with the USDA reports coming on Thursday that will impact old crop prices with the inventory report and new crop prices with the acreage report. We do not do any grain marketing before the report. We can see that the acres may be a bit bearish corn and inventory may be friendly for corn and beans. In

Tidbits Crop input purchases in the USA accelerated the past week as the dry weather has allowed field work. That is the main reason urea prices are up to $437 per ton versus $331 FOB NOLA in early January. This past week, DAP traded above $650 per ton FOB NOLA.   Analysts are saying the price of nitrogen fertilizers in the USA have gone inverted, meaning N bought now is higher priced than N bought 30 days from now and cheaper yet 60 days from now.      With increased prices

Highlights In an interview Friday, NATO’s chief has given Ukraine permission to strike targets inside of Russia with soon-to-be-delivered F-16 jets.    In his Tucker Carlson interview, Vladimir Putin warned that if US-made F-16 jets strike Russia, Ukraine may no longer be Russia’s only target. Tidbits Jason Britt of Central State Commodities did the math for us on weekly export sales: Soybean sales 2.1 mil bu.; needed each week to meet USDA estimate, 8.4 mb. Corn sales 32.3 m

Highlights 247AG reported Sunday afternoon: "Brazilian grain exporters lobby Anec warned it was concerned about a rise in farmer bankruptcy filings in the country, which may affect delivery of committed grains throughout the season and may also hamper traders' ability to complete their export programs."   Market Adviser, Kevin Duling pointed out in his weekly letter that old and new Soft Red Winter wheat has not made a new low since November 27th and hard red winter and sprin

Highlights Thursday's USDA reports will most likely be a non-event. We do not recommend any market moves before the report.   China's stock market indexes made 5-year lows last week. The government and the Bank of China responded with massive injections of easy money, restrictions on short selling, and some regulatory changes. Yesterday, China’s two major stock indexes jumped more than 3% for their biggest gains in almost two years.   AgRural reported Brazil had harvested 16%