BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Brazil:  IMEA is a professional organization for Mato Grosso farmers, Brazil’s leading agricultural state. IMEA reported that cotton harvest for the state is 55.2% complete. Last year at this time, cotton harvest was 74.2% complete and the five years average is 78.6%. Farmers want to plant soybeans in those cotton fields in two weeks!   In Brazil, the second corn crop harvest is well underway, but the weather is predicted to turn wet and cold the first week of Septemb

Tidbits Pro Farmer published Crop Tour results. We will analyze the tour results tomorrow. Economy:  On Thursday, S&P Global reported the U.S. August S&P manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) unexpectedly rose 4.5 points to a three-year high of 53.3, better than expectations of a decline to 49.7.  Also, the Eurozone August S&P manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose 0.7 to a 3-year high of 50.5, stronger than expectations of a decline to 49.5.   Federal Reserve Chairman J

Tidbits September CBOT options  expire today. All September basis contracts and long September futures positions need to be liquidated or rolled forward by the close of business on 28 August, next Thursday. Your merchandiser’s “house rules” may require action before the 28th.   Soybeans to China: Fox News reported late yesterday U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent told President Caleb Ragland of the American Soybean Association and the Governor of Ohio:  “We are in the process of

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 100,000 mts of new crop corn to Colombia and 125,741 mts of new crop corn to Mexico. Soft red winter wheat  was strong yesterday for no apparent reason. In such situations, at the end of the day, market comments report there was a rumor China was shopping for U.S. products, in this case, soft red winter wheat.     Coconut oil  is one of the nine vegetable oils traded worldwide. Coconut oil prices in India h

Tidbits Ukrainian President Zelensky and U.S. President Trump expressed hope that their White House summit yesterday with European leaders could eventually result in trilateral talks with President Putin over ending Russia’s war on Ukraine. Meanwhile, the war continues with no end in sight. Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 124,000 mts of new crop corn to unknown. Pesticides:  The Make America Healthy Again Commission expects to recommend no action

Tidbits Trade estimates for USDA's August S&D on Tuesday: President Trump  will meet President Putin  in Alaska this Friday to discuss tariffs, sanctions, ending the war, etc.   Baker Hughes  reported there were 539 oil and gas drilling rigs in operation last week in the USA. That is 1 less than a week ago and 49 fewer than a year ago. Canada had 180 rigs drilling this past week, 3 more than the previous week, but 37 fewer than a year ago.

Highlights Cease-fire negotiations for the Israel-Hamas war are set to begin today in Cairo. Israel has accepted a “bridging” agreement (a short-term contract) that would allow the two sides to hammer out the details of a cease-fire. Hamas has consistently demanded Israel withdraw its military forces from Gaza before any negotiations can begin.     On Friday, the U.S. Treasury and the State Departments sanctioned nearly 400 individuals and entities supporting Russian war effo

Highlights ProFarmer Tour results and comments by Reuters’ Karen Braun: Minnesota corn yield at 164.9 bu/acre, the tour's lowest since 2012 and down 9% from 2023. USDA has MN corn yield unchanged year-on-year. Pod counts for soybeans were near the 3-year average. “10 stops along my route in southwest Minnesota. Not a single corn field looked good from the road, and that largely held true inside. Corn was yellow and uneven everywhere.”   Iowa corn yield at 192.79 bu/acre, a to

Highlights ProFarmer Tour 2024 results for Illinois were up 5.4% year-on-year, topping the old tour high of 196.96 from 2014. USDA sees it up 9%. Pod counts for soybeans were the tour's highest since 2000 and up nearly 12% the previous year. USDA has up 5%.  Three districts of Iowa show mostly strong potential in western Iowa. But NW corn yields were the tour's lowest since at least 2016, too much early rain. Arlen Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist for StoneX, commented:

Highlights Pro Farmer Nebraska corn yield is up from last year but below 2021's 182.35 record yield. Pod counts for soybeans are a 3 year high though below the 1200+ pods seen in 2018-2021. PFT member Ted Seifried said after 7th stop in Butter Co, Nebraska: “I have been seeing ear worms on almost every stop of the tour but they seem to be getting worse. The yield check on this field was 230.9’ but I also calculated an average of 70 ear worms in a 30’ row.”   Pro Farmer Indian

Highlights ProFarmer Tour field comments Monday:   Average pod counts for soybeans in a 3x3 foot plot in northeast Nebraska (Knox, Cedar, Pierce Counties) on the pftour24 (Pro Farmer tour 2024). Same route as past years through four stops: 2024: 1003 2023: 1295 (1 irrigated) 2022: 1200 (1 irrigated) 2021: 1057   Four stops in northeast Nebraska on pftour24 (Knox, Cedar, Pierce Counties). Corn yield has averaged (in bu/acre) on this exact route through four stops in the last f

Tidbits The 3-day ProFarmer tour starts on Tuesday and will cover OH, IN, IL, IA, SD, NE and MN. State yield estimates will be issued each day. ProFarmer will release its own US national yield estimates on Friday. Out of the past 10 years, ProFarmer's corn yield estimate has been below USDA's final yield by an average of 1.5% and soybean estimates averaged 2.6% below USDA’s final yield. In 2023, Pro Farmer's corn yield estimate was 168.1 bpa vs. USDA's final 177.3 (5.0% under

Friday's Report Today is the first day of the 2023-2024 crop marketing year for corn and soybeans. The USDA is gathering information this week to determine the inventory of all commodities and those numbers will always be reported by the USDA on the last business day in September, which is a Friday, the 29th this year. The inventory number USDA reports for corn and beans will be the 2022 crop marketing year carryover and the 2023 crop marketing year carry-in. As of today, “Ol

Highlights Pro Farmer Final for 2023: These Pro Farmer estimates include factors like weather, maturity & areas outside the tour's coverage. Pro Farmer increased harvested corn acres by 675,000 based on the August FSA data, but they did not adjust bean acres. Soybeans and especially corn are expected to open higher Sunday given Pro Farmer yields and the weather. This will most likely be the most bullish news the corn market will get until the September 12th USDA Crop Product

Highlights Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results Thursday: Drought Monitor: % change of crop area in drought Corn +1, Cotton +8, Sorghum +1, Soybean 0, Spring Wheat 0, Winter Wheat +1

Highlights Pro Farm Tour Results for Wednesday Iowa and Illinois: Tidbits The US manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 47.0; the market expected 48.9. Last month's manufacturing PMI was 49.0. The US services PMI was 51.0; the market expected of 52.1. Last month’s services PMI was 52.3. A PMI number below 50 means the industry is expecting less business in the coming month than the previous month. As a result of this poor economic news. The stock market and many c

Highlights Yesterday’s Pro Farmer reports for Nebraska and Indiana: These much better than expected Pro Farmer yields will make it very difficult for the harvest reports to be “better than expected.” That means we can be more confident that the fall low will be made before harvest begins. So much for the 41 nations who were going to crash the dollar yesterday. The dollar index traded higher yesterday than it has since June 12th. It has gained 4% during a strong uptrend since

Highlights We received this from Andrew late Monday evening: "Western Iowa is fading fast. There was still some very good potential for good yields in our area, but this week will kill that. There are still some decent looking crops out and about but not above average in my opinion. Beans are starting to look like they’re turning, but the plants are just dying. We have had subpar moisture going on year 4. Subsoil was non existent at the start of the season. Corn looks to be h