BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Yesterday, S&P Global reported China’s PMI rose to 51.5 in November, the highest since June as new export orders rose for the first time in four months. The market expected China’s PMI to be only 50.5. This is one the strongest one-month PMI gain ever for any country! China's November factory production expanded at the fastest pace in five months in November. New orders, including those from abroad, led to a solid rise in production, pushing manufacturers' optimism

Tidbits Yesterday’s weakness for corn and beans was a result of speculative profit-taking after four days of gains earlier in the week, options expiration, and merchandiser pre-hedging in the corn. The weakness in wheat made no sense at all.   Yesterday morning, USDA announced the sale of: 116,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China and 136,000 mts of old crop corn to Mexico   Since Monday, the US reported “flash” sales like the above notice totaled 1.347 million mts of beans (

Highlights & Export Sales November CBOT options expire today.   Weekly export sales were huge. According to Karen Braun, it was the fifth-largest corn sales for any week in at least 20 years, while sales of soybeans were the 2nd largest for any week in over a year. Also, yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 227,600 mts of old crop corn to Japan 165,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown 198,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown

Highlights Yesterday morning, USDA announced the sale of: 1,043,940 mts of old crop corn to Mexico 579,120 mts of new crop corn to Mexico 332,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown 175,000 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown   November soybean futures gained 5½¢ on the January beans the past 8 trading sessions. Benson Quinn Commodities, which is owned by ADM, say crushers only have enough beans to keep operating for two weeks. Farmers are not selling beans with the 90¢ drop in f

Highlights The main point of interest on yesterday’s S&D was what would the USDA do with corn and bean yields. The market expected both to be reduced slightly. USDA did lower bean yields one-tenth of a bushel, as expected, but increased corn yields two-tenths of a bushel while the market expected a two-tenths of a bushel reduction.   USDA increased corn demand by 73 million bushels, bringing the total increase in corn demand since 1 November to 813 million bushels! Throw in t

Highlights The Commerce Department reported yesterday morning the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, edged 0.1% higher last month after being unchanged in May, matching market expectations. The data likely sets the stage for the Fed to begin cutting rates in September, as the market widely expects.   In the 12 months ending in June, the PCE price index climbed 2.5%, down from 2.6% in May.   The inflation news

Highlights August options expire tomorrow, Friday, July 26. First notice day for August futures is July 31.   Yesterday morning, the US Government reported a revision of the second quarter GDP of +2.8%; the market expected a +2.1%. The first quarter GDP had been disappointing at +1.4%. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is a measure of consumer spending on goods and services among households. For the second quarter, PCE rate was up 2.6%, down from 3.4% in the first quart

Highlights IKAR increased its Russian wheat production estimate 500,000 mts to 82.0 mil. mts. The trade was looking for IKAR to lower production to as low as 75 million.   SovEcon, aka Andrey Sizov, puts total Russian grain production at 127.4 mil. mts, down 12% from last year. Wheat is expected to be down 13% at 80.7 mil. mts and corn down 12% at 14.6 mil. mts.   In hindsight, it appears Monday’s CBOT weakness was caused by the forecast that this week’s rain in the Western C

Highlights The USA GDP for the first quarter was reported at 1.3% versus 1.2% estimate. Jobless claims were 219,000 to 218,000 expected with the previous week revised up to 216,000. Goods trade balance was deficit $99.4 billion vs. $91.8 billion estimate. Goods and services combined balance is a bit better, but consistently negative since the 90s, meaning US imports more than it exports, and that is one of the reasons the national debt is ever rising. A Federal Reserve “chit-

Highlights Russian officials have halted the transport of loaded bushels sold by RIF, a top 2 exporter, due to quality issues.   Market advisor, Kevin Duling of Maupin, Oregon is a wheat guy for sure. He provided us with this information last evening: It was revealed Grain Flower, the 2nd largest Russian grain exporter, could not meet quality specs on over 1 mil mts of wheat with ships in port expecting to be loaded. The Russian government would not grant phytosanitary permit

Tidbits Odessa is the largest grain handling port on the Black Sea. It is in Southeast Ukraine. A Russian ballistic missile attack struck a residential area in Odessa on Friday, killing at least 20 people and wounding more than 70.   According to the UN, since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, just over 10,000 civilians have been killed in 2 years, including 3,093 women and 587 children.   At the same time, during the 5 months of conflict in the Gaza Strip, more than

Highlights Presidential elections have begun in Russia, voting will last 3 days. There are 4 candidates running in the election. According to the latest data, the level of support for Putin before the election was 82%. Tidbits Allendale’s farmer survey has US plantings of: Corn at 93.5 mil acres, down 1.2% from 2023 (USDA 91.0) Soybeans at 85.8 mil acres, up 2.7% (USDA 87.5) Wheat at 47.6 mil acres, down 3.9% (USDA 47.0)   The Producer Price Index (PPI), the measure of inflat

Tidbits Agrinvest Commodities report Brazil’s producers are losing money when they sell soybeans, but Brazil soybeans are becoming increasingly expensive. There are more talks about how the US weather pattern could bring more risk premium to the market. Ultimately, it seems that soybean futures have already priced in a larger US ending inventory.   In China, soybean meal inventories are rising as the crushers get back to work after the Lunar New Year. Soybean inventories are

Tomorrow begins the third year of the Russian/Ukraine war and Russia is gaining momentum.   When the Japanese attacked the US Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor in 1941, the US not only lost half its navy, but it was woefully unprepared for a war whereas the Japanese military had been expanding its empire throughout China and Southeast Asia since 1931. It took the USA 3 years and 8 months to destroy the Japanese Empire despite placing a priority on the defeat of Nazi Germany ahead

Comment on Marketing and Hedging The Pro Farmer market friendly numbers were released Friday, August 25 after the CBOT closed. The next day, we stated the following: Soybeans and especially corn are expected to open higher Sunday given Pro Farmer yields and the weather. This will most likely be the most bullish news the corn market will get until the September 12th USDA Crop Production and S&D, which might be bullish, but might be bearish. That report is a Tuesday, so we wil

One week from today will be the USDA’s September Crop Production and S&D Reports. All eyes will be on the US corn and beans yields as...

Highlights Pro Farmer Final for 2023: These Pro Farmer estimates include factors like weather, maturity & areas outside the tour's coverage. Pro Farmer increased harvested corn acres by 675,000 based on the August FSA data, but they did not adjust bean acres. Soybeans and especially corn are expected to open higher Sunday given Pro Farmer yields and the weather. This will most likely be the most bullish news the corn market will get until the September 12th USDA Crop Product

Highlights Percent crop area in drought condition this week versus last week: Corn 42% versus 49%. Soybean 38% versus 43% Spring wheat 54% versus 52%. Winter wheat 43% versus 45% Ag Resource Company Illinois and Iowa Crop Survey Video (less than USDA’s August yields): https://twitter.com/i/status/1692175523886301425 China Evergrande is one of the three largest property developers in China and it has been behind on its debt service payments for 17 months. Yesterday, China Ever

Economy and Market Comment First thing this morning, there was a large “dump” of economic data that the world marketplace expected to be gloom and doom for the world’s second largest economy and world’s largest importer of food and energy. Markets around the world were on edge all day Monday and down-right scared Monday evening. The economic data was a little worse than expected for the most part, but not so bad. What shocked the market was the People's Bank of China lowere

Highlights The Corn Belt is expected to have above normal rainfall and below normal temperatures the next two weeks. Don't expect soybeans to be higher two weeks from now unless the weather forecast changes. Moscow's Vnukovo airport temporarily halted all flights Sunday due to a failed drone attack just before noon. The Chonhar Bridge is a major connection from Crimea to the battle front in Southern Ukraine for Russia to bring in weapons and troops from Crimea. The bridge w