BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights The Commerce Department reported yesterday morning the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, edged 0.1% higher last month after being unchanged in May, matching market expectations. The data likely sets the stage for the Fed to begin cutting rates in September, as the market widely expects.   In the 12 months ending in June, the PCE price index climbed 2.5%, down from 2.6% in May.   The inflation news

Highlights August options expire tomorrow, Friday, July 26. First notice day for August futures is July 31.   Yesterday morning, the US Government reported a revision of the second quarter GDP of +2.8%; the market expected a +2.1%. The first quarter GDP had been disappointing at +1.4%. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is a measure of consumer spending on goods and services among households. For the second quarter, PCE rate was up 2.6%, down from 3.4% in the first quart

Highlights IKAR increased its Russian wheat production estimate 500,000 mts to 82.0 mil. mts. The trade was looking for IKAR to lower production to as low as 75 million.   SovEcon, aka Andrey Sizov, puts total Russian grain production at 127.4 mil. mts, down 12% from last year. Wheat is expected to be down 13% at 80.7 mil. mts and corn down 12% at 14.6 mil. mts.   In hindsight, it appears Monday’s CBOT weakness was caused by the forecast that this week’s rain in the Western C

Highlights The USA GDP for the first quarter was reported at 1.3% versus 1.2% estimate. Jobless claims were 219,000 to 218,000 expected with the previous week revised up to 216,000. Goods trade balance was deficit $99.4 billion vs. $91.8 billion estimate. Goods and services combined balance is a bit better, but consistently negative since the 90s, meaning US imports more than it exports, and that is one of the reasons the national debt is ever rising. A Federal Reserve “chit-

Highlights Russian officials have halted the transport of loaded bushels sold by RIF, a top 2 exporter, due to quality issues.   Market advisor, Kevin Duling of Maupin, Oregon is a wheat guy for sure. He provided us with this information last evening: It was revealed Grain Flower, the 2nd largest Russian grain exporter, could not meet quality specs on over 1 mil mts of wheat with ships in port expecting to be loaded. The Russian government would not grant phytosanitary permit

Tidbits Odessa is the largest grain handling port on the Black Sea. It is in Southeast Ukraine. A Russian ballistic missile attack struck a residential area in Odessa on Friday, killing at least 20 people and wounding more than 70.   According to the UN, since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, just over 10,000 civilians have been killed in 2 years, including 3,093 women and 587 children.   At the same time, during the 5 months of conflict in the Gaza Strip, more than

Highlights Presidential elections have begun in Russia, voting will last 3 days. There are 4 candidates running in the election. According to the latest data, the level of support for Putin before the election was 82%. Tidbits Allendale’s farmer survey has US plantings of: Corn at 93.5 mil acres, down 1.2% from 2023 (USDA 91.0) Soybeans at 85.8 mil acres, up 2.7% (USDA 87.5) Wheat at 47.6 mil acres, down 3.9% (USDA 47.0)   The Producer Price Index (PPI), the measure of inflat

Tidbits Agrinvest Commodities report Brazil’s producers are losing money when they sell soybeans, but Brazil soybeans are becoming increasingly expensive. There are more talks about how the US weather pattern could bring more risk premium to the market. Ultimately, it seems that soybean futures have already priced in a larger US ending inventory.   In China, soybean meal inventories are rising as the crushers get back to work after the Lunar New Year. Soybean inventories are

Tomorrow begins the third year of the Russian/Ukraine war and Russia is gaining momentum.   When the Japanese attacked the US Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor in 1941, the US not only lost half its navy, but it was woefully unprepared for a war whereas the Japanese military had been expanding its empire throughout China and Southeast Asia since 1931. It took the USA 3 years and 8 months to destroy the Japanese Empire despite placing a priority on the defeat of Nazi Germany ahead

Comment on Marketing and Hedging The Pro Farmer market friendly numbers were released Friday, August 25 after the CBOT closed. The next day, we stated the following: Soybeans and especially corn are expected to open higher Sunday given Pro Farmer yields and the weather. This will most likely be the most bullish news the corn market will get until the September 12th USDA Crop Production and S&D, which might be bullish, but might be bearish. That report is a Tuesday, so we wil

One week from today will be the USDA’s September Crop Production and S&D Reports. All eyes will be on the US corn and beans yields as...

Highlights Pro Farmer Final for 2023: These Pro Farmer estimates include factors like weather, maturity & areas outside the tour's coverage. Pro Farmer increased harvested corn acres by 675,000 based on the August FSA data, but they did not adjust bean acres. Soybeans and especially corn are expected to open higher Sunday given Pro Farmer yields and the weather. This will most likely be the most bullish news the corn market will get until the September 12th USDA Crop Product

Highlights Percent crop area in drought condition this week versus last week: Corn 42% versus 49%. Soybean 38% versus 43% Spring wheat 54% versus 52%. Winter wheat 43% versus 45% Ag Resource Company Illinois and Iowa Crop Survey Video (less than USDA’s August yields): https://twitter.com/i/status/1692175523886301425 China Evergrande is one of the three largest property developers in China and it has been behind on its debt service payments for 17 months. Yesterday, China Ever

Economy and Market Comment First thing this morning, there was a large “dump” of economic data that the world marketplace expected to be gloom and doom for the world’s second largest economy and world’s largest importer of food and energy. Markets around the world were on edge all day Monday and down-right scared Monday evening. The economic data was a little worse than expected for the most part, but not so bad. What shocked the market was the People's Bank of China lowere

Highlights The Corn Belt is expected to have above normal rainfall and below normal temperatures the next two weeks. Don't expect soybeans to be higher two weeks from now unless the weather forecast changes. Moscow's Vnukovo airport temporarily halted all flights Sunday due to a failed drone attack just before noon. The Chonhar Bridge is a major connection from Crimea to the battle front in Southern Ukraine for Russia to bring in weapons and troops from Crimea. The bridge w

Crop Feedback Received the following last evening from Clint, and we thank him for taking the time to give this crop report: "Roger, we took a family vacation from just north of Cincinnati, Ohio to near Ludington, Michigan. Just driving by I thought crops looked great. Going up last week, I could see quite a bit of corn that hadn't tasseled yet, coming home today, much of it has tasseled and things still looked great. A few places showing some drought stress, but honestly bet

A person is “long” a market if he makes money when the price moves higher. Likewise, if a person is “short” the market, he makes money if the price goes down. If you have unpriced corn in the bin, you are long corn in the cash market. If you have corn in the field that is not priced, you are also long the cash corn market. A person who buys corn futures is long corn in the futures market. If you have a sold corn futures position, you are short the corn futures market. If y

Pipeline Supply refers to the minimum number of bushels or tons of a commodity that are in transit to processing facilities and users to maintain a steady flow of supplies to users. It is the amount of a given commodity in the trucks leaving the farm to the processor, in the trains and barges moving to an export facility or processor, in the processor bins, in the feed delivery trucks, feed bins on the farms, and in the feeders of the feeding floor. No one knows exactly how

Highlights Russia attacked the two primary grain terminals of Ukraine for the fourth night in a row. The governor of Odessa said that two people were killed, 100 tons of dried peas and 20 tons of barley were destroyed. White House National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby told reporters that Russia is currently placing sea mines at the entrances to Ukrainian ports and targeting civilian ships carrying food to and from the region. There are rumors that truckers in Br

Highlights Early Saturday, it was reported the Wagner Group had “captured” the city of Rostov-on-Don in southern Russia. A convoy of the rebel mercenaries were advancing north toward Moscow from the captured city as Putin vowed to crush the mutiny. At midday yesterday, it was announced the Wagner Group commander, Prigozhin, and Putin’s people had reached an agreement that the charge of treason against Prigozhin would be dropped and he was leaving Russia for Belarus, the co