Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Q&A Question from from Travis: As we move forward with this current crop having very good crop ratings… when would you suggest we get rid of old crop? It seems to me nothing moves the market higher, but we can always go lower. I guess I do not understand the big swings in markets from day to day. It makes no sense to me they can find a way to go lower, but struggle immensely to sustain higher prices?? Is there going to be any sort of weather scare to move it? I fear the m

Tidbits Diesel price fell for 8 straight weeks and has declined 33.5 cents per gallon since April 8. For the week ending June 3, the U.S. average diesel fuel price was $3.726 per gallon, 7¢ below the same week last year. On June 5th we recommended you to consider locking-in diesel some, if not all of your fall needs. Purdue University issues their Crop Cost & Return Guide mid-January every year, we shared with you 2024 budgets in February. While it’s most important to know yo

Highlights Yesterday, OPEC+ extended its “voluntary” production cuts through 2025 with the exception of the UAE. Thus, the UAE will increase production by 300,000 barrels per day from January 2025 and all OPEC+ quota will be 39.725 million barrels per day. The increase will be carried out in stages, from January 2025 and until the end of September 2025. Multiple countries in Asia will report today their manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for the continent's bigge

Highlights USDA changes for South America: Argentina’s bean crop unchanged at 50 million mts. Brazil’s bean crop was reduced by 1 million mts to 154, about 6 to 7 million higher than most estimates. Reduced Argentina’s corn crop 2 million mts to 53, which is 6 to 10 million mts above most estimates. Reduced Brazil’s corn crop by 2 million mts to 122 million mts, 9 million mts above CONAB, which will give their May S&D numbers on Monday. Increased Ukraine’s 2023 corn crop by 1

Tidbits Odessa is the largest grain handling port on the Black Sea. It is in Southeast Ukraine. A Russian ballistic missile attack struck a residential area in Odessa on Friday, killing at least 20 people and wounding more than 70. According to the UN, since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, just over 10,000 civilians have been killed in 2 years, including 3,093 women and 587 children. At the same time, during the 5 months of conflict in the Gaza Strip, more than

Tidbits Two Ukrainian attack drones struck the largest oil refinery in southern Russia yesterday. Local authorities in Russia said that a fire had been extinguished at the Volgograd refinery following a drone attack. Oil producer Lukoil said the plant was working as normal. Kory Melby is a former Minnesota farmer who immigrated to Brazil about 24 years ago and became a consultant for everything related to agriculture. Roger first met Kory in February 2003 and has come to re

Highlights Late yesterday US time, the US launched airstrikes against Iran-backed militias in Syria and Iraq as the Mideast war continues to expand. The US struck 85 targets linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ Quds Force and affiliated groups. “Our response began today,” Biden said in a statement, “It will continue at times and places of our choosing.” It was widely rumored at midday Friday that a substantial military strike would be launched within hours.

Q&A: Marketing "Hi Roger, I’m a reader of your posts every morning, but can’t seem to get past that most of your posts are bullish, either about weather, war, SAF, drought all over the world, but all we see is sideways or downward movement of the markets. I like to have a positive attitude also, but we missed out on some decent prices to sell our 2023 crop earlier this year because of what your recommendations and posts were saying, I know you can’t hit the highs all the time

Tidbits Governor of Brazil’s state of Rondônia (NW of Mato Grosso) issued a decree Sunday declaring a state of emergency due to the worst drought the State of Rondônia has ever experienced as crops of coffee, corn, soybeans, beans and rice are being drastically affected. Diego Meurer of Northern Rondônia, in the Amazon region, has never experienced this situation, soybeans ready to harvest with a yield of 8 bags per hectare (7.1 bu per acre), 80% less production compared to

Highlights Mexico is the leading export destination for US corn, receiving from 21% to 32% of US corn exported annually in recent years. US corn export sales to Mexico are at a near record pace. There are six railroad border crossings from the USA to Mexico. Two of them have been closed since 8 AM Monday as the Biden Administration pulled border personnel working the crossings to assist with the illegals crossing in the USA. However, others say the two border crossing point

Highlights Eduardo Vanin 29 November 2023: "Brazilian corn is getting really expensive. Tenders, purchase tenders, went out to South Korea in the last two weeks for December-January shipment at destination prices equivalent to Fob Santos at +80H (Fob premium 80 cents per bushel above the March contract at CBOT)... For the off-season we are hearing business every day in Mato Grosso on a basis well above export parity as well. It seems that the reduction in area and technolog

Highlights There continues to be major differences in the weather forecasts for the dry areas of Brazil. Midday Sunday, some forecasts had the Rondonópolis area receiving 1 to 2 inches rain the first few days of December, while others said not so. By early this morning, the rainfall for early December in the Rondonópolis had been reduced by 20 to 30% while other services continued to predict mostly dry. Unidentified individuals seized the tanker, Central Park, carrying a fu

Soybeans Q&A From a client in Central Missouri: "Good afternoon, Roger, What are your thoughts on why the bean market sold off this past week? Should a guy be concerned moving forward? Corn market going to stay in a sideways trend the next month? Thanks" Thanksgiving week market action is so distorted it is difficult to get a good handle on the technical and fundamental situation. As far as Friday’s market action goes, the probability of rain was increased for the dry are

Highlights OPEC has postponed their Sunday meeting to consider production cuts. That news caused crude oil to sell-off over $3 yesterday before recovering nicely by the close, but weaker over night. Edurado Vanin, an export grain and soybean manager in Brazil reported yesterday China continues to buy US soybeans. He said this week China is looking to buy 8-10 shiploads (~400,000 to 500,000 mts) of US soybeans. Yesterday, brokers in various Asian countries were asking about

Highlights Two weeks ago, 8 out of 10 farmers we talked to said they were expecting less bushels per acre than a year ago. While they would not put a number on the beans, most were saying corn would be 20 to 30 bushels less. That translates to about 10 bushels less per acre. Half of the 1 in 10 said yields would be the same and the same number said better than 2022. Now, 6 out of 10 say corn is not as good as 2022 and the others are split between the same and better. Yield

Highlights OPEC members, Nigeria and Iran, have been cheating on their crude oil quota the past two months while other OPEC members did maintain reduced production. OPEC produced more crude in August than they did in July, but OPEC leaders (aka Saudi Arabia) swept that under the rug to keep prices on an upward trajectory. However, after the same two “villians” over produced again in September, the Saudis “blew the whistle” yesterday and crude oil prices slumped $2 and settled

Tidbits The NOPA August soybean crush was 161.453, 6.35 million bushels less than the market expected. That was an 11-month low and down 6.8% from July and down 2.5% from August of last year, which is not so bad. The soybean oil stocks in the NOPA report were at 1.25 billion pounds vs. 1.483 billion expected, down 18.2% from July and down 20.1% from a year ago. Get this: the soy oil supplies are at the lowest level since October 2017… that was 6 years ago, Folks. To learn a

Highlights July CBOT options expire today. The day before and the day options expire are usually down days for CBOT futures. President Biden at a west coast fundraiser called China’s President Xi a "dictator" Wednesday evening. Xi was not pleased one bit and he let the US Ambassador know that Biden’s comment was "political provocation." In hindsight, that added pressure to the soybeans yesterday on top of the biodiesel blending disappointment. Secretary of Treasury Janet Yel

Highlights If the front three contract months of any commodity futures settles limit up or limit down, the next day’s daily trading limit is expanded. Yesterday, soybean oil was limit-down in more than three months. That means the bean complex will have expanded limits today: Soybeans: $1.60 a bushel Bean meal: $45 a ton Bean oil: 60¢ a pound Yesterday, the EPA issued its Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS) mandate for 2023 through 2025 compliance years. The ethanol blending targe

Highlights The Tech Guy did a great job updating the weather situation with his mailing to his blog followers last evening. If you missed it, read it at: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/tech-guy-weekend-comments-6-18-23 The Bank of China has been on an easy money policy for months to stimulate the economy. Tomorrow morning their time (10 PM Eastern Time today), the interest rate is expected to be reduced by 10 basis points (one tenth of one percent). The easier the mo