BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Free DP for Soybeans From Reuters News: In an unusual offer during the peak of autumn harvesting, ADM is allowing farmers to deliver soy to its facility in Decatur, Illinois, and set the final sale price later, without paying for storage, the two sources said.   In exchange, ADM will take ownership of the soybeans, enabling it to process the crops, they added.   ADM’s offer, known as free deferred pricing, will be available to farmers until the end of October, and those who p

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Tidbits Harvest report:  From Central Ohio, double crop soybeans made 56 bushels after 12 tons of chopped triticale. Unlike most of the Eastern Corn Belt, this field had a 3 inch rain on the first day of August and another 1.5 inches through the first week of September.     Crude oil:  The OPEC+ members met yesterday to decide if they should increase daily production in November by 137,000 or 548,000 barrels per day or some amount in between. Saudi Arabia wanted a big increas

Tidbits The USDA reported the June 2025 crush numbers  on Friday: Soybeans: 197 million bushels, up 7.6% from a year ago, the market expected 196.6 million bushels; Canola: 166,486 tons, down more than 15%; Cottonseed: once refined oil production down 13%; Corn: 498 million bushels in total and 448 million bushels for ethanol, both were down very slightly from a year ago.       The Labor Department’s  statistics chief was fired Friday by Trump. The weaker-than-expected July j

Tidbits U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday said it would be “economic suicide” for Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz  because the Iran’s oil also passes through the strait. Iran is the third-largest oil producer in OPEC, pumping 3.3 million barrels per day. It exports at least 1.6 million bpd, with nearly 80% sold to China.   TankerTrackers.com Sunday afternoon: "Iranian tankers are still loading crude oil, and today’s satellite imagery shows additional Iranian a

Highlights The U.S. eliminated the exemption of tariffs  on goods under $800 shipped directly to consumers. Such goods, mostly from China, face a 120% tariff or a $100 flat fee per postal item, rising to $200 on June 1. This targets e-commerce giants like Shein and Temu.   The U.S. approached China for trade talks, but China insists on canceling 145% tariffs on its goods first, calling Trump’s strategy “extortion.” China retaliated with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods.   Fentanyl

2025 Soybean Market Plan: Specific Reasons and Steps The number of days that November soybeans traded into the top 25% of each calendar year’s price range: 2024 — 83        2023 — 65 2022 — 43 2021 — 31     The number of days that November soybeans traded into the top 25% year’s price range after 21 June: 2024 — 0        2023 — 37 2022 — 3 2021 — 8

World corn supplies are smaller compared to usage than they have been for at least 8 years and significantly tighter than they were in 2022 when July corn traded to $8.24 on 29 April 2022 and December corn traded to $7.66 on 16 May 2022.   The U.S. corn carryover in April of 2022 was projected by USDA to be 35 days’ worth of use. The world carryover that month was projected to be a 93 day supply.           When the 2022-23 marketing year numbers were all settled two years lat

Tidbits Secretary of State Marco Rubio was in Panama  and met with the President yesterday. Rubio presented him with an ultimatum regarding the Panama Canal: President Trump has determined that “The current position of influence and control of the Chinese Communist Party over the Panama Canal area is a threat to the canal,” according to State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce.   “Absent immediate changes regarding Chinese influence, the US will take measures necessary to pr

Ag market futures will resume trading at normal time this evening. Crude oil began trading as its usual time last evening, namely 5 PM Central, and will trade today until its normal close at 4 PM Central.   Wayne Bacon is traveling, so there will be no world FOB grain price and ocean freight rate report this week. Tidbits Much of Argentina’s crop areas received between three and four tenths (~10 mm) on Saturday.     Sunday morning weather update for crop areas of Argentina: "

Tidbits Susan Stroud of No Bull Ag stated Sunday the Biden Administration Friday afternoon said imported used cooking oil will not qualify for tax credits under 45Z. In conclusion, she said, “Theoretically clearing the way for more soybean oil demand.”   We hope she is correct, but we did not see it that clearly. The Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) issued this statement late Friday regarding the Treasury’s 45Z comments issued Friday afternoon:  The U.S. Treasury today relea

Highlights The USDA S&D numbers released yesterday were as neutral as can be for soybeans and wheat, but bullish for corn. When Roger saw the corn numbers, he told Olga corn should be up 10 to 15 cents higher. Corn was up 4 when the report was released and it was 5 to 6 higher for the first 15 minutes after the report was released. Late in the trading session, March corn did trade to $4.50 yesterday and settled at $4.49, up 7¼. March corn traded to $4.52¼ on 2 October after m

Tidbits Bashar al-Assad  has ruled Syria for 24 years after his father ruled for 29 years until his death in 2000.  Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia Sunday after more than 11 years of civil war. Loyalists spoke with a sense of resignation about the implosion of his 24-year rule and with it, the end of decades of rule by minority Alawites - an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam - in majority Sunni Syria.   Opposition forces are asking for an 18 month cooling-off and re-organization perio

Tidbits A 25% tariff on imported Canadian crude oil  would have a major impact on North American energy markets, driving up prices for refiners in the U.S. Midwest and potentially hitting differentials for Canadian oil.   The U.S. imported about 4.0 million barrels of Canadian crude and petroleum products per day in 2024.   Refiners in the Midwest rely heavily on Canadian crude. Those facilities are configured to run heavier oil grades which are preferred for diesel fuel. Abo

Highlights OPEC+ on Thursday has postponed the revival of its oil production by three months, now set to begin in April 2025 instead of January 2025, marking the third such delay amid struggling crude prices and a potential surplus. The planned initial increase of 180,000 barrels per day will now be part of a slower unwinding of cuts expected to conclude in September 2026. Despite this delay, the UAE is permitted to gradually increase its production by 300,000 barrels per day

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA reported the sale of 30,000 mts of old crop soybean oil and 35,000 mts of rice to South Korea.   Cargill began laying off employees across its operations on Tuesday in a drive to slash headcount by 5%. Cargill is facing a downturn in returns in cattle, grains and oilseeds businesses. In Minnesota, home to its headquarters, Cargill plans to terminate 475 employees. Cargill has more than 160,000 employees worldwide, and a spokesperson said al

Highlights Benson Quinn  reported yesterday afternoon: Corn usage the first two months of this marketing year is a 6 year high. Soybean oil stocks are at a 10-year low and crush net profit margins are up 7¢ to just over $1.10 per bushel. Russian wheat conditions are the worst in 10 years, rated 37% poor, as the crop enters mid-season and heads into winter exposure.   The U.S. Labor department  reported yesterday there were 1.11 job openings for every unemployed person in the

Tidbits The Panama Canal uses fresh water from Gatun Lake to fill the locks to raise the ships. The water level of Gatun Lake is right where it normally is this time of year, just shy of 88 feet. A year ago, it was just shy of 80 feet and traffic through the canal was restricted.   The United Nations reported world food prices rose in October to an 18-month high as vegetable oils led to price increases of most food staples.   The 29th Conference of the Parties to the UN Frame

Highlights Today, the CBOT will assign 440 contracts of soybeans for delivery tomorrow on the November futures. One or more customers of J.P. Morgan issued all of them. The oldest long November futures position is 18 October 2024. One of J.P. Morgan’s futures trading clients is rumored to be Cargill.    A customer of ADM Investor Services will be assigned (stopped) 333 of the contracts and the rest (107) were assigned to a customer of J.P. Morgan.   Rough rice contracts zero

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 21,000 mts of old crop soybean oil to Mexico 125,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown 292,800 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown Taiwan purchased 78,200 mts of US wheat in a tender on Thursday.   How does this Wednesday’s export sale of 1.995 million mts of corn match-up with the ten biggest corn sale days in US history: