Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits Yesterday's price weakness for corn, wheat, and beans was a function of residual talk about a deal to get wheat out of Russia and Ukraine (all show, no doubt), fear of Friday’s USDA S&D (normal), and some long position holders taking profit. Early yesterday, soybean export trader with AgrInvest, Eduardo Vanin, said rumors that China had bought a million mts of U.S. soybeans. Later, USDA announced 440,000 mts of beans were booked for export. Maybe another big sale of b

Tidbits Wheat was higher in Europe on Monday. Saudi Arabia cancelled its 550,000 mts wheat tender because prices were too high. Russian Exports: Latvia's government plans to impose a ​300% tariff on grain arriving from ‌Russia and Belarus, the Baltic country's Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs said on Monday. A ban or ‌high ⁠tariffs could cut off a key alternative at a time when Black Sea and Azov Sea routes have been ​paralysed by ​Ukrainian ⁠drone strikes. Andrey Sizov from So

Tidbits Flash Sales: The USDA announced yesterday morning the sale of 136,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China. Biofuel: Vietnam has completed its rollout across all urban areas of a mandatory E10 blending requirement in its most popular gasoline grade, which is expected to eventually generate annual ethanol demand of 240 million gallons. The policy ensures 100% of gasoline grades sold in Vietnam will contain ethanol, beginning in June 2026. The US Grains & BioProducts Counc

Tidbits The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is really a blockade of Iranian ports, not the strait. No ships are allowed to enter or leave an Iranian port, but the U.S. says the strait is open and Iran says the strait is closed. The reality is insurance companies are limiting shipping through the strait. On Sunday, President Trump issued the following statement: "Today, an Iranian-flagged cargo ship named TOUSKA, nearly 900 feet long and weighing almost as much as a

Tidbits Baker Hughes reported there were 548 oil and gas drilling rigs in operation last week in the USA. That is 5 more than last week but 42 fewer than a year ago. Canada had 142 rigs drilling this past week, which was 11 fewer than a week ago and 11 fewer than a year ago. Worldwide, there were 1058 rigs drilling at the end of March, 54 fewer than the previous month and 37 fewer than a year ago. CGB at Gladstone Bluff, Illinois (on The River) Friday evening compared to

Tidbits Iran has adopted a strategy to undermine the global economic system to force the U.S. and Israel to stop their attacks. Iran has repeatedly attacked refineries and oil fields across the Middle East and has succeeded to seal the Strait of Hormuz to keep crude oil, natural gas, and fertilizer from flowing into the world marketplace. The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the more likely the lack of fertilizer will produce food shortages around the world. Iran

Tidbits U.S. Acres: S&P Global Energy raised its corn plantings forecast to 95.2 million acres from its January projection of 95 million acres. USDA’s 2025 planted acres were 98.8 million. S&P projected U.S. 2026 soybean plantings at 85 million acres, up from its January forecast of 84.5 million and up from the 81.2 million acres seeded in 2025. The firm also projected total U.S. wheat plantings for 2026 at 44.050 million acres, 40,000 acres above its January projection but d

Tidbits The USDA will issue its March S&D at 11 AM Central time today. There were new contract highs in the soy complex and also in a few deferred corn futures months amid crude oil spikes. AgRural reports Brazil’s first corn harvest hit 42%, lagging the 54% seen a year earlier. Planting of Brazil's second corn crop reached 82%, compared with 92% a year earlier. While corn plantings in Mato Grosso have reached 94%, just shy of the 96% pace from a year ago. Brazilian farmers h

Tidbits First notice day for March futures is this coming Friday. Panama has reassigned control of two key ports from Chinese operator CK Hutchinson to two European operators after nearly three decades in Chinese hands. CK Hutchison said Panama's decision to cancel key port contracts and grant temporary licences to Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping was “unlawful” as it considers national and international legal action against Panama and third parties. U.S. President Donald Tr

Tidbits The USDA 2026 Agriculture Outlook Conference is scheduled for February 19–20. The USDA Chief Economist will present the department’s initial 2026 outlook for the agricultural economy, commodity markets, trade, and farm income. Reuters News conducted a survey of analysts for this morning’s USDA Outlook Forum S&D projections: Biofuel: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is expected to submit proposed biofuel blending quotas for 2026 to the White House this week for

February S&D Estimates The USDA will release the S&D report on February 10 at 11 AM Central Time. Market estimates U.S. soybean and wheat carryover to decrease about 1%, corn carryover is anticipated to stay unchanged. Note: "Ending Stocks" aka "Carryover." World carryover is seen a bit higher for corn and beans. Brazilian crops estimates may increase while decreasing for Argentina. Estimates compiled by DTN: Q&A: Put Options and Risk Management From a client in Iowa: "Thanks

What is wrong with the way we market ag commodities in this country? When grain is contracted for deferred delivery at a fixed price, the grain elevator hedges those bushels in the futures market. That enables them to pay the farmer the contracted price when he delivers the grain later. For example, in June you execute a December corn HTA (or forward contract) at $4.40 on 50,000 bushels. When you deliver the corn in October, December corn is $3.60. The elevator sells your c

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Tidbits Ukraine: U.S. Sec. of State Rubio led U.S. negotiations with Ukrainian officials in Florida yesterday. Both sides said the talks were productive about a peace deal with Russia with Rubio expressing optimism about the progress. Rubio said the aim is to create a pathway that leaves Ukraine sovereign and independent. Venezuela: Yesterday, Venezuela's President Maduro was requesting a conversation with President Trump according to multiple news sources. Sunday evening,

Tidbits Early last week President Trump authorized covert CIA operations in Venezuela. On Friday, a large crude refinery and chemical facility in Venezuela had a serious explosion, the cause of which is reportedly unknown. On Monday, the U.S. will designate Venezuela’s drug Cartel de Soles as a foreign terrorist organization for its alleged role in importing illegal drugs into the U.S. That designation legally allows a U.S. military strike on any target within the country tha

Market Plan Utilizing Put Options Last weekend, we presented a market plan to lock in a floor price for soybeans near breakeven at no cost upfront while using puts options to capture further price gains should additional price gains become available. A feature of that plan is it removes all stress from catching a price near or even above the high for the year. The first step is to use a HTA to lock-in a floor price. Then place open orders to buy puts at ever higher strike

A trend direction can be bullish or up, bearish or down, or sideways. Also, longer trends have more power and contain smaller trends. Primary trend lasts about a year or more, secondary trend takes a month to several months, and a minor trend goes for days to weeks. Take a look at this 2025 corn chart illustration: However, it is easier to say what the trend was rather than to decide what phase it is now or when it is likely to change. Our friend Allen Gard with Clear Focus H

Tidbits Soybean export: CHS reports that China bought at least four cargoes of soybeans on Friday. Shipments are scheduled for December and January and will originate from both the PNW and the Gulf. A trader with “inside” connections says the USDA has 20 million mts of soybean exports to China plugged into the S&D for this marketing year. If so, the China deal will not result in an increase in exports on the next USDA S&D. OPEC will meet tomorrow to discuss December produ

Free DP for Soybeans From Reuters News: In an unusual offer during the peak of autumn harvesting, ADM is allowing farmers to deliver soy to its facility in Decatur, Illinois, and set the final sale price later, without paying for storage, the two sources said. In exchange, ADM will take ownership of the soybeans, enabling it to process the crops, they added. ADM’s offer, known as free deferred pricing, will be available to farmers until the end of October, and those who p

We've prepared general marketing recommendations for U.S. farmers which are absolutely necessary to know and practice. How to get better at marketing? Everyone’s marketing skills are different. You must learn and improve yours. Start by learning the marketing lingo and practice. Find a friend to talk about markets until the lingo becomes comfortable in conversation. Consider working with an adviser or service that will help you learn. Let’s cover basic marketing techniques be