BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Ukraine:  U.S. Sec. of State Rubio led U.S. negotiations with Ukrainian officials in Florida yesterday. Both sides said the talks were productive about a peace deal with Russia with Rubio expressing optimism about the progress. Rubio said the aim is to create a pathway that leaves Ukraine sovereign and independent.   Venezuela:  Yesterday, Venezuela's President Maduro was requesting a conversation with President Trump according to multiple news sources. Sunday evening

Tidbits Early last week President Trump authorized covert CIA operations in Venezuela. On Friday, a large crude refinery and chemical facility in Venezuela had a serious explosion, the cause of which is reportedly unknown. On Monday, the U.S. will designate Venezuela’s drug Cartel de Soles as a foreign terrorist organization for its alleged role in importing illegal drugs into the U.S. That designation legally allows a U.S. military strike on any target within the country tha

Market Plan Utilizing Put Options Last weekend, we presented a market plan to lock in a floor price for soybeans near breakeven at no cost upfront while using puts options to capture further price gains should additional price gains become available.   A feature of that plan is it removes all stress from catching a price near or even above the high for the year.   The first step is to use a HTA to lock-in a floor price. Then place open orders to buy puts at ever higher strike

A trend direction can be bullish or up, bearish or down, or sideways. Also, longer trends have more power and contain smaller trends. Primary trend lasts about a year or more, secondary trend takes a month to several months, and a minor trend goes for days to weeks. Take a look at this 2025 corn chart illustration: However, it is easier to say what the trend was rather than to decide what phase it is now or when it is likely to change. Our friend Allen Gard with Clear Focus H

Tidbits Soybean export:  CHS reports that China bought at least four cargoes of soybeans on Friday. Shipments are scheduled for December and January and will originate from both the PNW and the Gulf.   A trader with “inside” connections says the USDA has 20 million mts of soybean exports to China plugged into the S&D for this marketing year. If so, the China deal will not result in an increase in exports on the next USDA S&D.   OPEC  will meet tomorrow to discuss December pro

Free DP for Soybeans From Reuters News: In an unusual offer during the peak of autumn harvesting, ADM is allowing farmers to deliver soy to its facility in Decatur, Illinois, and set the final sale price later, without paying for storage, the two sources said.   In exchange, ADM will take ownership of the soybeans, enabling it to process the crops, they added.   ADM’s offer, known as free deferred pricing, will be available to farmers until the end of October, and those who p

We've prepared general marketing recommendations for U.S. farmers which are absolutely necessary to know and practice. How to get better at marketing? Everyone’s marketing skills are different. You must learn and improve yours. Start by learning the marketing lingo and practice. Find a friend to talk about markets until the lingo becomes comfortable in conversation. Consider working with an adviser or service that will help you learn. Let’s cover basic marketing techniques be

Tidbits Harvest report:  From Central Ohio, double crop soybeans made 56 bushels after 12 tons of chopped triticale. Unlike most of the Eastern Corn Belt, this field had a 3 inch rain on the first day of August and another 1.5 inches through the first week of September.     Crude oil:  The OPEC+ members met yesterday to decide if they should increase daily production in November by 137,000 or 548,000 barrels per day or some amount in between. Saudi Arabia wanted a big increas

Tidbits The USDA reported the June 2025 crush numbers  on Friday: Soybeans: 197 million bushels, up 7.6% from a year ago, the market expected 196.6 million bushels; Canola: 166,486 tons, down more than 15%; Cottonseed: once refined oil production down 13%; Corn: 498 million bushels in total and 448 million bushels for ethanol, both were down very slightly from a year ago.       The Labor Department’s  statistics chief was fired Friday by Trump. The weaker-than-expected July j

Tidbits U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday said it would be “economic suicide” for Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz  because the Iran’s oil also passes through the strait. Iran is the third-largest oil producer in OPEC, pumping 3.3 million barrels per day. It exports at least 1.6 million bpd, with nearly 80% sold to China.   TankerTrackers.com Sunday afternoon: "Iranian tankers are still loading crude oil, and today’s satellite imagery shows additional Iranian a

Highlights The U.S. eliminated the exemption of tariffs  on goods under $800 shipped directly to consumers. Such goods, mostly from China, face a 120% tariff or a $100 flat fee per postal item, rising to $200 on June 1. This targets e-commerce giants like Shein and Temu.   The U.S. approached China for trade talks, but China insists on canceling 145% tariffs on its goods first, calling Trump’s strategy “extortion.” China retaliated with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods.   Fentanyl

2025 Soybean Market Plan: Specific Reasons and Steps The number of days that November soybeans traded into the top 25% of each calendar year’s price range: 2024 — 83        2023 — 65 2022 — 43 2021 — 31     The number of days that November soybeans traded into the top 25% year’s price range after 21 June: 2024 — 0        2023 — 37 2022 — 3 2021 — 8

World corn supplies are smaller compared to usage than they have been for at least 8 years and significantly tighter than they were in 2022 when July corn traded to $8.24 on 29 April 2022 and December corn traded to $7.66 on 16 May 2022.   The U.S. corn carryover in April of 2022 was projected by USDA to be 35 days’ worth of use. The world carryover that month was projected to be a 93 day supply.           When the 2022-23 marketing year numbers were all settled two years lat

Tidbits Secretary of State Marco Rubio was in Panama  and met with the President yesterday. Rubio presented him with an ultimatum regarding the Panama Canal: President Trump has determined that “The current position of influence and control of the Chinese Communist Party over the Panama Canal area is a threat to the canal,” according to State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce.   “Absent immediate changes regarding Chinese influence, the US will take measures necessary to pr

Ag market futures will resume trading at normal time this evening. Crude oil began trading as its usual time last evening, namely 5 PM Central, and will trade today until its normal close at 4 PM Central.   Wayne Bacon is traveling, so there will be no world FOB grain price and ocean freight rate report this week. Tidbits Much of Argentina’s crop areas received between three and four tenths (~10 mm) on Saturday.     Sunday morning weather update for crop areas of Argentina: "

Tidbits Susan Stroud of No Bull Ag stated Sunday the Biden Administration Friday afternoon said imported used cooking oil will not qualify for tax credits under 45Z. In conclusion, she said, “Theoretically clearing the way for more soybean oil demand.”   We hope she is correct, but we did not see it that clearly. The Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) issued this statement late Friday regarding the Treasury’s 45Z comments issued Friday afternoon:  The U.S. Treasury today relea

Highlights The USDA S&D numbers released yesterday were as neutral as can be for soybeans and wheat, but bullish for corn. When Roger saw the corn numbers, he told Olga corn should be up 10 to 15 cents higher. Corn was up 4 when the report was released and it was 5 to 6 higher for the first 15 minutes after the report was released. Late in the trading session, March corn did trade to $4.50 yesterday and settled at $4.49, up 7¼. March corn traded to $4.52¼ on 2 October after m

Tidbits Bashar al-Assad  has ruled Syria for 24 years after his father ruled for 29 years until his death in 2000.  Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia Sunday after more than 11 years of civil war. Loyalists spoke with a sense of resignation about the implosion of his 24-year rule and with it, the end of decades of rule by minority Alawites - an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam - in majority Sunni Syria.   Opposition forces are asking for an 18 month cooling-off and re-organization perio

Tidbits A 25% tariff on imported Canadian crude oil  would have a major impact on North American energy markets, driving up prices for refiners in the U.S. Midwest and potentially hitting differentials for Canadian oil.   The U.S. imported about 4.0 million barrels of Canadian crude and petroleum products per day in 2024.   Refiners in the Midwest rely heavily on Canadian crude. Those facilities are configured to run heavier oil grades which are preferred for diesel fuel. Abo

Highlights OPEC+ on Thursday has postponed the revival of its oil production by three months, now set to begin in April 2025 instead of January 2025, marking the third such delay amid struggling crude prices and a potential surplus. The planned initial increase of 180,000 barrels per day will now be part of a slower unwinding of cuts expected to conclude in September 2026. Despite this delay, the UAE is permitted to gradually increase its production by 300,000 barrels per day