Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits July CBOT options expire Friday. All long July futures and July basis contracts must be liquidated or rolled no later than Monday to avoid any possibility of being assigned delivery. July corn was a bit stronger than September corn yesterday. That is good if you have July futures or basis contracts to roll to September. Flash sales: Yesterday morning, the USDA reported the sale of 30,000 mt of old crop corn and 70,000 mts of new crop corn to Mexico. Livestock: The num

Tidbits July corn traded down to $4.12½ yesterday morning, but settled 6¼¢ above the low and up 1¼¢ for the day. A new low followed by a higher daily settlement is a “hook reversal” and a noteworthy technical trend change signal. While it is not as reliable a trend changer as a “key reversal,” we will take it. The settlement 6¼¢ above the low is very significant. Corn basis firmed again Monday and we expect it will continue to firm until futures rally at least 20 to 30¢ to mo

Tidbits New ‌World screwworm ​has been found and confirmed in a ​calf ​in Texas, the ‌USDA said ​on ​Wednesday ⁠evening, exposing ​the ​nation's ⁠cattle herd to ⁠a ​serious ​new threat. That screw worm contributed to yesterday’s late weakness in corn. The U.S. typically imports over a million cattle from Mexico every year. The import suspension contributed to rising beef prices by tightening the supply of beef cattle. An expansive U.S. outbreak would further tighten the suppl

Tidbits Farm bankruptcies hit a six-year high in April, showing growing financial stress. During the month of April, 62 Chapter-12 bankruptcies were filed, which is a 130% jump from April 2025 and the highest monthly total since February 2020. Chapter 12 bankruptcy is a specialized legal framework designed specifically for "family farmers" or "family fishermen". It allows financially distressed agricultural producers to reorganize their debts and avoid liquidation, offering a

Tidbits Iran: President Trump announced in a post yesterday that he was extending the deadline for a deal with Iran until 8 PM Eastern Time on 6 April at the request of the Iranian Government because talks are ongoing and going very well, despite erroneous statements to the contrary. Some sources are saying the chances of success in achieving a ceasefire remain low, as Iran and the United States are making demands that are unacceptable to each other. China: President Trump an

Tidbits Four years ago today the war between Russia and Ukraine began. After being invaded by Hitler’s Germany in June 1941, the Soviet Union defeated Germany in 3 years and 11 months. After Japan destroyed most of the U.S. Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor, the U.S. defeated Imperial Japan in 3 years and 8 months. Wars just are not fought to win any more. That is why the Vietnam War lasted 13 years and Afghanistan was a 20 year war. Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announ

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 100,000 mts of new crop corn to Colombia and 125,741 mts of new crop corn to Mexico. Soft red winter wheat was strong yesterday for no apparent reason. In such situations, at the end of the day, market comments report there was a rumor China was shopping for U.S. products, in this case, soft red winter wheat. Coconut oil is one of the nine vegetable oils traded worldwide. Coconut oil prices in India hav

Tidbits A federal appeals court granted a Trump administration request yesterday to reinstate the tariffs struck down by the U.S. Court of International Trade on Wednesday ruling President Trump overstepped his authority when he cited the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as justification for levying tariffs. The IEEPA authorizes the President to act when an unusual and extraordinary threat to the United States, originating in whole or substantial part

Upcoming Reports CONAB is Brazil’s USDA and it will issue its monthly crop production report early Thursday morning followed by USDA’s at noon Eastern time. There are rumors in the market that CONAB's corn production numbers may be reduced much more than the market expects. Analysts say the USDA, on the other hand, is showing a “more optimistic scenario than reality” as Brazil has a very significant reduction of safrinha corn acres. USDA's National Agricultural Statistical

Crop Feedbacks Bill in North Central Kentucky called Roger yesterday shortly after noon to let us know that ADM at Silver Grove, KY, across the Ohio River from Cincinnati, pushed (firmed) their soybean bid to $13.00 cash, which was 13¢ firmer than their posted offer. Dave in Northeast Illinois has cut 2200 acres of beans which averaged 55 bu, down 7 bushels from the past two year average. Thanks, Dave. Matt in Northwest/Central Ohio harvested 15 tons of cereal rye forage la

Highlights The USDA’s weekly export sales had corn and wheat sales higher than the top end of the range of expectations. It is not a miracle; North America has always been the wheat supplier of last result. The January sharply increased insurance rates for ships in the Black Sea and increased export tax on Russian wheat, it was time for Canada and USA to get some wheat sold. Argentina and Ukraine are the world’s #3 and #4 corn exporters and they both have serious problems exp

A big thanks to Jeremy Frost (jfrost@banghartproperties.com 605 295 3100) and Jake Kubela (jake@kubelahedging.com 701 403 3472) for explaining their marketing services and providing the market commentary for our mailing on Friday and Saturday. Roger and Olga were in Washington D.C. with their daughter and son-in-law who wanted to get first-hand exposure to American History and culture. If there is even a remote possibility now or in the future that Jeremey or Jake might be a

Highlights The USDA numbers were very neutral. There were no changes to the national average prices expected to be paid to farmers for corn, wheat or soybeans. The USDA did not reduce corn exports and did not raise Russian wheat production. Big surprise! The UN is negotiating a year long deal for the export of Ukrainian grain and the market actually thinks it will happen and speculators are selling wheat. Big mistake! Russia said it is withdrawing troops from west of the D