BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights This is Friday before a harvest weekend. Look at the weather across the Corn Belt and decide if pre-hedging pressure is a reason for you to make a minor adjustment to your marketing plan for the day. Also, the USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks Report is Monday at 10 AM Mountain Time.      Chinese leaders pledged to deploy “necessary fiscal spending” to meet their economic growth target of 5%. There are reports that China is considering injecting 1 trillion yuan of capita

Highlights The International Grains Council (IGC) predicts record large global grain production and record large global consumption for the 2024-25 marketing year. More importantly, world carryovers (aka ending stocks) are projected at a 10-year low.   IGC’s report on Wednesday listed total grains (wheat and coarse grains) output at 2.315 billion mts and consumption at 2.325 billion mts with the carryover down to 581 million mts, the lowest since 2014-15.   The records are fo

Carryover and S&D The three most important factors in governing the future price direction of a given commodity are carryover, carryover, carryover. What is the current carryover, aka ending stocks?  Is it more than enough to last until the next crop is harvested? If not, the price will rise to make sure the world does not run out of that commodity. That is the job of the market; to make sure we never run out of a commodity. Higher prices require users to reduce consumption b

Highlights All the weakness in crude oil prices is based upon the gloom and doom predictions for the worlds’ economy, most especially China’s economy, whose industrial PMI for September was 50.4, up 0.6 from July. As far as the US economy goes, who thinks lower interest rates coming in less than two weeks will slow down economic growth?   Goldman Sachs cut its expected crude oil price range by $5 a barrel for 2025. They expect crude to average $80 per barrel next year with a

Highlights Most markets except financials will be closed on Monday, September 2, due to the Labor Day holiday. Trade will resume Monday evening. The U.S. Department of Commerce revised second quarter GDP up 0.2% to +3.0% of growth. GDP in the first quarter of 2024 was +1.4%. Consumer spending rose 2.9% in the second quarter versus 1.5% in the first quarter 2024. U.S. jobs figures yesterday show the number of Americans filing for new unemployment benefits slipped last week, bu

Highlights ProFarmer Tour results and comments by Reuters’ Karen Braun: Minnesota corn yield at 164.9 bu/acre, the tour's lowest since 2012 and down 9% from 2023. USDA has MN corn yield unchanged year-on-year. Pod counts for soybeans were near the 3-year average. “10 stops along my route in southwest Minnesota. Not a single corn field looked good from the road, and that largely held true inside. Corn was yellow and uneven everywhere.”   Iowa corn yield at 192.79 bu/acre, a to

Highlights NOPA members crushed 182.881 million bushels of soybean in July, which was 442,400 bushels more than the market expected. That was 5.5% more than last year’s record large July crush. Better yet, oil stocks were 1.499 billion pounds, which was 109 million fewer pounds than the market expected.   Soybean oil and meal basis in Brazil is sharply higher this week. The resulting improving crush margins for the beans makes Brazil’s small bean supplies for export smaller y

Tidbits Strategies Grain lowered their EU soft wheat production estimate by 5.8 million to 116.5 million tons, 8.4% lower from 2023.   The USDA expects the EU 2024/25 wheat crop to decline by 6% from the previous year to 127.4 million tons. USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) also revised its projection for the 2024/25 EU corn crop 4.2 million lower to 59.8 million mts. Overall, the EU is projected to produce 267.3 million tons of grain, down more than 8 million from t

Highlights StoneX predicts the US corn will yield 182.3 (USDA 181) and beans 52.6 (USDA 52). The US soybean crush in June was 183.7 million bushels, 1.1 million less than the market expected, but 8.7 million bushels more than a year ago.      The corn crush was 495 million bushels with 442 million bushels for ethanol, up slightly from a year ago. Canola crush was 198,005 tons, well above the 158,305 tons crushed a year ago.   Cottonseed once refined oil production was 30.1 mi

Highlights August options expire tomorrow, Friday, July 26. First notice day for August futures is July 31.   Yesterday morning, the US Government reported a revision of the second quarter GDP of +2.8%; the market expected a +2.1%. The first quarter GDP had been disappointing at +1.4%. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is a measure of consumer spending on goods and services among households. For the second quarter, PCE rate was up 2.6%, down from 3.4% in the first quart

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 510,000 mts of new crop soybeans and 150,000 mts of new crop soybean cake and meal to the unknown. The Northern Plains over the next 2-3 weeks are going from too wet and too cool to maybe too hot and too dry. NOAA weather outlook for August has higher than normal temperature and normal precipitation expected, it is about the same idea for Aug-Sept-Oct period:

Highlights The USDA will issue its July S&D at 11 AM Central time today.   Yesterday morning, the government reported that inflation during June declined 0.1%; the market expected it to be up 0.1% (measured by Customer Price Index or CPI). For the past 12 months, the inflation rate was 3.0%; the market expected 3.1%. The expectation of an interest rate cut in September for the past two weeks capped with yesterday’s better-than-expected inflation number sent the stocks sharply

Highlights August board crush margin jumped 15½¢ yesterday; that is 15½¢ more profit per bushel of beans crushed.   July corn settled ¾ of a cent above September corn yesterday after gaining 2¾¢ on the September. A week ago, there was more than 10¢ of carry from July to September. Old crop corn just went inverted.    Despite mostly good weather for corn in the Corn Belt and very disappointing weekly exports sales for corn, corn traded smartly higher yesterday. Wheat exports s

Highlights At 11 AM Central Time today, the USDA will release its Actual Planted Acres, Quarterly Grain Inventory as of June 1st, and US Wheat Production.   Market expectations for today’s reports are that acres and stocks will be up. Corn acreage average expectation is at 90.3 million vs. 90 in March; bean acres are estimated at 86.75 million vs. 86.5 in March; spring wheat acres are estimated at 11.34 million, up slightly from March intentions of 11.335 million.   Markets w

Highlights The BN and UP railroads are holding-up rail traffic at the US/Mexico border, which may have stopped all corn by rail to Mexico to halt illegal entry to the USA on freight trains. The railroads halted rail service to Mexico back in December due to illegal immigration. Who would have thought Biden’s policies on illegal entry to the USA would disrupt corn exports?   There are 163 million bushels of corn sold to Mexico yet to be shipped this marketing year. That is an

Highlights Yesterday morning, CONAB reduced their Brazilian soybean crop estimate 330,000 mts to 147.35 mil. (USDA at 153, down 1 mil.), but increased Brazil’s corn production by 2.5 mil. mts to 114.14 mil. mts (USDA at 122, unchanged).   Cash grain export trader for Agrinvest, Eduardo Vanin, said Thursday: The Brazil corn program is significantly smaller than last year. The corn program last year experienced a significant (export)  surge during JAS  (July, August, September)

Tidbits Diesel price fell for 8 straight weeks and has declined 33.5 cents per gallon since April 8. For the week ending June 3, the U.S. average diesel fuel price was $3.726 per gallon, 7¢ below the same week last year. On June 5th we recommended you to consider locking-in diesel some, if not all of your fall needs. Purdue University issues their Crop Cost & Return Guide mid-January every year, we shared with you 2024 budgets in February. While it’s most important to know yo

Highlights The first crop condition report is expected Monday from USDA and the anticipation of high crop condition ratings for US corn, beans and spring wheat pressured the market yesterday. Analysts say the weather outlook is nearly ideal into the middle of June.   Yesterday’s USA PCE (personal consumption expenditure) Price Index for April was +0.2%, as expected, and up 2.8% on an annualized basis, just as expected. This report’s core reading is the Fed’s favored inflation

Highlights We had good news about the US economy yesterday morning. S&P Global (an independent agency) reported yesterday morning that its U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks both the manufacturing and services sectors, jumped to 54.4 this month. That is the highest level since April 2022 and well above 51.3 in April 2024.   A reading above 50 indicates economic expansion. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index little changed at 51.1. The sharp increase

Highlights Wheat Quality Council Tour: Kansas has biggest wheat crop since 2021 Estimated production 290 million bushels (USDA 267.9); Last year Kansas produced 201 million bushels; This year’s yield is seen at 46.5 bushels per acre (USDA 38). Tidbits Agronomists in Central Ohio say the soft red winter wheat crop is flowering 15+ days early. Thanks to Gary for the tip. Set the basis three weeks before the soft red winter wheat harvest starts in your area.   On Wednesday, SovE