BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights CONAB put Brazil’s bean crop at 155.3 mil mts, down from their December estimate of 160 (USDA 161 in Dec). Their corn production is 117.6 mil. mts, down from 118.5 (USDA 129 in Dec).   Forty-two days ago, Kalmbach Feeds in Upper Sandusky, Ohio corn basis (and Poet’s at Fostoria) was -60Z (60¢ under Dec corn futures). Today, Kaklmbach offered one of our clients 0H (zero basis to the March futures). March corn was 25¢ over the December corn on November 29th. That is

Highlights The weather outlook for Brazil’s main growing area looks to be turning drier and warmer next week. Watch the number of rain days in the 10 day forecast we report every day. The first two locations, Rondonópolis and Campo Grande, are in the central part of Brazil where most of the beans and corn are grown.     India is the world’s largest user of urea and it imports ~30% of its urea, which makes it the world’s largest importer of urea. What India pays for urea is th

Highlights The majority of the weather forecasts predict good rains in the dry soybean areas of Brazil beginning as soon as Sunday. Here is the wettest example: "Widespread rainfall over the past five days across the Brazilian soy belt. Models have accurately predicted relief for crops. GFS calls for high precip volumes coming in the next 10 days, with over 10 inches for Mato Grosso, major producing state. Cooling temperatures are maintaining adequate soil moisture for crops

Tidbits There was no USDA export announcement of a large sale of any commodity during the CBOT breakfast break yesterday morning. That apparently was the cause for the market trading smartly lower when trading resumed at 8:30 Central. A large export sales announcement 9 of the past 10 days coupled with the worst growing season in Brazil since they started planting beans 60 years ago, was not enough for the market to keep a positive price outlook.   The weather models turned a

Highlights Argentina devalued its currency while everyone was asleep Wednesday morning, which is when a devaluation should be done. The Argentina Peso was devalued by 54%; now 801 pesos per US$. The market was afraid the devaluation would cause a lot of Argentine agriculture products to hit the international market. That could not happen. While Argentina does have a little wheat to sell, it has been importing corn and beans from Brazil for many months. Plus, export permits we

Highlights Smithfield canceled its contracts with 26 US hog farms. Yesterday morning, USDA announced the sale of 372,000 mts of old crop soft red winter wheat and 136,000 mts of old soybeans to China Direct quote from www.oilprice.com : "Prices of Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate were down nearly 4% on Wednesday as an unexpected and significant increase in U.S. gasoline inventories added to concerns about lagging demand. Wednesday’s prices reflect the lowest levels

Highlights Eduardo Vanin 29 November 2023: "Brazilian corn is getting really expensive. Tenders, purchase tenders, went out to South Korea in the last two weeks for December-January shipment at destination prices equivalent to Fob Santos at +80H (Fob premium 80 cents per bushel above the March contract at CBOT)...   For the off-season we are hearing business every day in Mato Grosso on a basis well above export parity as well. It seems that the reduction in area and technolog

Highlights OPEC has postponed their Sunday meeting to consider production cuts. That news caused crude oil to sell-off over $3 yesterday before recovering nicely by the close, but weaker over night.   Edurado Vanin, an export grain and soybean manager in Brazil reported yesterday China continues to buy US soybeans. He said this week China is looking to buy 8-10 shiploads (~400,000 to 500,000 mts) of US soybeans. Yesterday, brokers in various Asian countries were asking about

Yesterday’s news was good for a market wanting lower interest rates to boost economic activity. The stock market was strong as it should have, but crude oil was weak despite the improved economic outlook as Russia is “set” to reduce its crude oil export duty by 5.7%, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday afternoon. The new duty, starting in December, is “set” to the equivalent of $3.37 per barrel or $24.7 per mt. Grains probably suffered a profit-taking spree triggered by predictio

Highlights Fears over a wider Middle East conflict continue to mount as Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed responsibility for missile and drone attacks targeting a Red Sea shipping port in southern Israel yesterday. Israel claimed it killed the top two leaders of HAMAS. As expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged yesterday and Chairman Jerome Powell talked with a softer tone than in the past about how high interest rates may go and for how long. AD

Highlights By a vote of 220 to 209, the House of Representatives elected a Speaker in the person of Louisiana Republican Mike Johnson, whose pedigree looks like Jim Jordan without as many political battle scars. He is against financial aid to Ukraine, abortion, gay marriage, wants to close the borders, forebid gender-related surgery and hormone treatment, prohibits mask mandates on airplanes, and tighten immigration standards. He probably was able to get enough votes because

Highlights A sea of red (lower prices) across world stock markets and another surge in U.S. Treasury yields on Wednesday ensured a bearish open in Asia today. So far this marketing year, US ethanol production is above last year and the five year average while ethanol inventory is below last year and the five year average. Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 132,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China. Jim Jordan received two less votes for Speaker yesterday tha

Highlights Now that the October USDA report has been issued, we can be quite confident that the futures have made their lows for the year. Soybeans did it on May 31st and corn did it on September 19th. The USDA has lowered yields for both beans and corn four consecutive months. We will get a November production update (yield, harvested acres) from USDA, but there will be no USA production information on the December S&D, just demand changes for USA crops; the USDA will updat

Highlights Ukraine’s leadership is highly stressed by Speaker McCarthy’s removal from office. They claim McCarthy, Jeffries and Biden made a secret deal last week to send more money to Ukraine. Supposedly, McCarthy confirmed yesterday the secret deal for Ukraine was true. Now, this money will be delayed, or could be rejected completely with a new speaker. About two weeks ago, Ukraine set-up a temporary “humanitarian corridor” for cargo vessels, and several ships have departe

A micro natural gas futures and options contract will begin trading on November 6th. The micro contract size will be 1,000 mbtu (million British Thermal Units). The current natural gas contract is 10,000 mbtu, and the mini-contract is 2,500 mbtu. Highlights The Panama Canal Authority said a surcharge for water use it had applied to conserve water during a prolonged drought will be reduced starting in October. The waterway has imposed a series of restrictions this year, inclu

Highlights Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested interest rates will be “higher for longer” and could stay above 5% this year and next. Yesterday, the Fed left interest rates unchanged, as expected, but Powell did not rule out another interest-rate hike this year. Ukraine said they are ready to resume grain from exports from Black Sea Ports using a temporary corridor, with the first dry bulk carriers in place. The bulk carriers Resilient Africa and Aroyat arrived

More on DP Contracts Yesterday, we wrote about a “dump” charge on DP grain. Several folks asked what was a “dump” charge? We have not commonly seen dump charges since the large supplies of the 2016 when the US produced 15.148 billion bushels and the carry-in (left over from the previous marketing year) was 1.737 billion, a 46 day supply. When it was all said and done, the 2016 corn crop carryout was 2.293 billion bushels, a 57-day supply. Presently, the USDA projects the 2

Highlights Dayton Cargill’s corn syrup plant is grinding 145,000 bushels per day, the largest daily grind in about three years. Wednesday evening, Cargill had 50,000 bushels inventory after receiving their first load of new crop corn earlier in the day. They are paying $6.50 for corn through Saturday. Patrick was at Dayton Cargill a little after 8 AM yesterday morning and there was no line of trucks. It certainly would be logical to expect a line of trucks after Cargill jump

Corn Carry Carry is the return storage. In the futures market, it is measured by the spread (price difference) between a pair of futures contracts. Capturing the carry is a major profit center for commercial grain handlers. Back in the day when farmers stored 30,000 to 50,000 bushels max, managing carry did not have the possibility to make or cost farmers a lot of money. Things are different now. Not only do some farmers store hundreds of thousands of bushels, the price of a

Highlights Pro Farm Tour Results for Wednesday Iowa and Illinois: Tidbits The US manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 47.0; the market expected 48.9. Last month's manufacturing PMI was 49.0. The US services PMI was 51.0; the market expected of 52.1. Last month’s services PMI was 52.3. A PMI number below 50 means the industry is expecting less business in the coming month than the previous month. As a result of this poor economic news. The stock market and many c